Rumors started last week that Florida was considering Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney to replace the fired Will Muschamp. Based on Jeremy Foley’s criteria for the next head coach, under 50 years old with head coaching experience and good at recruiting, Swinney would seem like an interesting candidate for Florida. The 45-year-old quickly denied all interest in the job, but he was likely the source of these stories. And he has one big reason why: survival.
While Swinney has recruited well at Clemson and shredded through his cupcake ACC schedule each season, he’s committed three cardinal sins as the head coach of Clemson. The first is that he hasn’t contended for national relevance. They’ve been a quasi-ACC power during his time in Pickens county, but they look stuck as a team that will only make a big bowl, if any ACC school goes to a playoff game.
The second thing is that whilst he’s recruited well, he is losing the in-state recruiting to his rivals at South Carolina. And speaking of them…
He’s lost five straight to the Columbia-based school. If he loses his sixth in a row to Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks, the grumbling for his head will begin in earnest. He cannot guarantee a win this year against his nemesis, especially with injuries making his QB position a major question mark headed into rivalry week. So, one cheap way to stop some of the grumbling ahead of it is to make yourself look in-demand. Leaking that Florida would be interested in you immediately puts the Clemson AD and boosters in a dilemma. They can’t really fire him if Florida is sniffing around him, since he may take his good coordinators with him, so they will have to and wait to see if offensive coordinator Chad Morris or his defensive counterpart Brent Venables take a job elsewhere before deciding Swinney’s fate.
Would Dabo even be a serious candidate for the Florida job? It’s doubtful. While he is an established head coach who recruits well in the south and is under 50, he’s also 9-16 against ranked teams he’s faced. And in the SEC, you’re going to face ranked teams week in and week out. If Florida has any legitimate interest in him, it’s probably as a Plan D or E for if all their other top choices turn you down or ask for too much money. And if Morris doesn't move with with Dabo, there’s really no point in hiring him. If Foley was looking for an offensive mind, regardless of having head coaching experience or not, Morris would make a lot of sense. Swinney would just be a means to an end of getting Morris’ offense on your team, except that Dabo would need at least a small raise to take the job and his current salary would make him the highest paid coach in the SEC east.
Aside from Swinney, who else could take the job?
Mark Stoops, Kentucky head coach
Why this makes sense: He’s done well squeezing a lot of toothpaste out of the tube he has at U-K, but no matter how well he does, he’ll always be second fiddle to men’s basketball in Lexington. He’s under 50, SEC east proven, and recruits well.
Why this wouldn’t happen: It’s hard to think why this couldn’t happen. Stoops seems like a natural candidate for Florida, and vice versa. The only reason that could prevent it has been Kentucky’s fade down the stretch.
Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss head coach
Why this makes sense: Freeze is the hermit crab of college football. He’s had four different jobs in the last seven seasons and is constantly looking to move up in the world. Ole Miss is doing well under his leadership but Florida would be a big step up for him. Great recruiter, under 50, and knows the SEC very well.
Why this wouldn’t happen: Freeze has a ton of younger talent to work with in Oxford. Why would he leave a potential contender in the SEC west for a shipwreck that you are expected to be a contender with inside a year?
Dana Holgorsen, WVU head coach
Why this makes sense: He’s an established head coach, under 50 years old, an offensive mind, and recruits Florida extremely well. He also does well with transfers and maximizing offensive talent. West Virginia’s fans and AD would pack his bags for him to get him off the team, due to the fact he’s only stayed because of an 11 million dollar buyout clause.
Why this wouldn’t happen: If WVU wants him gone, would he really be a good option for a bigger program with bigger ambitions? Holgs checks a lot of the boxes for Florida, but does this excite recruits or a fan base? Probably not.
Rich Rodriguez, Arizona head coach
Why this makes sense: He’s spread offense guru, recruits well, has head coaching experience, and quickly turned an underperforming Arizona team around.
Why this wouldn’t happen: He’s over 50 (51) and was total disaster at Michigan with bad choices for his defensive staff. He might be a coach who can’t deal with high expectations and needs to be at second level programs his entire career.
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State head coach
Why this makes sense: He’s offensive minded, recruits very well, handled a big time program in Oklahoma State, and he’s under 50.
Why this wouldn’t happen: Gundy might be looking to move on from the Cowboys, and reports have him as “interested” in the Florida job. However, as Oklahoma State alum and long time assistant, it seems like he would need more to leave Stillwater than the wreck of the Florida roster.
Lane Kiffin, Alabama offensive coordinator
Why this makes sense: He’s a former SEC head coach, under 50, probably won’t hire his dad away from the Cowboys, recruits well and is a big enough name for Florida fans to talk themselves into this being a good hire. Also, they can say that they “hurt Nick Saban” with this hire.
Why this wouldn’t happen: It’s Lane Kiffin. You can trust him about as far as you can throw him. He’s as likely to leave after one season for the NFL as he is to stay four seasons in Gainesville.
Bobby Petrino, Louisville head coach
Why this makes sense: He knows the SEC, recruits very well, is an offensive mind and would be a big name hire. He’s desperate enough to get out of the ACC and back into the SEC that you could get him at a cut rate.
Why this wouldn’t happen: He likes changing jobs every couple of years, is over 50, and is carrying some baggage. There’s no guarantee that he would stay in the job if a better one presented itself to him.
Gary Patterson, TCU head coach.
Why this makes sense: He’s done a great job cobbling together contenders from disparate parts at TCU, finds hidden gems in recruiting, and is smart enough to adapt his system to his talent.
Why this wouldn’t happen: He’s over 50, doesn’t recruit the southeast that well, and is unlikely to leave a great situation for a high pressure job?
Mike Shanahan
Why this makes sense: He’s a big name that would draw big media attention for the hire and when he goes recruiting. He’s also a great interviewee in the AD’s office who’ll probably pitch Foley that he’s next in the Steve Spurrier 'I got fired by the Redskins and I’ll do well in the SEC' career path. There are also reports that Shanahan is actively pushing for the job if Foley’s A-list turn him down.
Why this wouldn’t happen: It’s Mike Shanahan. If you’re a 17 year old recruit, you were in diapers when he won his last super bowl. His offense is probably far too complicated for a college offensive line and only he knows who he would hire as his assistants.
Mark Hudspeth, Louisiana-Lafayette head coach
Why this makes sense: He’s been an assistant under Dan Mullen at Miss State, but he’s not from the Urban Meyer tree, reportedly a disqualification for any candidates. He’s done well at ULL and recruits well.
Why this wouldn’t happen: It would be a very underwhelming hire for Foley. He’s not some hot coaching name that teams are lining up for big jobs, and he seems like a C-list hire even if Foley tries to compare him to getting Urban Meyer from Utah.
Brian Kelly, Notre Dame head coach.
Why this makes sense: Kelly seems to have topped out at Notre Dame and while he might win a few more games thanks to getting ACC creampuffs each year, it doesn’t seem like Notre Dame will be a national contender any time soon. Kelly is a good recruiter and his schemes would seem to do well in the SEC east.
Why this wouldn’t happen: Notre Dame might not be a national contender under Kelly, but it would take a lot to talk him out of the big salary, big exposure job he has there.