Novak Djokovic will look to extend his win streak to 12 matches as he takes on 14th seed Gilles Simon in fourth round action at the Australian Open. Djokovic has not lost since Roger Federer beat him in round robin play at last year's ATP World Tour Finals.
How They Got Here
Djokovic has predictably moved through the first three rounds without dropping a set. His third round match against Andreas Seppi was a bit more of a scrap than expected. The Italian pushed the top seed in the final two sets, but ultimately Djokovic won 6-1, 7-5, 7-6 (6). Djokovic's 37 unforced errors were almost as many as he had in the first two rounds combined (41). That contributed a lot to the score lines of the last two sets. His serve was still solid with the top seed only seeing three break points and he saved them all. Djokovic has only dropped serve twice in three rounds. He was efficient in breaking Seppi three times on six chances. Djokovic said afterwards in his on-court interview that Seppi played him tough, "The match could have gone either way. I didn't think it was going to be as easy after the first set. He was going to step up his game and make it more competitive."
For Simon, the third round was a nice reprieve after a five set encounter in round two against Russian Evgeny Donksoy that saw Simon survive 7-5 in the final set. His third round match against Federico Delbonis was a straight forward, straight sets destruction 6-3, 6-2, 6-1. The match lasted one hour and 41 minutes. Simon was his trademark backboard self against Delbonis. He kept the ball in play and produced rally after rally, allowing the Argentine to beat himself with 39 unforced errors. Simon served well in the match, winning 74 percent of his service points and facing just one break point. It was a marked improvement from the Donskoy match where he faced 16 break points, saving a dozen.
Head-to-Head
Djokovic is 9-1 all-time against his French counterpart. Simon's lone win was their vert first meeting back in 2008 in Marseille. Since then, it is nine straight for Djokovic, including a Davis Cup beat down in 2010. Their last meeting came in 2015 at the BNP Paribas Masters in Paris. The Serb won in straight sets 6-3, 7-5. It was poor play from both in that match as Djokovic was broken five times on serve, but Simon was broken seven times. The Frenchman won just 40 percent of his service points in the match. The only time they have previously met at a Grand Slam was the third round at Wimbledon in 2014. Djokovic dispatched of Simon 6-4, 6-2, 6-4. Djokovic kept his error count low at 23, while producing 31 winners that day. He was all over Simon's serve again as he broke him seven times that match as well.
Rally Lover's Dream
Any time Gilles Simon hits the court, you can expect a ton of long, grinding baseline exchanges. It is what he does. Simon isn't going to whip big ground strokes past his opponents. He's going to force them to play two, three or four balls more than they expect and see if he can't produce an error off their racquets. Djokovic can employ a similar style, except the Serb hits the ball with more authority off the ground and can produce those winners necessary to end the mindless back and forth exchanges that Simon often prefers to get involved in. When the top seed is at his best, he can play two, three or four extra balls and find an angle to finish off the point, rather than finding the unforced error to hand a point to the 14th seed.
How Simon Can Stay Close
Gilles Simon will be charged with trying to keep within shouting distance of the tournament's top seed in most sets. The fact is that Simon's serve is going to be broken down by the superior return game of Djokovic. The Frenchman knows from past experience that the breaks of serve will happen. He also knows that he is capable of wearing on Djokovic enough to get those breaks back within the same set. This is one of those matches where Djokovic has to be careful not to expend too much energy as the tournament gets close to the business end. This is one of those matches that could put extra miles on his legs, if the Serb is not careful.
Look for Djokovic to perhaps take a few more chances to end rallies early, that could result in some errors. Ultimately though, his consistency and shot making cannot be matched by the 14th seed from Nice, France. The "vanilla" play of Simon is good enough to beat the likes of Delbonis, Donskoy and Vasek Pospisil. They fall right into his trap of playing too many balls and making too many unforced errors. Simon's opponents have committed a whopping 177 unforced errors in three rounds. He is unlikely to evoke that sort of performance from the top seed on Sunday.
Prediction: Djokovic wins in straight sets.