After all the drama of the French Open, the grass season takes over on the ATP World Tour, with Stuttgart holding their second ever event on the surface after previously being held until 2015 on clay. Roger Federer is scheduled to make his return to the tour at the event, and the world number three heads a promising field which also contains Marin Cilic, Gilles Simon and the recent French Open semifinalist Dominic Thiem. Rafael Nadal is the defending champion but will not play to defend his title.
First Quarter
Top seed Federer headlines in Stuttgart and receives a bye into the second round where he could face promising youngster Taylor Fritz. The American will have to get past a qualifier in his opponent match, before setting the exciting meeting up with the Swiss maestro.
Viktor Troicki is the other seed in the opening quarter, and the Serb has history at the event as he reached the final last year before succumbing to Nadal. He faces a qualifier first, leading to a clash with German Michael Berrer in the second round. Federer’s lack of match practice could start to take effect in the latter rounds, however, his 2-0 head to head record against Troicki should be extended to three during the week.
Projected quarterfinal: Roger Federer - Viktor Troicki
Quarterfinal prediction: Federer d. Troicki
Second Quarter
Third seed Thiem will be in confident mood heading into the grass season, after reaching his first ever Grand Slam semifinal in Paris. The Austrian receives a bye into round two, but big-serving Sam Groth would be a tricky first opponent on grass. He’s projected to meet Feliciano Lopez in the last eight, with the French Open men’s doubles champion will have his work cut out against Mikhail Youzhny in the opening round.
Austrian Thiem is in fine recent form, but grass has never been a favourite of his, giving the slight edge to Lopez, who has had success on grass with three titles in the past two years. Groth has been struggling on tour in 2016, but he could catch the third seed cold if they were to meet in the second round. The pair have already met this year, with Thiem winning in Miami. Another meeting could be hard to call on grass.
Projected quarterfinal: Dominic Thiem - Feliciano Lopez
Quarterfinal prediction: Lopez d. Groth
Third Quarter
The third quarter is arguably the most stacked, with Simon being joined by Juan Martin Del Potro, Grigor Dimitrov, and Marcos Baghdatis. Simon will play his first match on either Wednesday or Thursday, with his opponent likely to be former Wimbledon semifinalist Baghdatis in what would be an intriguing clash. Their head to head is level at three wins apiece, with the Cypriot winning the only encounter on grass back in 2007.
The highlight of the first round draw is Dimitrov clashing with Del Potro, with both players boasting previous runs to the last four at SW19. The winner is projected to face Lucas Pouille in round two, the Frenchman who made a surprise run to the semifinals in Rome after receiving entry into the main draw as a lucky loser. The winner of Dimitrov and Del Potro will fancy their chances of going far at the first grass event of 2016.
Projected quarterfinal: Lucas Pouille - Gilles Simon
Quarterfinal prediction: Dimitrov d. Baghdatis
Fourth Quarter
Home favourite Philippe Kohlschreiber will be well supported in Stuttgart, and will need plenty of backing if he’s to reach the latter stages at the 250 event. He opens his campaign against Pierre-Hugues Herbert, before taking on either Denis Kudla or Dusan Lajovic if he is to progress past the Frenchman.
Cilic is the second seed in the draw, and Denis Istomin could be the Croat’s first opponent on grass in the second round. A quarterfinal clash between Kohlschreiber and Cilic is likely to occur on Friday.
Projected quarterfinal: Philippe Kohlschreiber - Marin Cilic
Quarterfinal prediction: Cilic d. Kohlschreiber
Final stage predictions:
Semifinals:
Federer d. Lopez – A lack of match practice could hurt Federer in this meeting, but their hugely lopsided head-to-head record means it’s hard to back the Spaniard if they were to meet.
Cilic d. Dimitrov – Dimitrov’s inability to win tight matches is likely to cost him in this semifinal encounter.
Final:
Cilic d. Federer – Cilic has only won of their six encounters, but it was in their latest at the 2014 US Open.