Many Boston Celtics fans fear that their team is headed for long-term mediocrity, and that doesn't sit well with the fan base of NBA's most storied franchise with a record 17 championship banners. This summer should be a chance to change that, but so far their fear seems to be well grounded.
After getting swept by King James and his gang of merry Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs, the Celtics now know that they are pretty far from being a perennial contender like they were in the Paul Pierce-Kevin Garnett-Rajon Rondo era.
You can say that the rebound has been pretty quick since the team was able to even qualify in the same season they said goodbye to Rondo and Jeff Green. But it also kept the team out of the lottery, and that should be a no-no, when you are trying to find a star to rebuild around – or at least some great talent for the roster.
So the Celtics entered this summer with a lot of young players and a lot of draft picks, four picks for this year alone, but none of them in the lottery.
No trades for the Celtics on draft night
For GM Danny Ainge, draft night became a story about the big trade that didn't happen. Reportedly he offered the Charlotte Hornets six picks, among them four possible first rounders, for the ninth pick in this draft in order to get Justise Winslow. But the Hornets chose Frank Kaminsky over that haul. In hindsight Ainge might actually be happy about that,
Other rumors say that Ainge offered two of his most promising players, Marcus Smart and Jared Sullinger, in other deals.
But in the end the Celtics ended up using all their draft picks without being able to trade up, down, in or out.
It was a surprise when they picked point guard Terry Rozier at 16th, since few mocks even had him going in the second round. But he might actually have been promised to be picked up by a team like Houston, who needs a play maker like him.
And after closer inspection, Rozier seems to be a great fit for the Celtics who have few players who can create their own shot and drive to the basket, like he can. Furthermore he is not afraid of the big moments, and he plays defense with tenacity, both qualities are highly regarded by Ainge and coach Brad Stevens.
R.J. Hunter brings more three-point shooting
It was another surprise that shooting guard R.J. Hunter, who was seen as one of the best shooters in the draft, slid all the way down to 28th where the Celtics picked him up.
Hunter has been compared to Klay Thompson for a best case scenario, but then he really has to pick up the slack on defense. But since the Celtics are in desperate need of three-point shooting, Hunter might see minutes just based on that skill, just like James Young did last season, even though his defense was below acceptable. The Celtics were one of the worst teams in the league from behind the arc last season.
The Celtics' two second-round picks are quite intriguing especially power forward Jordan Mickey who might hang around for a while. He brings some very needed rim protection to the team and is by far the most athletic of the Celtics big men. He is a bit undersized but makes up for it with a huge wingspan. He was one of the nation's leading shot blockers last season and made both the SEC All-Conference First Team and All-Defensive Team. His versatility on defense makes him a great fit for the team. He is limited on offense, but if he turns into a defensive stopper on this level, that alone will earn him a lot of playing time.
Too many players for the roster
The Celtics used their last pick on Marcus Thornton, a point guard out of William and Mary. He was not included in mock drafts but he is lightning fast and a high jumper (43'' max vertical at the combine). He will get his chance in Summer League but is a candidate to be stashed somewhere until there is an opening on the Celtics roster.
As noted in our draft breakdown, the Celtics are simply overcrowded in the backcourt and at the power forward position.
After extending a qualifying offer to Jae Crowder, the Celtics already have in principle 12 players under contract. Though they might not match an offer sheet for Crowder, and Phil Pressey and Chris Babb's contracts are unguaranteed. If you include the draftees, that makes it 16 players. And then we haven't considered fan favorites Jonas Jerebko, Brandon Bass and Gigi Datome, who become free agents (apparently the Celtics chose not to extend a qualifying offer to Datome).
To add to this cluster, the Celtics are in the market for at least two major additions to the roster: A starting caliber big man and a wing who can create his own baskets with three-point range.
Let's not even mention the rumor that the Celtics want to sign Kevin Love, Robin Lopez, and Paul Pierce!
This is what the Celtics look like at the start of free agencyPlayers under guaranteed contracts: Marcus Smart, Jared Sullinger, Gerald Wallace, Isaiah Thomas, Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley, James Young, Evan Turner, Tyler Zeller ($40,406,846) 1. round draftees (guaranteed contracts): Terry Rozier, R.J. Hunter ($2,973,000) 2. round draftees (nonguaranteed): Jordan Mickey, Marcus Thornton ($1,050,186) Tended Qualifying Offer: Jae Crowder ($1,181,348) Unguaranteed contracts: Phil Pressey, Chris Babb ($1,894,552) Free agents with Bird rights: Brandon Bass, Jonas Jerebko, Gigi Datome (Early Bird). Cap holds: ($21,175,000) Draft rights owned: Colton Iverson (drafted in 2013, has played overseas for two seasons) Trade exceptions: 10 different exceptions, the biggest are Rajon Rondo ($12,909,090) and Tayshaun Prince ($7,707,865). Other exceptions: Mid-Level Exception, Bi-Annual Exception |
The projected salary cap for the 2015-2016 season is $67.1 million dollars (tax at $81.6 million dollars).
Free agents with Bird rights, trade exceptions and other exceptions all count against the salary cap as cap holds, so the Celtics are well above the cap from the get-go.
The exceptions are only usable when you are above the cap. Otherwise you have to use your cap space. In order to get under the salary cap you need to renounce free agents and/or exceptions.
This is why Danny Ainge, under the current CBA, has created one trade exception after another, so that he could keep his team above the cap and add flexibility that he would lose by going under the cap.
So this summer he has to make a huge choice, much dependent on which players he will be able to sign in free agency or trade for: Should he go under the cap in order to sign a max player, or should he keep floating, trying to sign someone for a little less than max by using the Rondo exception and maybe another one with a sign-and-trade. Or should he renounce everyone and everything in order to go for the big fish that commands a max contract well above $15 million.
Two very different scenarios
If Ainge chooses to stay above the cap, he could try and go in this direction:
- Trade Gerald Wallace and a first-round pick (lottery protected) to the Cavaliers for Brendan Haywood's unguaranteed contract of the same size.
- Sign-and-trade Brandon Bass and Haywood to the Detroit Pistons for Greg Monroe on a three-year deal with the last season as a player option starting at $15 million. This way Boston and Monroe maintain his Bird rights.
- Use the Rondo trade exception to sign either Tobias Harris or Khris Middleton in a sign-and-trade to any deal starting at $12.9 million for the first season.
- Use the Prince trade exception to sign-and-trade for Paul Pierce for $15 million for two seasons, with the last one a player option.
Under pin twp and three you could substitute Morris with Harris or Middleton (and perhaps another player instead of Bass) and maybe go for Robin Lopez with the Rondo exception.
All of the above are obviously dependent on whether said players want to go to Boston for that kind of money, and whether Stan Van Gundy and Brandon Bass want to get reunited.
Then Ainge would have to get rid of at least one player on the roster, maybe more if he wants to sign Mickey, Thornton, Jerebko or Datome.
In the second scenario, Ainge strikes a deal with LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Love or Marc Gasol starting at $18-plus million, and needs to create cap space (if he can't find a miracle sign-and-trade). That means renouncing all exceptions and at least Bass and Jerebko. He would probably also need to get rid of Gerald Wallace's contract somehow, either as drawn out above or by using the stretch provision, which means that Wallace gets waived, and his $10 million for this season gets stretched as a cap hold over three seasons.
Expect Boston to be patient if they don't get their man
As you can tell, it can get rather complicated. And in the scenarios mentioned above, the Celtics haven't even made decisions regarding who stays and who goes from the current roster.
Is there a market for the Celtics players? Probably yes, but since none of them are stars in their own right just yet, Ainge might have to wait until after some of the bigger pieces in this year's jigsaw puzzle of a free-agent market have found their place before he can start moving. And it will be difficult for Boston to get players with star power.
If the right pieces become available, this could be a huge summer for Boston. But otherwise, Danny Ainge has proven before that he can be very patient, so don't expect him to run after players that the Celtics don't really need, just to try and create fireworks.
Summer League could bring some excitement
But if you are impatient, Summer League is just around the corner, and the Celtics have committed to participate in both Salt Lake City and Las Vegas.
Besides this year's draft picks, you can expect Marcus Smart, James Young, and Chris Babb to return to Summer League, along with undrafted but highly touted Jonathan Holmes, who was expected to go late in the first or early n the second round.
Colton Iverson will be back for his third Summer League with the Celtics.
All in all, the Celtics plan to bring 13 players to each tournament.