Part I: Introduction

College conference realignment is a subject that many people do not like to talk about, but it is a fascinating process and it is a necessary evil, for lack of a better term, for the world of college athletics today. Realignment not only affects football teams, but basketball and non-revenue sports as well, as well as universities as a whole, who stand to make or lose a great deal of money depending on which conference they a part of. There has been a ton of moving and shaking in the last five years when it comes to programs changing conferences, and it’s not done yet.

This article is based on a hypothetical, but highly possible, scenario: the dissolution of the Big 12 Conference. If this major conference falls, which many predict it will if it doesn’t change its policies and admits new members, it will cause a massive reorganizing of the Division I FBS conferences. This scenario is not perfect and not every variable is addressed. However, it is a projection of the potential landing places for displaced programs and the conference (and nationwide) ramifications. This hypothetical situation will illustrate the widespread effects of conference realignment on college football and college athletics in general.

Part II: Background

The Big 12 has been one of the most powerful conferences in Division I since its formation in 1996, when four Texas schools from the former Southwest Conference merged with the Big 8. This 12 team league would stay intact until 2011, when Nebraska and Colorado left the conference. One year later, Missouri and Texas A&M would also depart, leaving the conference with just eight teams. The conference would go on to add West Virginia and TCU to bring the total number of programs up to 10.

There were many reasons why the four programs left the conference, but Texas was the individual program which served as the most prominent catalyst. The television agreement between the University of Texas and ESPN was a major signal of issues to come for the conference. Texas’ Longhorn Network became a major recruiting tool and symbol of power for the Longhorns program. It was intended to show games from all of the school’s sports, while also showing high school games, a very effective way to recruit. The approximately $300 million deal between the school and the media conglomerate was viewed as an unfair advantage for Texas, both in terms of revenue earning and recruiting. A point that cannot be emphasized enough is that the Longhorn Network deal made it impossible for a true conference-wide network, similar to the Big Ten Network (or the recently-created SEC Network, another ESPN channel).

Along with the Longhorn Network, many programs within the Big 12 were upset with the conference’s inequivalent revenue sharing structure. Texas was treated as the premier team in the conference, with Oklahoma and Texas A&M ending up in a sort of second tier, with the remaining programs sharing what was left. Animosity over the revenue sharing structure, coupled with the intense conflict over Texas’ TV network, evolved into a burden which the four programs no longer wished to bear.

At one point, there were discussions about several teams moving to the Pac-10, in order to make it a 14 team conference. The overall talks broke down, but Colorado jumped the gun and made the move in 2011. The Big Ten, a conference with its eyes on several programs, including at one point Missouri, made an offer to Nebraska, who subsequently joined (not without intense scrutiny over academic qualifications, however). Texas A&M, after a receiving an offer to be “taken care of” be Texas, decided to leave the conference for the SEC, as opposed to the Pac-10. The deal was too sweet to pass up for A&M; they were guaranteed a better share of revenue and they became the only Texas school in the SEC, giving them a great recruiting edge. Mizzou, originally one of the driving forces behind keeping the Big 12 together, ended up moving on to the SEC as well. The money and influence was too much to ignore, even with long-standing rivalries being left behind.

The Big 12 needed to add teams, because it would have not survived with only eight. The Big East was experiencing severe issues simultaneously with the Big 12. With turmoil in the conference, several schools broke away, led by Syracuse and Pitt (who joined the ACC). Taking advantage of the situation, the Big 12 made an offer to West Virginia and TCU (who had originally accepted an offer to move from the Mountain West to the Big East), with both schools accepting. This brought the Big 12 to its current number of programs. (The former Big East Conference would fall apart in 2012; the new Big East features all Catholic universities from the eastern United States, while the non-Catholic former members would become part of the American Athletic Conference).

Recently, the Big 12 has experienced further issues. With only a 10 team league, the conference cannot host a championship game for football, something that the other four power conferences (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Pac-12) can do. This lack of a championship game became a hotly contested issue when both 11-1 TCU and 11-1 Baylor were left out of the inaugural College Football Playoff. While never confirmed, it was widely speculated that no conference championship game was too much for either program to overcome. Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby has been adamant that the conference is not looking to expand. This stance has led many people, from fans to the media and beyond, to believe that if a similar situation arises again, some programs may begin to look for opportunities elsewhere.

The Big 12 has been in an interesting place for a while now, and they are under the microscope thanks to these most recent developments. For now the conference is safe, but several factors could lead to its dissolution.

Part III: Realignment

To repeat, the hypothetical situation in play: the Big 12 dissolves. The reason(s) for this dissolution don’t necessarily need to be determined for this realignment scenario to play out. It’s difficult to find a perfect fit for each team, and some teams end up somewhat shoehorned into their new given conference in this setup. That being said, this is a possible, and reasonably logistically safe, outcome given the hypothetical situation. This will be broken down by conference, with each team added by said conference being listed.

Pac-12 (now Pac-16)

Teams added: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

This scenario makes the most sense for these four teams when all limitations are taken into consideration. Texas has the most freedom, while also being a worrisome prospect at the same time. They bring in prestige, talent and recruiting grounds, all of which have undeniably important impacts. However, something will need to be done about the Longhorn Network. The contract will either need to be reworked or the product may need to be reformatted (if not outright cancelled), due to the already-existing Pac-12 Network. The other, much less likely option is that Texas goes the independent route, but that does not benefit the program much in the playoff era. Texas Tech would likely not want to be known as a team in Texas’ shadow (one major reason that Texas A&M took their business elsewhere), but this would be an opportunity they cannot pass up. They are too far south to be considered a Big Ten team (not to mention they would not meet the academic requirements). They are not a prestigious enough football program (or basketball, for that matter) to be brought in to the SEC. A conference such as the AAC or the Mountain West may be interested, but that would be a step down for the Red Raiders (at least moving to the AAC would be; the Mountain West is an interesting player in this ordeal, which will be addressed later on). Following their rivals to the Pac-12/Pac-16 is in the best interest of Texas Tech.

Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will be a package deal, regardless of which conference they would move to. While there are no official legal requirements stating that they must stay together (as outlined in this Crimson and Cream Machine article from 2011), the Governor of Oklahoma may state that they must stick together. Operating under the assumption that Governor Mary Fallin would require the two programs stick together, and with long-standing rivalries in mind, the scenario dictates that they two schools are a package deal. The SEC would certainly be interested in OU, considering that it would be a new (although small) market, as well as new recruiting territory. With their tradition, Oklahoma would be a great candidate for the SEC. However, considering that OSU must join the same conference as OU, the Pac-12 may be a better overall option. The two programs and the conference have already had talks in prior years, and Oklahoma State is a better fit in the Pac-12 than SEC. The Pac-12 is already a great football conference, only made better by Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and the two of them make it a much better basketball conference as well. It’s the best option for both Oklahoma schools.

Overall, this a win for all four programs, as well as the conference. It is already arguably the second best football conference in Division I, and it could make a claim to be the best with addition of these four teams. For basketball, it becomes a much better and much prestigious conference as a whole. All four teams bring in a ton of revenue, which would be a decent enough reason for the additions to be approved by the existing conference members. The Longhorn Network is the only thing that could slow down Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State from joining the new Pac-16.

Big Ten

Teams added: Kansas, Iowa State

With the Pac-12 moving up to 16 teams, it’s highly unlikely that the Big Ten would stand pat with 14 teams. Kansas is an easy choice to be added to the conference, as it works out very well for each party. The Big Ten is already the best college basketball conference in the country, and by adding one of the most dominant teams in the country it only becomes stronger. While football is the most important sport for revenue and TV exposure, Kansas is one of the few programs which brings in more importance with basketball than football. In terms of football, however, it increases competition amongst the teams in the basement of the league (however, the inverse can also be argued, that it just adds another poor football team to a conference that has had several over the past few seasons). Other reasons why Kansas is a great fit for the Big Ten include the fact that it is a midwestern university (despite it being the furthest south of any conference school), and it is a member of the Association of American Universities, a prestigious academic organization and a requirement for being a member of the Big Ten. The Big Ten and KU are a great fit for each other.

Iowa State was much more difficult to place in this hypothetical scenario. Frankly, Iowa State needs the Big Ten much more than the Big Ten needs Iowa State, however the Cyclones become the best remaining option for the conference. Iowa State has a poor football team and a good basketball team, which is fine but not quite as influential as Kansas’ sustained basketball greatness. Iowa State is a member of the AAU, which is crucial, however there is already a Big Ten presence in the state of Iowa (the University of Iowa). Kansas adds new recruiting territory and television markets; Iowa State does not. Iowa would likely fight the addition of its intrastate rival, but it may not make a difference in the end. Iowa State is going to be in need of a conference and considering their geographical location, they have very few options. They may have to accept some sort of convoluted phase-in program, which could include decreased revenue over their first few years in the league (and Iowa may have to receive some extra compensation), but they would take it to join the conference.

When it comes right down to it, the Big Ten will need to have 16 teams and despite already maintaining a presence in a minimally populated state (Iowa ranks 30th in the United States in total population), Iowa State will be their best option, although that doesn’t say too much about their choices. Iowa State currently brings in less revenue annually than any Big Ten team (according to this article by USA Today), although that is going to change with influence from the Big Ten Network. An added benefit of bringing KU and ISU both in is the rivalry factor, as these two teams have been in the same conference since 1908, and have been approximately equal in terms of competitiveness with each other over the last few years. Kansas is a great fit for the Big Ten, Iowa State not so much, but if the Big Ten looks to expand with this hypothetical dissolution of the Big 12, they will need to bring both into the fold.

ACC

Team added: West Virginia

This was the simplest team to choose a conference for. West Virginia is already an outlier in terms of geography for the Big 12, while they fit in perfectly with the rest of the teams in the ACC. There are numerous reasons why West Virginia fits in with the rest of the conference. For one, they are already bringing in more revenue annually than several members of the ACC, making them a decent choice financially. Rivalries would be reignited, such as the Backyard Brawl between the Mountaineers and Pitt. A final sticking point is that West Virginia brings the conference to 16 teams, which would equal the number of teams in the new Big Ten and Pac-16 in our scenario. This was an easy choice, as it works out well for all parties involved.

Mountain West

Teams added: Kansas State, Baylor, TCU

Of all the conferences and teams involved in this scenario, these teams were the hardest to place. We’ll start with Kansas State, truly a team with no country in this hypothetical breaking down of the Big 12. K-State is not legally attached to Kansas when it comes to conference affiliation, and while keeping the intrastate rivals together would be nice, it simply does not work out in this hypothetical scenario (one main reason being that K-State is not an AAU member). The Wildcats have a good football program, which is attractive, but geographically they are right in the middle of the country and thus they do not fit in very well with many conferences. The AAC is a potential suitor, but when taking into consideration geography and level of play/competition for football, the Mountain West is a much better fit.

As previously mentioned, this is not a perfect scenario, and as has already been exhibited, it is being operated with certain assumptions in mind. In this case, the assumption is that Baylor and TCU will not be separated. Heated rivals, the Bears and the Horned Frogs are located close enough together that splitting them up would not make sense in these conditions. Both schools are prolific in football, which would be a good sell for any conference. It would be challenging for the two schools to join the SEC, as they are not truly in the southeast, which does happen to be the case for several teams, but they are close enough to College Station that Texas A&M would actively work to block them from joining the conference in order to protect their Texas stronghold. It may be challenging to for TCU to rejoin the Mountain West, considering they left the conference for greener pastures just a few short years ago, but it’s undeniable that the Horned Frogs would bring a huge boost to the conference. Assuming they have no shot at the SEC (which is likely), the Mountain West is the best option for Baylor and TCU.

It was hard to decide between the AAC and the MWC for all three of these programs. The AAC is not a very stable conference as it is, but adding three strong football members (and a couple of decent basketball teams) would certain solidify the conference and they could argue to become a power conference. However, as things stand prior to this hypothetical scenario, the Mountain West is a better football conference than the American. It makes more sense geographically as well, and it brings in a major media market and recruiting territory (Dallas/Fort Worth) to boot. With the addition of Baylor, Kansas State and TCU, the Mountain West becomes a Power 5 conference. Under some sort of reconfiguring of the playoff system, this would become almost a necessity for the conference to stay relevant.* A conference that features these three former Big 12 teams, plus Boise State and a surging Colorado State, becomes a powerful league football-wise. The argument can even be made that if a situation arose again like the 2014 football season debacle with Baylor and TCU, they may be in an even better place than they were the first time if they are in the MWC. These three teams would bring the MWC to 14 teams, the same numbers as the SEC. It would be foolish for the conference to not extend offers to Baylor, K-State and TCU if (or in this scenario, when) they are looking for a new conference.

*Note: this is an entire other hypothetical scenario which will not be explored in this article. However, if playoff reform were to happen, this could be another crucial sticking point should the Big 12 fall apart.

SEC, AAC, MAC, Conference USA, Sun Belt

In this scenario, the Big 12 breaks down, four FBS conferences add teams and five do not, with different levels of importance for each. The SEC, for example, does not need to add any other teams. It is already the strongest football conference in the country, and there is certainly something to be said for prestige. Adding more teams dilutes the pool a bit and eliminates some of the conference’s prestigious aura (even though the SEC seems somewhat infallible at times). They already have 14 teams, an incredibly high level of competitiveness, a great TV deal; why change anything? They have nothing to worry about as other teams scramble to find new conferences.

The American Athletic Conference may suffer the most from not picking up any of the former Big 12 teams. An already somewhat unstable conference, a lack of top-tier football programs (or at least programs you could consistently refer to as “good”) could spell its doom. The addition of Navy in 2015 is not enough to make this G5 conference into anything more powerful, save for their ability to have a conference title game. In terms of prestige, the AAC is pretty poor, especially considering how bad some of their bottom feeder teams are against relatively weak competition. Getting shut out after a Big 12 collapse could devastate the AAC.

There is frankly not much negative impact on the other three shut out conferences in this scenario. The MAC is a decent conference, competitive enough with other conferences that they must be respected. They have a good niche already carved out for themselves, what with their Wednesday night football broadcasts. The only team they could possibly go after is Iowa State, but that is too prestigious of a school at this point to drop down to the MAC. Nonetheless, this is one conference that will be just fine. Conference USA and the Sun Belt will also not suffer from this wave of realignment. These are considered the weakest conferences in Division I FBS, featuring most of the smaller and newer schools to the division. These two conferences can’t compete with the P5 is the current day and would never have much of a shot at landing a former Big 12 team. There is little to no direct impact on these conferences with the Big 12 dissolution, either negative or positive.

Part IV: Conclusion

What is learned from exploring this hypothetical situation? The Big 12, for now, is not in imminent danger of collapsing. Things are (for the moment) all quiet on the realignment front. So what do we gain from this? This was a lesson in chaos. In other words, it’s a view into just how chaotic the world of college sports can still become, even after all of the turmoil of the past five years. Stubborn individuals and organizations can lead to utter disarray, and in just a few short years, a conference could fall from the ranks of the Power 5 into extinction. Such is life in modern college sports. Football is a huge money maker for American universities, and continued realignment could dramatically affect these institutions. It’s ignorant to believe that something like the dissolution of the Big 12 couldn’t happen, because realignment chaos is likely unavoidable in the modern college sports climate.

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About the author
Brendan Dzwierzynski
Originally from just outside of Chicago, IL, USA, Brendan is a at the University of Kansas in Lawrence, KS, USA. Brendan has a great deal of experience in broadcasting and journalism. He has won several awards for radio work, including the Best Sports Play-by-Play at the Columbia College Chicago High School Radio Awards, won during his senior year of high school. He currently serves as the FM Sports Director at KJHK-FM. In terms of writing, he currently writes for several publications, including VAVEL, RockChalkTalk.com (an SB Nation website), thewrestlinggame.com, as well as two personal blogs, titled Per audacia ad astra and Press Box Opinions (sports-only). Brendan is a fan of the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Cubs and White Sox, Chicago Bulls, Chicago Blackhawks and all teams at the University of Kansas.