Sunday will see the conclusion of the bet-at-home Open German Tennis Championships as Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini, both former champions here in Hamburg, will renew their rivalry in the final of the last ATP 500 level clay court tournament this year.
Nadal's road to the final
The Spaniard's decision to take a late wildcard into the draw after a subpar first half of the season has proved to be a good one so far and the former world number one will be hoping to capture the title in Hamburg for the second time after triumphing in 2008, when he last played here. The world number 10, seeded first, was in trouble early on in his first match, losing the first set to compatriot Fernando Verdasco, but since then has remained relatively unscathed in victories over Czech Jiri Vesely, Uruguayan Pablo Cuevas and Italian Andreas Seppi to advance to the final. The Spaniard did face a minor health problem in his semifinals against Seppi as he seemed to experience breathing problems, to which he took a medical time-out in the second set.
Fognini's road to the final
Italian world number 32 was the champion in Hamburg two years ago, one of only three of his tournament wins on the ATP Tour. Seeded eighth, he was taken to three sets in both of his first two matches this year, surviving against Frenchman Jeremy Chardy and Spaniard Nicolas Almagro, both of whom are very competent players on their day. In the quarterfinals he overcame Aljaz Bedene, who recently changed his nationality to represent Great Britain. Lastly, he downed the surprise package of the tournament, young up-and-coming Lucas Pouille from France, to complete his path to his second final of the season.
The matchup
The final will be the seventh match between the two players, having first faced each other in 2013. The Spaniard lefty won their first four matches, of which two were played on clay - the most successful surface for both Nadal and Fognini - and three were finished in straight sets. That all changed this year when Fognini finally managed to get a victory over Nadal in the semifinals of a fairly small clay tournament in Rio de Janeiro in February. What was especially impressive about the win, was how remarkably the Italian - often criticized about giving in too easily - turned the match around to prevail 7-5 in the third set after handily losing the first to Nadal. The confidence earned from that victory showed the next time these two played a few months later, this time the Italian underdog prevailed in straight sets in the third round of Barcelona to achieve a very rare feat of earning two victories on clay over Nadal in a single season, becoming only the second player after Novak Djokovic to do that.
Now Fognini finds himself with a chance to achieve an even rarer feat of defeating the nine-time French Open champion for the third time on clay in a season. To achieve this, he must stay extremely concentrated to be able to capitalize on any given opportunity - something that is definitely not a certainty for the widely inconsistent Fognini. One thing that on the other hand is certain, is that Nadal, who is looking for his third title of the year, will be hungry to revenge those earlier losses to keep his streak of winning at least one European clay tournament in a season since 2004 alive. Therefore, the Spaniard will take the court as the favorite of the pair.
Prediction: Nadal in straight sets