Pre-Match Analysis: Southampton prepare to face Nottingham Forest
Credit: Ian MacNicol via Getty Images

Last time out in the Premier League, Southampton won just two top flight games at home - 2-1 vs Chelsea and 1-0 vs Leicester. As a result, most matches at St Mary's during the 2022/23 season are not remembered fondly.

Southampton's last meeting at home against Nottingham Forest is seen as a particularly low point of that season and one that ebbed more than it flowed. This match had a total of one shot on target, which proved to be very damning for Southampton's survival prospects as Forest came away with a 1-0 win.

Despite failing to score in their opening 2024/25 fixture against Newcastle, there is cause for optimism, particularly from an attacking perspective.

Southampton ranked fourth for touches in the opposition box on the opening weekend (48) and they also registered the most shots in gameweek one with 19 - albeit only four were on target

The Premier League homecoming awaits, here are some key talking points ahead of the match.

  • Formation, Formation, Formation

In the heyday of the Ralph Hassenhuttl era, the 4-2-2-2 formation became part of the club's identity. However, this edition of Southampton as a Premier League side has a question mark surrounding the formation conversation. 

Throughout the majority of the Championship season, Russell Martin utilised a 4-3-3, yet during the Saints' triumphant play-off campaign a 5-3-2 structure emerged.

The latter arrangement started the season against Newcastle, but a combination of an early red card, plus a concession of a cheap goal, led to a half-time formation shift.

New signing Yuki Sugawara was substituted for Samuel Edozie, swapping a wingback for a classic winger as the familiar 4-3-3 took shape.

Southampton had to be more front-footed and take control deeper into Newcastle's territory, suggesting Russell Martin considers the 4-3-3 set-up to be more advantageous in situations where his side are in the ascendancy.

A home fixture against the side that ranked 17th out of 20 last season will be ear-marked as a potential three points and, therefore, it will be interesting to see if Martin shifts from the  solidity of the 5-3-2 in favour of the more attacking 4-3-3.

Should Russell Martin opt for an attacking trio instead of a partnership, it is unclear as to who will make the starting XI against Nottingham Forest. 

The triad of Samuel Edozie, Ben Brereton-Diaz and Adam Armstrong started the second half at St James' Park, with Cameron Archer receiving his Southampton debut by way of a 20-minute cameo.

Archer replaced Brereton-Diaz and looked much more adept at playing centrally than his Chilean counterpart. The £15m signing from Aston Villa registered two shots coming off the bench and, with a full week's training under his belt, Archer could be in line to start against Nottingham Forest.

This selection could allow fellow signing Brereton-Diaz to operate on the left side of attack, as seen in Southampton's pre-season friendly with Lazio, whereby the Chilean forward scored after six minutes, cutting in from the left and unleashing an exquisite curling effort into the far corner.

The trusty trio of Flynn Downes, Joe Aribo and Will Smallbone is Russell Martin's preferred configuration in midfield. However, the Southampton manager now has decisions to make due to the arrivals of Lesley Ugochukwu and Mateus Fernandes.

Ugochukwu arrived on loan from Chelsea and primarily operates as a defensive midfielder, which puts him in competition with Downes for a starting role. Downes is considered the linchpin - the metronome of this Saints' side - unrooting him from the XI will be a challenge.

In contrast, Fernandes offers Southampton greater attacking impetus. He amassed 3.74 SCA (Shot-Creating-Actions) per 90 with Estoril in Primeira Liga last season, which is significantly higher than the 2.91 and 2.86 posted by Smallbone and Aribo respectively.

It would be unfair to assign Fernandes as simply just an attacking player as he also registered strong aerial duel numbers last season, something the Southampton midfielders struggled with last campaign. Smallbone won 28.6%, Downes 35.4% and Aribo, with the highest percentage, at 41.2%. Whereas, Fernandes won a mighty 58.1%, dwarfing his compatriot's numbers.

The added creativity and aerial nouse offers Russell Martin an alternative option ahead of his side's clash with Nottingham Forest.