Welcome back to VAVEL USA for this week's installment of the MLS Roundtable. It is All-Star Week from Providence Park in Portland, Oregon which provides the theme for a few of our questions. We will also discuss the playoff races in each conference with a more specific look at the top of the Eastern Conference as opposed to the entire Western Conference. We ask our writers what they would do if they were MLS Commissioner for a day before finally asking their thoughts on how the All-Star Game will end.
The Western Conference is loaded with strong teams from top-to-bottom. When the regular season ends on October 26th, which five clubs will be in the playoffs, in what order and why?
Stockton Mair: I think the Sounders, Galaxy, RSL, Rapids, and Dallas will be in the Playoffs. I think the order will be Seattle, RSL, Galaxy, Dallas, and Rapids, just like it is now. The reason I think that is Seattle has a lead over the rest of the conference. Now, Real Salt Lake is only two points behind Seattle, so I could be wrong. RSL has recently found their scoring mark again, and have found a way to get shutouts. The Galaxy and FC Dallas are tied for points, so this could go either way. The Rapids are three points behind FC Dallas and the Galaxy, but are only one point ahead of the Whitecaps, so they could possibly be removed from the playoffs.
Liam McMahon: I think that when the season ends, the Western Conference table will look like this: 1.) Seattle Sounders. They've been playing better than anyone else this season, and even though they were recently dismantled 3-0 by the LA Galaxy, I still think that Seattle will finish first. 2.) LA Galaxy. The Galaxy have been making great use of their games in hand, and behind some terrific play as of late from Gyasi Zardes and Robbie Keane they look to me the second best team overall in the conference. 3.) Real Salt Lake. They've been consistent throughout the season, and continue to pick up the points where they need it. They seem in a very good place to continue on and finish safely in a playoff spot. 4.) FC Dallas. Although they've been scoring a lot so far this season, they've struggled defensively. I think that they should be able to shore themselves up defensively enough to hold onto the fourth spot. 5.) Portland Timbers. The race for the fifth in the West is one of the most exciting in MLS this year, between Portland, Vancouver, and Colorado it's hard to tell who will finish fifth. But, with the addition of Liam Ridgewell at the back, and Fanendo Adi at the front, I think this enough for Portland to finish fifth.
Eevry Goren: 1. Seattle Sounders, they look like the real deal with their offense as explosive as it is right now I’m just not sure anyone else can take it. However things to look out for that may affect their league form or standing are the potential sale of Yedlin, the US Open Cup and Obafemi Martins' fitness.
2. LA Galaxy, the defense seems to be finding some consistency with Robbie Rogers move to LB looking like a pretty intelligent one for Arena, Zardes is finally in the form that everyone expected when he first burst onto the scene and Robbie Keane is Robbie Keane. Even if Donovan don't perform to his best I think they still have the overall quality they need.
3. Colorado Rapids, Mastroeni seems like he's doing a solid job for a first year coach, Deshorn Brown is starting to get the hang of things, the two Dylan’s are finally settling into their positions, Clint Irwin looks like potential USMNT quality at times, and they have no other competitions to worry about.
4. Real Salt Lake, while Joao Plata has been great as of late, picking up the slack for Saborio and Rimando is arguably the best keeper in MLS I can't put them any higher. While they are the consummate professionals, I expected better from their defense this season but RSL are in CONCACAF Champions League and have a pretty tough schedule from here till the end of the season. They'll make the playoffs but it won't be pretty.
5. I want to say Portland but I'm going with FC Dallas, Porter's strategy of picking DP's in various positions is an excellent one, I think it'll pay off in the future and I'm surprised no one has really gotten DP defenders for the most part before but between Johnson's poor form, their reliance on Fanendo Adi at times and their first time involvement with CCC I think they'll just barely miss out. Normally I'd pick FC Dallas to flare out spectacularly toward the end of the season as they have for several seasons in the past but I think Castillo and Akindele are hitting form just at the right time and getting goals from midfield is always a huge help. They'll make it but just barely.
Blayne Riffle: Seattle – Even if they spiral out of control, they have done enough and are a strong enough team to retain the top spot. 2) LA – The recent run of form is how this team should be playing. Arena finally has this group together. They will be the only team with a shot to take the top spot from Seattle. 3) Colorado – This squad has been solid all season and has the potential to beat anyone in the league. With the West not having any breakout teams in the middle, the steady play in Colorado will prevail. 4) Vancouver – This team is being led by Morales who has to be an MVP candidate at this point. For the same reasons, Colorado will surge, Vancouver will be right there with them. 5) Chivas – I’m not wavering in my preseason pick that Chivas will make the playoffs. They have the playmakers to get them through and the final spot is not out of reach. The more this team plays together, the better they look. If one other player besides Cubo Torres starts scoring, Chivas will surge.
Oliver Lines: Seattle Sounders - Far too much class and far too much of a cushion to not qualify. Nine points above sixth and they’ve played fewer games (20) than the majority of the league as a whole. Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins have so much class between them that Sounders are an absolute lock-in for the playoffs, despite their sketchy form right now.
Real Salt Lake – Once again, they just have too many resources to miss the playoffs. Kyle Beckerman’s wonderful World Cup will only spur him and the team on, with players like Joao Plata and Javier Morales adding plenty on the offensive end whilst Nick Rimando shores up the defense.
LA Galaxy – Not to make the same point three times, but it comes down to the quality of certain players again. Robbie Keane and Landon Donovan just ooze class when they hit top form, and although they have rarely hit that form this season, when they do the repercussions can be devastating. Having played just 19 games means they also have the chance to sneak in at the top, but that seems unlikely.
Portland Timbers – To say Portland had a slow start is a bit of an understatement. It took the Timbers almost two months to win their first league game and they’ve only won five since. That being said, they still find themselves just three points off the playoffs. If the likes of Diego Valeri and Darlington Nagbe can recreate the form they showed for so much of last season, a late burst into the playoffs is well within their grasp.
Colorado Rapids – Despite a shockingly bad attack, the Rapids should just about sneak into the playoffs thanks to their fantastic defense. Drew Moor and Shane O’Neill have been first rate in recent matches at both ends, with Vicente Sanchez adding a few extra goals to help the Rapids on their way.
Matthew Evans: This is a very difficult question to answer given how good each of these clubs have performed this season. In the end though the final order of finish in the Western Conference will look like this: Seattle Sounders FC, Los Angeles Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Portland Timbers, and Colorado Rapids. Seattle will win the Western Conference as long as they can stay healthy on the back-line. We have seen recently how much they have struggled while center-back Chad Marshall has been out with a back injury.
Real Salt Lake and the Los Angeles Galaxy will finish in the next two spots because they are the next best teams after Seattle in the conference. I gave the nod for the Galaxy in second place due to the matches in hand they have over RSL. The last two spots are very much up for grabs and I think they will not be decided until the last match of the season.
Does DC United have what it takes to finish ahead of Sporting Kansas City in the Eastern Conference? Why?
Mair: It depends on their next couple of results, and SKC's results. DC's next game is in a very tough place to get a result: Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, Utah against a very tough team in Real Salt Lake. If they can get a result against RSL, they are possibly set to beat SKC in the Eastern Conference.
McMahon: I think that D.C. United do have enough to finish in first, but I don't think they will. They've been great this year getting the most out of the young players and cast offs they've molded into a very good team. However, at the end of the day, I think that Kansas City is both a more experienced team and a more talented team. While United potentially have enough to finish first, I don't think they will.
Goren: No. While Eddie Johnson might be picking up form and we've seen Sporting KC struggle at times because of the mass of defensive injuries they've had I just think that overall despite both teams involvement in the CONCACAF Champions League KC's depth, intelligent recent acquisitions and experience will put them ahead of DC this time around. One thing to monitor however is Dom Dwyer's form, he's been a bit cold as of late and if it continues, KC will hope they have the right players to pick up the slack. That being said CCC could come back to bite them both and I could see Toronto wind up finishing ahead of both of them.
Riffle: Yes they have what it takes, but it will require some help. Sporting has most of their players back and is currently riding the league’s longest unbeaten streak and their play shows no signs of fading. But if SKC do falter, DC can continue to pick up results and knock off champs. DC’s remaining schedule includes trips to LA and SLC and two home matchups with KC. KC only has Western conference matchups with Chivas and Vancouver along with the string of Eastern conference games. Seeing the schedules and current form, I expect KC to come out ahead at the end.
Lines: No. Sporting have too much quality and experience to give up their lead for good. Dom Dwyer has been in superb form this season, scoring 14 goals so far, with Graham Zusi and Benny Feilhaber ruling the midfield to give Kansas City a deserved lead at the top of the East. This isn’t to say that DC doesn’t have the capacity to overtake them at the head of the table, but they seem too inconsistent to hold any lead they may get. Also, Sporting’s run-in is arguably easier than DC’s, giving them a larger advantage.
Evans: DC United does have what it takes yes, but they will not catch Sporting Kansas City. The reason why Sporting is not further ahead in the Eastern Conference is due to the consistent change on their defense. Sporting has been very unlucky with injuries, suspensions and international call-ups that at times have left them with only one true center-back. Despite all of these challenges, Sporting still is allowing less than a goal per match (20 goals allowed in 22 matches). They are the cream of the Eastern Conference crop and will be a tough challenge for the Western Conference in MLS Cup.
Do you think the current All-Star Game set-up is the best option? Why? If not, how would you change it?
Mair: I think it's interesting this way, but I want them to do an Eastern Conference vs. Western Conference. I would like them to do one year, then the other the next. Eastern Conference vs. Western Conference would show off the best players in each conference, and we could actually have a win, unlike in the current format where the All-Stars play against a nearly impossible-to-win European team.
McMahon: I don't think the current All Star Game is the best for MLS. I think it certainly helps MLS sell tickets, but when they bring in teams like Bayern, Roma, Chelsea, and Man Utd, that puts the focus on the team that we've brought in instead of the MLS players. That's what an All Star game is about; showcasing your very best players as they play with and against each other, something you rarely/never see. I would much rather see an East - West game that puts the focus on the MLS players instead of the European opposition.
Goren: I think it's great for publicity and an All-Star game in general is so American and a wonderful spectacle but I think the timing of things (right in the swing of the season) really messes some teams up. Keep the European teams but have it in January when most European teams have a break and MLS has just concluded. Lesser risk of injured players or screwing with team form.
Riffle: For MLS, it is still the better option. The league still struggles with viewership and playing a foreign club draws a crowd. There are the arguments about losing makes MLS look bad to the general population, but at least they are looking. It’s also a chance for those in Germany to tune in to look MLS, maybe for the first time. If the viewership was the same for an East - West game, that would be the preferred option as an MLS showcase. Instead of 23-30 players getting recognize, you will see 46 players called in and others recognized. But an East - West game will most likely cut all international views as no other country has a vested interest in looking.
Lines: The All-Star setup is absolutely fine. However if MLS wishes to expand their audience, it needs to turn into a whole event. Take lessons from the NBA and play the main game on a Sunday night, and have the two days prior to it dedicated to skills challenges like a crossbar challenge and a dribbling course. Not only does this make the game of soccer more interesting to potential supporters, it also makes the whole weekend more fun.
Evans: I am not the biggest fan of the All-Star Game set-up. What I would like to see is it played in a similar fashion to that of the Pro Bowl in the NFL. It would be East vs. West but would take place the day before the Final at the venue in which the Final is being held. Obviously players from the teams playing in the Final would not participate. I think it could be a great idea to experiment with sometime in the future.
Who is the biggest snub in the 23-man All-Star squad for Team MLS? Why?
Mair: I would have to say Joao Plata. He has been RSL's best forward this season, and can bring speed to the front line. He has been really efficient, and can draw the defense to him if you want to costless up one of the other forwards. Joao doesn't have the height most forwards have, but he does have extra skills.
McMahon: Before he was added at the 11th hour, I definitely would have said that it was Dom Dwyer. He's been fantastic for SKC this year. But, now that he's been added, I would say that it's Fabian Espindola of D.C. United. He's been the creative force behind the second place team in the Eastern Conference when they were expected to be nowhere near there. They've been THE surprise package in MLS this year, and he has been a driving force behind it
Goren: Chaco Maidana, I know he's currently out with a hamstring injury but the guy has been the heartbeat of the Philadelphia Union, has adjusted to MLS no problem and up until recently was leading the league in assists.
Riffle: With all the injuries and the late addition of Dwyer, there really are no remaining snubs. There are several arguments that player A deserves it more than player B, but those are really judgment calls. But for this question. Dwyer being left off until the last minute is the biggest snub this year. Lee Nguyen not being added is the judgment call I would disagree with most. Caleb Porter adding Wil Johnson and Diego Valeri over the NE standout shows a lot of favoritism towards his club while Lee has had a wonderful season and been steady throughout. NE is in a massive losing streak, but it’s not due to Nguyen’s play, he has been a bright spot through it.
Lines: This may be a bit off-piste, but Pedro Morales absolutely deserved a call-up. The midfielder has been at the heart of the Vancouver Whitecaps this season as they attempt to reach the playoffs, however due to a lack of real support from many of his teammates he has been unfairly overlooked. Not to say that other players in his position don’t warrant their spots, but Morales being in shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone.
Evans: The biggest All-Star snub in my opinion is Los Angeles Galaxy goalkeeper Jaime Penedo. Penedo is only one of two goalkeepers with a sub-one goals against average. He has only faced 66 shots in 17 matches which could be a draw-back but he is currently the best keeper in the league. The spot would have gone to Eric Kronberg of Sporting Kansas City had he not suffered an injury.
If you were commissioner for a day, what would you change and why?
Mair: I would add a review system. Too many times has there been bad calls in big games or small games. All major plays (goals penalties, red cards, etc.) would be reviewed once they were called. There would be 5 officials to the match, one in the replay booth, one 4th official, the two assistant refs, and the Ref in the middle. Despite how slow it could possibly be, many fan bases would be highly satisfied and wouldn't call their games "rigged".
McMahon: If I were commissioner for a day, I would make the Allocation Process clear. At this point in time, it makes no sense and Commissioner Garber seems to arbitrarily apply the rules. I would make a definitive Allocation Process that would always be applied.
Goren: Two big things stand out for me. For one I'm not crazy about the single entity format but with the teams being franchises and this being the US I guess I can understand. But things often seem shady with transfer, salary cap and expansion policy so I'd want more transparency. I would change the rule that I believe its MLS gets something like 2/3 of the money of a transfer fee when an MLS player is sold? I think that's absurd, with the money teams get back they can't truly responsibly and intelligently reinvest it, furthermore the fact that MLS assists some teams with transfers (cough cough Toronto FC) but not others (Philadelphia Union) is just plain wrong.
Riffle: The tight grasp MLS has on player contracts and signings. For a league pushing 20 years, that has to change. It’s time to take the training wheels off and adopt a true costless agency market. An adoption of a system similar to EUFA’s Financial Fair Play where teams are not allowed to run in a deficit each year would allow MLS to monitor the overspending like it does now. MLS can still own all the player contracts, but the control they have now often times feels like tampering. The re-entry draft, the allocation order, and the designated player rule all need to be abolished along with clubs still owning player’s rights if they transfer for costless. Not only will this help the players and the league, I think it will produce a better product on the field. An example Player A might be a great fit for Team 4, but they are too far down the Re-entry draft or Allocation order to get them. Team 2 might not be the best fit, but Player A is the best available so he gets taken. Now we look a player not used to his full potential because a team got a bargain. Another example would be the non-return of Herculez Gomez. He refuses to play for SKC who own his rights, therefore he won’t return until those rights are traded. I can’t see how this is a good thing for the league. And there is no need to start on MLS rigging the lottery for Dempsey and Bradley by making up rules as they went.
With the current state of the league, I’m sure there are teams currently running at a deficit and the league is helping them stay in business. I mean, all that money MLS brings in has to go somewhere and not every team is packing out the stands to break even. I’m not advocating the league drop that support since that would work against these clubs. But I’m sure MLS can come up with a better system. League assistance to keep these teams competitive can’t be that hard to work out when the league already helps them stay in business. The current system to aid the weakest teams has not helped a whole lot as it tends to encourages taking the best player and not the best fit and limits costless-agent courting and relationship building.
Lines: This is a tough one. I honestly believe MLS is growing a superb manner and overseas players are starting to gain more respect for the league. However if something had to be changed, outside of my answers in Question Three, it would probably be the scheduling of certain teams. Obviously it’s hard to make sure that everyone’s fixtures are fair because of the layout of the teams across the country, but often towards the end of the season there are teams who have three bye weeks in a row after a stacked opening period, and vice versa.
Evans: If I were Don Garber for one day, the change that I would make would be to abolish the allocation process. It is confusing for everybody, fans, media, players, etc. How do you expect to gain new fans if they don't understand how the league works?
BONUS QUESTION:
What is your All-Star game prediction? Final Score and MVP.
Mair: I think the All-Stars lose the game 3-0, the MVP for the All-stars would be Kyle Beckerman. Kyle did very well in the World Cup, and does well for Real Salt Lake often, so he should do well here.
McMahon: I like Bayern to win. As much as I would love to see the MLS All-Stars pull it out, I like to Bayern to win. I'll say... 2-1 Bayern. MVP: Julian Green as he gets a decent run out, scores a goal/has an assist and because Bayern wins the MVP award is given out somewhat sentimentally.
Goren: Bayern 4 MLS All-Stars 3. Both sides are stacked offensively and I don't expect it to be a game with too much defending going on. MVP- Robert Lewandowski.
Riffle: 1-1 Draw. Bayern will play some younger guys since it is preseason and the MLS defense will hold on. Besler will win the MVP anchoring the defense and leading the team to the unexpected result.
Lines: Bayern Munich 4-1 MLS All-Stars. It may only be an exhibition match, but Bayern are arguably the best team in the world right now and it’ll show. MVP: Thomas Muller.
Evans: I am not sure what mentality Bayern will have coming into the game. Will the first team play? If so, how many minutes? Given the unknowns it will finish Bayern 3, MLS All-Stars 2. MVP will be given to Mario Gotze.