"When I decided not to sign, I knew injuries were always a possibility. Two other pitchers drafted after me in the first round last year were picked by their teams despite just having undergone Tommy John surgery. This is just a temporary setback." - Brady Aiken (via the Players' Tribune)
It is becoming more and more apparent that the Houston Astros' medical evaluation of left-handed pitcher Brady Aiken, the top overall draft pick of the 2014 June amateur draft, was spot on. Because of that medical evaluation, the Astros lowered their offer to the 17-year-old (at the time) by over $1M. Therefore, Aiken walked away. After just one very abbreviated start at IMG Academy (where he landed in order to prep for the 2015 draft) earlier this month, Aiken underwent Tommy John surgery on Wednesday. Aiken revealed the surgery in The Players' Tribune, a media publication for athletes to express themselves in their own words, founded by Derek Jeter. He also tweeted out that his recovery is now beginning.
Aiken was taken number one overall in the 2014 MLB Amateur Draft by the Astros but found himself unsigned by the July deadline because of concerns raised by doctors hired by the Astros over his arm health. The doctors contended that his left elbow construction did not look good on X-rays, and the Astros offered him significantly less than the initially-agreed-upon deal of $6.5 million.
According to Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle (in an article just after the draft last July), the Astros employed five doctors (three not with the team, including Dr. James Andrews) who raised major concerns. Drellich noted that someone familiar with the evaluations noted there was a “cut-and-dry” issue with his throwing elbow and added, “He may have some [of the UCL], but not much.”
The situation did not sit well with a number of stakeholders. The Astros were not able to get the advantage "earned" by them with a pick in their system (although they were compensated with a second overall pick in the 2015 draft). Win-hungry Astros fans rolled their eyes at losing a chance at what some called the next Clayton Kershaw. In addition, the Astros also lost another draft pick, Jacob Nix, who had agreed to terms that were not tenable without Aiken's taking of under-slot value. The MLB Players Association vilified the Astros as using the supposed injury as negotiation leverage, eventually leaving Aiken and Nix without contracts. Baseball fans raised eyebrows at the process that allowed it all to happen.
So many players undergo Tommy John surgery and go on to amazing careers, including Tommy John himself. Whatever was wrong with the elbow, baseball fans can only hope that the young, talented pitcher will fulfill his promise. No matter where drafted and where he lands, he deserves a chance. The Astros were in the wrong place at the wrong time. They may have dodged a proverbial bullet, or they still may regret the decision in four or five years when Aiken at age 23 is fully-recovered and mowing down every hitter in sight.