Defending Champion Kei Nishikori is back in Japan to attempt to win the Japan Open for the third time in the last four years. Nishikori is a stellar 14-5 at this event with 12 of those wins coming in the last three years.
Top Seeds Face Early Danger
Stan Wawrinka is the top seed with Nishikori, Gilles Simon and Richard Gasquet rounding out the top four seeds. Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic, Kuala Lumpur runner-up Feliciano Lopez and Grigor Dimitrov fill out the rest of the top eight seeds. Five seeds were dumped out in the opening round of this tournament in 2014. That included the top two seeds in Stan Wawrinka and David Ferrer. The two previous years, just one seed lost in the opening round. Back in 2011, there were three seeds who saw early exits.
Among this year's top eight seeds, a majority will face tricky opening round matches in the field of 32. Simon is in a definite danger spot as he opens with Mikhail Youzhny who has made it through qualifying to get to the main draw. Youzhny beat him at the Rogers Cup earlier this season. There is also a tough opener for Gasquet who draws Roberto Bautista-Agut in round one. Fifth seed Kevin Anderson takes on Gilles Muller in is first match since his quarterfinal run at the US Open. Eighth seed Grigor Dimitrov tries to get on track, but faces the mercurial Benoit Paire in what could be a testy first round match.
First Quarter
Stan Wawrinka is your top seed in this quarter with Feliciano Lopez in the bottom part of the quarter as the 7th seed. Wawrinka's fitness could be a question this week as he looks to shake off an ankle injury sustained in the Moselle Open a few weeks ago. If healthy, you would figure the Swiss can take care of Radek Stepanek in the opening round and the draw could shape up well for him. He would have one of two Japanese wild cards to contend with in the second round as Yoshihiyo Nishioka takes on Tatsuma Ito. Oh, but there is this little thing where Ito beat him at this tournament last year. Wawrinka has questionable motivation in non Grand Slams and the status of the ankle is not fully known. That could make this a lot more intriguing than it looks.
If he isn't worn down from Kuala Lumpur, Feliciano Lopez has a legitimate shot to go deep again this week. He opens against Joao Sousa. A win there will get him one of two qualifiers, either Matthew Ebden or Austin Krajicek. These are very winnable match-ups for the Spaniard. It really will come down to how well his body allows him to play with that quick turnaround.
Second Quarter
Gilles Simon and Kevin Anderson are the seeded players in this section of the draw. Simon may do well to get a win this week with a tough opener against qualifier Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny has already beaten Simon this year in straight sets at the Rogers Cup in Montreal. If he survives the opener, the Frenchman would face the winner of Jiri Vesely vs Yosutaka Uchiyama. Vesely has a lot of match play on the Asian swing already in outdoor conditions and could be a threat.
For Anderson, his biggest problem could be getting started. He's been out of action since the US Open and faces big serving lefty Gilles Muller to start. The winner of that one gets the winner of Jeremy Chardy and Sam Groth. Chardy made the quarters here last year and beat Anderson in the second round. There is a possibility that could be the same match-up against this year. As such, this columnist would look for Anderson to be done by the second round. This quarter could spring a surprise semifinalist with Chardy or Vesely seeming the most likely. An unseeded player as made the semifinals each of the last years in Tokyo.
Third Quarter
Richard Gasquet is seeded fourth in this quarter in one half with Grigor Dimitrov as the 8th seed in the other half. Both face early tests with Gasquet opening against Roberto Bautista-Agut and Dimitrov facing Benoit Paire. It would not be shocking to see one of the seeds out in the opening round. There are some real danger men as unseeded players in the rest of the quarter.
Marcos Baghdatis will battle Fernando Verdasco for the right to play the Gasquet-RBA winner. Nick Kyrgios or Albert Ramos Vinolas will be up in the second round for the survivor of Dimitrov-Paire. This quarter looks wide open. If Gasquet can avoid the first round upset, this could be his quarter to take as the match-ups against potential opponents all line up in his favor. Keep an eye on the Baghdatis-Verdasco winner though.
Fourth Quarter
Second seed Kei Nishikori opens with talented youngster Borna Coric. Neither has played since Davis Cup action in mid-September when both were playing on clay. Coric is one of those guys who really gets up for the name players, so this might not be easy. Still, Nishikori has been so good here in front of the home crowd that it would be hard to see Coric coming through. A win would get Nishikori either Alexandr Dolgopolov or Sam Querrey. Both have not been seen on court since losing in the opening round of the US Open. Dolgopolov pronounced himself healthy via Twitter with some shots of himself practicing for Tokyo. When motivated and switched on, the Ukrainian is tough to beat.
On the other side, Marin Cilic is seeded 6th and looked healthy in Shenzhen last week despite losing in the semifinals to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. He opens against Donald Young who made it through qualifying. Young needs some of that US Open swagger to aid this cause, but Cilic looks to still be a bit too much for him on foreign soil. The winner there gets Bernard Tomic or Steve Johnson.
Johnson goes for the hat trick on the Aussie this season with two wins over him already. The American made the quarters here last year. Should Tomic avoid the hat trick though, he did beat Cilic this summer on a similar surface. That could make Cilic prone to a potential second round upset. If seeds hold however, it would be another Nishikori-Cilic clash. Nishikori beat him the last time they met at the Citi Open earlier in the year. Nishikori still looks the man to beat here.
Predictions
Semifinals: Lopez def. Chardy, Nishikori def. Gasquet
Final: Nishikori def. Lopez