The Portland Trail Blazers wasted no time this offseason trading away their team. Free agency hasn’t even started yet and their roster looks completely different. Just before the draft, Portland swapped small forward Nicolas Batum with the Charlotte Hornets for Noah Vonleh and Gerald Henderson. On draft day, they traded 23rd pick Rondae Hollis-Jefferson along with veteran Steve Blake for Mason Plumlee and 40th pick Pat Connaughton. The addition of Plumlee hints at a possible Robin Lopez exit, resulting in a hit to the Blazer defense.
Along with Lopez likely to sign elsewhere this offseason, Arron Afflalo, Wesley Matthews and LaMarcus Aldridge all have a chance of leaving Rip City. Afflalo opted out of his contract and several teams have expressed interest in the shooting guard, like the New York Knicks.
Wesley Matthews, a Portland fan favorite, hasn’t indicated his intentions thus far but it’s known that he’s seeking a long-term deal for a lot of money. Portland may not be able to supply this sort of contract to both Matthews and Aldridge, especially since Lillard is becoming the new face of the franchise and is fully expected to earn a max deal.
Going into the 2015-2016 season, the Blazers have a little over $40 million in cap space. This is with Lillard’s contract only totaled at $4.2 million. The following season is when he’ll earn his max contract. Blazer management has made it clear Lillard will receive big money, so they must make sure that for the 2016-2017 season, there’s plenty of cap space available for him. Aldridge, Matthews and Lillard can’t all pocket max contracts if they don’t want the rest of the team to be inexpensive, low end role players. Even with the new TV contract raising salary caps, they won’t raise enough for Portland to afford everyone.
The big story for Portland this free agency period though is whether or not they can hold onto Aldridge. He’s been the primary offensive force for the Blazers for quite some time, and his absence would create extensive problems for them. The only way to replace Aldridge is with another player of his caliber, a free agent like Kevin Love, Marc Gasol or even Greg Monroe. Portland has shown interest in both Love and Monroe, but Love appears to be off the table already. He’s publicized his preference that, despite opting out of his contract, Love intends to stay in Cleveland with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.
As far as to what steps the Blazers should take this offseason, there’s a lot of ‘ifs and buts’. The perfect scenario is where Aldridge and Matthews stay, but each restructure their deals to help with the looming cap space issues. Other stars have done so before, like Tim Duncan in 2012 in order to keep San Antonio under the tax line. This doesn’t seem likely though when Aldridge is receiving huge offers from other teams, and Matthews is keen on getting a raise from his previous five-year, $32.5 million contract.
Even if Lopez and Afflalo leave, their roles on the team can be filled. Matthews and Aldridge, on the other hand, not so much. Portland’s playoff performance illustrates what the team is like without Wes, and no Aldridge means no consistent offensive production from Portland. His presence in the paint prevents Blazer guards and forwards from launching three-pointers every time down the court. Like the Warriors have, Portland needs to find a nice balance between outside shooting and down low scoring. They can’t do so without someone like LA down low.
On the contrary, if Aldridge signs with another Western Conference team (Dallas, Los Angeles and San Antonio are leading the charge), Portland will need to make some serious moves to retain their position in the West. As mentioned earlier, they’ll need to sign a star big man as a substitute for Aldridge. Also, they now need a new small forward with Batum in Charlotte. Matthews performs better at the two guard, and Henderson isn’t big enough to play the three. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson appeared to be Batum’s replacement on the defensive end, but he’ll never get the chance to play. His replacement Pat Connaughton is in the same position as Henderson, coming in at 6’5”, there’s no way he effectively runs the small forward spot.
Portland has yet to express interest in any small forwards, unfortunately. There are a lot on the market, however, like Jimmy Butler, DeMarre Carroll and Draymond Green. Hopefully the Blazers pursue one small forward to assume the starting position; otherwise, they’re going to be running an undersized lineup with Matthews, Henderson or Connaughton at the three. Or, a bench player like Dorell Wright or Alonzo Gee could be promoted to starter.
In the end, Portland’s lineup will see some major changes this offseason, more than it already has. It’s key that they keep Aldridge, but that doesn’t seem likely. Lillard appears to be the only player completely sure he’s staying with the Blazers. An entirely new lineup could mean trouble the first season or so as they develop better team chemistry, resulting in no playoffs in Rip City for a while.