The Memphis Open has turned into the Kei Nishikori Invitational over the last three seasons. This year's top seed is back to defend his title as he seeks his fourth consecutive title in Memphis.
ATP Memphis Tournament Overview
This ATP World Tour 250 made history in 2015. Memphis had twice seen Jimmy Connors win the title back-to-back as well as Todd Martin and Tommy Haas since the inception of the event back in 1977. Last year, Kei Nishikori became the first player to win in Memphis three times in a row. This year, he is back as the top seed with an eye on making that four straight. Nishikori is the top seed with a 13-1 record in Memphis. He's followed by Americans Steve Johnson, Donald Young and Sam Querrey to round out the top four seeds. Querrey has the most experience among the tournament field with 26 matches all-time in Memphis. He is 18-8 having won the title once back in 2010.
Seed Report
Last week's 250 level events saw a wide variety of results. In Montpellier, where seeds had traditionally ruled the roost, only two were left standing by the quarterfinals. Seven of the top eight seeds made the quarterfinals in Quito, Ecuador and all eight made the quarters in the inaugural Garanti Koza Sofia Open. Traditionally, upsets are more prevalent at these smaller events and this week could see more of that in Memphis.
Over the last five years, at least two seeds have lost their first matches in Memphis. Traditionally, half or more of the seeds are gone by the quarterfinals. Last year, four seeds made the quarterfinal round. That was the most in the last five years with three seeds in each of the previous four years. In the semifinals, seeds become even more rare with no more than two seeds reaching the semifinals each year between 2011 and 2015.
Once the final rolls around, it is not uncommon to see an unseeded player in the mix. Four of the last five years, an unseeded player has been in the final. Last year was the lone exception when the top two seeds met with Kei Nishikori beating Kevin Anderson. So Nishikori may be the heavy favorite to win it all, but there should be some surprises along the way. Here is a look at this week's top eight seeds.
1. Kei Nishikori
Nishikori has been deadly the last three years in Memphis with a 13 match win streak. He was pushed more last year than in previous trips as three of his four matches went three sets. Nishikori is the deserving favorite and has another draw conducive to putting him in the title hunt.
2. Steve Johnson
Johnson is ranked 30th currently and has just four matches in Memphis with a 2-2 mark. He made the quarterfinals last year where he lost to Kevin Anderson. Johnson has a good run of results indoors since Memphis last year with a final in Vienna last fall along with a semifinal the week after in Valencia.
3. Donald Young
The lefty holds a 7-6 mark in Memphis and made the semifinals in 2015. He's been hit and miss at indoor venues over the course of his career, so par for the course for his career path. Young is just 1-2 this year and has not played since a disappointing first round loss to Santiago Giraldo at the Australian Open.
4. Sam Querrey
After two below average showings for the American in Memphis in 2013 and 2014, he got back on track by making the semifinals last year. He lost a tough three set match to Nishikori with two tiebreaks played in that one. Querrey has not played since retiring from his first round match im Melbourne.
5. Denis Kudla
Kudla draws a tough opening round match against Rajeev Ram. Kudla hasn't done much so far this year and hasn't progressed past the second round in Memphis the last two years. He is on who should be on upset alert in round one.
6. Sam Groth
The big hitting Australian surprisingly has struggled to use his power game advantageously on this surface at the ATP level over the years. He has found some success at Challengers, but only has two main draw wins at this level indoors. Groth has to shake off a loss to Frances Tiafoe last week at an indoor event in Dallas, so he'll be a shaky favorite in round one against Illya Marchenko.
7. John Millman
The Aussie has never played in Memphis, but comes from Montpellier in good form. Millman made the quarters in France and also had a nice third round showing at the Australian Open. Indoor courts seem to suit him well. He won a Challenger title last Fall on the surface and made another final. His first round match-up isn't easy though against Austin Krajicek. The two have split two career meetings.
8. Damir Dzumhur
The Bosnian played in Sofia last week to get his feet wet on indoor hard courts. He scored a nice win against Jiri Vesely and forced Philipp Kohlschreiber to three sets before losing. This still isn't a great surface for him and he'll face a solid veteran in Tim Smyczek to open.
Quarters Preview
First Quarter: Kei Nishikori (1)
The seed opposite of Nishikori is Denis Kudla. The fifth seeded American has a potentially rough opener against Rajeev Ram. Should he survive that, his second round match-up would be either Luca Vanni or Mikhail Kukushkin. Vanni played a lot on indoor hard courts at the tail end of 2015 on the Challenger circuit, but does not have a ton of great results. Kukushkin is always a difficult out when healthy. That should be a tight one, but Kukushkin might be a bit better.
In the top half with the top seed, there is an intriguing all-American clash with Ryan Harrison opening against Frances Tiafoe. It's a picture of what was supposed to be (Harrison) and what could be (Tiafoe) in American tennis. Both played the Dallas Challenger last week, so they got some reps in on the surface. Tiafoe has won the only career meeting last year during qualifying at the Winston-Salem Open. These are the matches that Tiafoe needs to win.
Second Quarter: Sam Querrey (4)
The big hitter's club will be the focus of this quarter. Sam Querrey leads the way in one half and 6th seed Sam Groth in the other. Marchenko is a tough opening act for Groth and difficult to predict. Much like Groth, he's had some positive results indoors, but all coming on the Challenger circuit. Groth's loss to Tiafoe last week is a bit unsettling, so seeing Marchenko win in this one would not be surprising in the least. The winner there gets one of two qualifiers, Yoshihito Nishioka or Jared Donaldson. Donaldson is up and down with a big game, but he is short on consistency.
Up top, Querrey should be settled in for a decent start with Matthew Ebden or qualifier Henri Laaksonen. Neither should pose a significant risk to Querrey although the American does not have much form to speak of so far this year. This quarter should belong to Querrey or Groth, but sometimes the most simple selections fail to live up to expectations. Keep an eye on Donaldson.
Third Quarter: Donald Young (3)
This quarter looks ripe for some upsets. Young is the top ranked player as the third seed, but will have a tough path to make a deep run. His first match will be against the winner between Malek Jaziri and Marcel Granollers. Jaziri lost his only match in Memphis last year in two tiebreaks to Ryan Harrison. Granollers is a hit or miss proposition on this surface. He surprised last year at this time with a semifinal run in the now-defunct PBZ Zagreb Indoors. Both Jaziri and Granollers will pose a tough test for Young.
In the other half, it's 8th seed Damir Dzumhur leading the charge. His opener against Tim Smyczek could yield an upset. The survivor of that match goes against Dudi Sela or Ricardas Berankis. That should be a very competitive opening round match. Sela has won two of three against Berankis and has some solid form this season. Berankis got time in on a similar surface in Sofia last week, where he lost in round two in a tight affair with Gilles Muller 7-5, 7-6 (4). Both have played Memphis before with Sela seeing eight matches in his career. He hasn't won a first rounder in Memphis since 2009. This surface is generally a slightly better one for Berankis.
Fourth Quarter: Steve Johnson (2)
Johnson is stuck in a quarter with a lot of the potential up and comers in American tennis. Taylor Fritz as well as Tommy Paul are both dangerous floaters. Johnson could see Fritz right away. Fritz opens against qualifier Michael Mmoh. Fritz already has a Challenger title to his credit this season and nearly beat Jack Sock in the opening round of the Australian Open. He is a little short on experience on this surface, but it looks well suited to his power serve. Fritz made a Challenger final in just his second tournament indoors last season.
The other part of this quarter should be highly competitive with 7th seed John Millman opening against Austin Krajicek. Those two have split a pair of career meetings. Krajicek played well in Memphis last season with a quarterfinal run after making it through qualifying. He won't be an easy match for Millman, but the Aussie is in far better form. The winner gets Benjamin Becker or wild card Tommy Paul. Becker plays Memphis for the 9th time in the last ten years. He has not made it past the second round since 2012, but is usually a tough out.
Paul makes his Memphis debut. The 18-year-old made a big splash in 2015 with a juniors title at the French Open as well as making the juniors final at the U.S. Open. He parlayed those into turning pro, where he saw some indoor experience at the end of 2015. He made a final in his first tournament, but then lost in the first round of two indoor tournaments to close the season. Paul has played exclusively on clay in 2016 with a bunch of Futures matches and a loss at the Bucaramanga Challenger at the end of January. This may be asking too much of the youngster to beat a veteran like Becker.
Doubles Draw
Memphis sees the return of Bob and Mike Bryan. The Bryan Brothers have scuffled to start 2016 after a third round exit in Melbourne. They are 2-2 this season. As the top seeds, the 2013 Memphis champions were done no favors. They open against a very capable pairing of Nicholas Monroe and Austin Krajicek. Monroe-Krajicek lost in the semifinals of the Ecuador Open Quito last week. The second seeds this week are Treat Huey and Max Mirnyi. Their half of the draw looks a bit smoother early. They may have to contend with Sofia champions Matwe Middlekoop and Wesley Koolhoff or fourth seeds Steve Johnson and Sam Querrey to get through to the final.
The third seeds could be ones to watch. Eric Butorac and Scott Lipsky are in the top half with the Bryans, but have decent form this season. Dangerous floaters to keep an eye on include Mariusz Fyrstenberg and Santiago Gonzalez, who are the defending champions. They are in the top half of the draw with the Bryans and Butorac-Lipsky. Sam Groth and Marcel Granollers are an interesting pairing in the bottom half of the draw. Both are quality doubles players, but they open against Johnson-Querrey.
Predictions
Semifinals: Nishikori def. Querrey, Berankis def. Becker
Final: Nishikori def. Berankis