The summer hard court season heats up this week in Washington, D.C. for the Citi Open. Andy Murray leads the charge as the top seed, returning to the court for the first time since his Davis Cup heroics earlier in July. Defending Champion Milos Raonic is still on the sideline trying to recover from a foot injury. He is still hoping to return to the court next week at the Rogers Cup.
The Citi Open is in just its third year as a 500 level tournament with a 48-player field. Prior to that, the field was set at 32. In the two years with the expanded field, five seeded players have dropped their opening matches each year. This has been a tournament where unseeded players are involved in the business end of the tournament quite a bit. A non-seeded player has made the semifinals in D.C. four of the last five years. In 2010, David Nalbandian won the Citi Open as a wild card, while Radek Stepanek won it as a non-seeded player the following year.
Here is a break down of the four quarters in the 2015 Citi Open draw.
First Quarter
Murray played this tournament just once, way back in 2006 where he made the final. In his return, he has a nice draw. Pablo Cuevas is the seed in his way to the quarterfinals and Cuevas likely will not be in the way at that point. More likely, he will have to get past Ricardas Berankis or Yen-Hsun Lu to get a quarterfinal spot. That should allow Murray to conserve some energy for the tail-end of the tournament.
The bottom part of the quarter has much more talent with 8th-seeded John Isner and 12th-seeded Vasek Pospisil highlighting that part of the draw. Isner shouldn't be discounted from a run simply because of playing Atlanta this past week. During his two previous wins in Atlanta, he was able to make the D.C. final back in 2013 and lost in a third set tie break to Steve Johnson last year.
A better draw this year with Victor Estrella Burgos or wild card Nicolas Jarry first up will help him get off to a good start likely. Pospisil has Tommy Haas or Donald Young. Keep an eye on the Canadian who struggled in the heat and humidity in Atlanta this past week. He could fall early. Isner should have reason to believe he can get to the quarterfinals with this cast of characters.
Second Quarter
Richard Gasquet has been dormant nearly a month now since his Wimbledon semifinal run, so he should be back to being match fit this week. Gasquet will get Malek Jaziri or Gilles Muller first up. Muller would be tougher, but he could be gassed after the long week of singles and doubles play in Atlanta. Expect Gasquet to be in position to get to the quarterfinals. That could come against 15th seed Jack Sock who inhabits the other part of the top half of this draw.
Sock had a poor showing in Atlanta by the standards that are being put on him now. He lost to Denis Kudla in his first match and did not look to give his best effort. That makes this a key week for him to either bounce back or possibly fall into a slump. He gets Marinko Matosevic or Ruben Bemelmans to open which should allow him a chance for a win. This will be Sock's best draw in his third trip to D.C. without the second seed in his way. Last year, Milos Raonic took him out in the third round and in 2013, it was second seeded Kei Nishikori with the honors.
In the bottom half of the quarter, it's Grigor Dimitrov as the six seed and Bernard Tomic as the eleventh seed. Dimitrov will be the one to watch as he comes in with a slew of changes in his life since Wimbledon. Dimitrov has dumped both his coach Roger Rasheed and girlfriend Maria Sharapova. Time will tell if either was baggage holding down Dimitrov. One thing is certain and that is that Ivan Lendl will not be coaching Dimitrov. That announcement came out after the rumor mill swirled for a good week after the two were seen working out together.
Dimitrov is slated to face qualifier Guido Pella or Marcos Baghdatis, although Baghdatis' inclusion in this tournament is in serious question. He suffered a leg injury in the Atlanta final that hampered his effort. This part of the quarter could legitimately go to anyone, but this columnist has a feeling that Dimitrov will enjoy the freedom from the shackles of Rasheed and Sharapova. For this columnist, there is something in the gut that says Dimitrov may work past Gasquet or Sock into the semifinals.
Third Quarter
Marin Cilic leads the charge in one half with 13th-seeded Sam Querrey as the scheduled roadblock to the quarterfinals. Cilic scored his best result of 2015 with a quarterfinal showing at Wimbledon and he could be ready to roll heading into the defense of his U.S. Open title. This columnist likes this draw for him quite a bit as his first match will be either Dudi Sela or Hyeon Chung. Neither can match his power. Querrey looks like the expected third round opponent as he will face either Go Soeda or qualifier Darian King. As long as Cilic comes out firing, this looks like a nice path to the quarters.
In the other half, there should be plenty more intrigue and a lot of aces with Ivo Karlovic as the 10th seed and Kevin Anderson as the fifth seed. Karlovic could be an early casualty with Alexandr Dolgopolov a possible second round opponent. Dolgopolov won the D.C. title back in 2012. Anderson should fare better with qualifier Yoshihito Nishioka or Alexander Zverev as his first opponent. Anderson has made three straight quarterfinals in D.C. and could be in line for a fourth shot. He has the easier road, but this might be one of those unseeded slots with Dolgopolov getting to the quarters. Don't be shocked if that happens or if Dolgopolov loses in the first round. That's just Dolg life.
Fourth Quarter
Kei Nishikori will hope that rest since withdrawing from Wimbledon with a calf injury will have helped him to recharge and enter this swing 100 percent fit. This hasn't been Nishikori's best tournament with a 6-4 record and last year's quarterfinal as his best result. This year, his draw looks like it sets up nicely for something similar to 2014.
The second seed will face either Ryan Harrison or James Duckworth in his opener in the second round. If he survives there, a date with 16th seed Leonardo Mayer or maybe more likely wild card Denis Kudla is on tap for the third round. Kudla could be a bracket buster for a second straight week.
The top half of this quarter is much more wide open with 7th seed Feliciano Lopez and 9th seed Viktor Troicki. This looks like another part of the draw that could see a non-seed sneak through to the latter stages if neither Lopez or Troicki is up to snuff. Even though he has been below-par since the switch back to hard courts, Sam Groth is a name to watch in this part of the draw.
His big serve though will always give him a chance if he can rediscover some consistency with it. Of the two seeds, this columnist thinks Troicki is the more likely to find his game suited to the surface and thinks this comes down to a surprise non-seed or Troicki. Also, this columnist just thinks Nishikori might not be quite ready for a deep run coming off injury.
Predictions
Andy Murray should at least make the semifinals, but for this columnist, the top seed is not favored to take home the trophy this week. Marin Cilic will have to navigate some big servers, but it just feels the summer should serve him well for good results.