The Amstel Gold Race is the first of the Ardennes Classics and one of the most popular one-day races in the cycling calendar. It is one of the more recent classics, this will be the 49th edition, but it is definitely one of the best supported, the large and rowdy crowds give the race a terrific atmosphere.
Like Liege-Bastogne-Liege and La Fleche Wallonne, the Amstel Gold race is littered with short sharp climbs, 33 in this year’s race, the thickest and toughest of which com towards the end of the 251km course. A gruelling test that has traditionally ended with a mass uphill sprint, however the most recent finish debuted in 2013 and places the finish line 1.8km beyond the famous ascent of the Cauberg. That final run-in isn’t entirely flat but the gradient is very slight and it changes the nature of the finish.
In the past many of the favourites were happy to bide their time, saving energy for the anticipated mass uphill sprint at the end, rather than risking everything by attacking earlier in the race. However the current finish has a more interesting balance so that it is feasible that the race can be won in a number of ways.
It could come down to a sprint from a much reduced peloton, which would favour the fast men who can climb well.
It could also be decided on the slopes of the Cauberg, a 1.2km long hill with a 5% gradient that has ramps of 12%, where a strong puncheur could surge clear and attempt to hold off the chasers over the remaining 1.8km.
Or we could see a repeat of last year’s finish when Roman Kreuziger (Tinkoff-Saxo), a strong climber, attacked from distance and was able to stay clear of a chasing peloton, which had foolishly let him escape in the first place.
All the Ardennes races are highly unpredictable, so identify favourites at your peril. That being said, here are twelve riders who are definitely worth watching on Sunday
Roman Kreuziger – Tinkoff Saxo: It is going to be extremely difficult for Kreuziger to repeat last year’s victory; he lacks the sprint to win against some of the faster finishers in this race, yet won’t be underestimated again if he attacks from distance like last year. Even so the Czech will be highly motivated and could launch his attack when they reach the Cauberg for the final time.
Philippe Gilbert – BMC: The two time champion had appeared to lose a little of his lustre in 2013, but BMC have changed up their approach under Allan Peiper, and that has left Gilbert with a reduced racing schedule and more focused targets. As a result Gilbert appears to be entering Ardennes week in top form, as he showed on Wednesday with a fine victory in De Brabantse Pijl. Gilbert’s strongest asset is his uphill sprinting, and while he is no slouch on the line, there are faster finishers in this field. Thus to win Gilbert probably needs to either surge away alone on the Cauberg, or force an extreme selection which leaves him facing just a few top climbers in the sprint finish.
Alejandro Valverde – Movistar: A double winner of Liege-Bastogne-Liege, Valverde has also won La Fleche Wallonne and just needs victory in Amstel Gold to complete the Ardennes set and has shown terrific form so far in 2014. He recorded his best ever finish last season, finishing 2nd and significantly winning the sprint from the main field after Kreuziger had soloed to victory, which meant that he finished ahead of most of the major contenders for this years race. Valverde is a surprisingly fast finisher for a specialist climber, which means he has a great chance of victory if he is amongst the leading riders when the race comes to the line.
Ben Swift – Team Sky: After injury ruined his 2013 campaign, the English semi-sprinter is enjoying an impressive bounce back season. He has followed up an excellent third place finish in Milan-San Remo with two victories in the Coppa e Bartali and another in the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco, the latter coming on a stage with a difficult hilly parcours. If he can survive the 33 climbs and is able to reach the line with the leading group then Swift has a terrific chance to claim the biggest result of his career.
Michal Kwiatkowski – Omega Pharma-Quick Step: One of cycling’s current phenoms, Kwiatkowski is the ultimate all-rounder, a strong climber, an excellent time trialist and a competitive sprinter. The gifted Polish rider has only really struggled when faced with long climbs, but the climbs here are of the short and sharp variety which suit him well. Kwiatkowski sealed victory in Strade Bianche with an attack on the steepest part of the climb right before the finish, he could try to emulate that and attack on the Cauberg, but it makes more sense for him to follow the moves there instead and rely on his sprint at the end.
Simon Gerrans – Orica GreenEDGE: The Australian Champion has two third place finishes to his credit and is blessed with a great skill set for this race. Strong on the shorter climbs and with good speed at the finish, Gerrans will hope to remain in contention after the ascent of the Cauberg, before outsprinting the remaining riders to the line. Although his fitness and form dipped after his early season efforts in the Tour Down Under, Gerrans looked terrific while working for Michael Matthews on in De Brabantse Pijl. While Matthews also possesses the ability to contend for this race, he is likely to be tasked with repaying Gerrans, rather than riding for himself.
Bjorn Leukemans – Wanty-Groupe Gobert: The veteran Belgian has shown terrific form in the past two weeks. Leukemans was amongst the strongest in both the Ronde van Vlaanderen and Paris-Roubaix, and finished 5th in De Brabantse Pijl. He will find it tough to match the fastest finishers here but could outlast many of them and is more than capable of launching a strong attack before the final ascent of the Cauberg.
Damiano Cunego – Lampre-Merida: Cunego comes into the race as part of a strong looking Lampre-Merida team. World Champion Rui Costa would love to emulate Kreuziger’s winning move from last season, but the peloton won’t hesitate to close down any such attack by the Rainbow Jersey. Diego Ulissi certainly has a skill set well suited to the Ardennes, the punchy climber has a good sprint, however it is Cunego who enters the race as the teams form rider. Cunego won this race in 2008 and looked back to his best in the Vuelta Ciclista al Pasi Vasco.
Tony Gallopin – Lotto Belisol: Another gifted all-rounder, Gallopin has the climbing skills to remain in contention and the finishing speed to bring home victory if the race works out right for him. A win would be a superb boost for the Belgian team who have been enduring a torrid spell of crashes, injuries and mechanical problems. Gallopin himself has had his share of mishaps, but has shown some good form regardless and is definitely a dangerous rider in this race.
Romain Bardet – AG2R La Mondiale: The punchy French climber seems to come alive in the Ardennes Classics, featuring notably in the 2012 edition of this race as a neo-pro, and impressing in Liege-Bastogne-Liege last season. With the explosive Carlos Betancur recovering from illness, Bardet is likely the strongest option for AG2R. Bardet is likely to attack on one of the steeper sections late in the race, but he can finish fast enough to contend from a select group as well.
Bauke Mollema – Belkin Pro Cycling: Mollema has had a quiet start to the 2014 season, but this race is one he will have been targeting right from the start of the year. A strong climber, Mollema has recorded five top 10 finishes in the Ardennes Classics in the last two years, but has yet to threaten the podium. He hasn’t shown the explosiveness to burst away on the Cauberg, but he is a faster finisher than often given credit for and his best chance of victory will come if he can reach the finish with a very select group of climbers.
Tom-Jelte Slagter – Garmin-Sharp: Garmin-Sharp have a number of options and are sure to deploy them aggressively. Dan Martin, winner of Liege-Bastogne-Liege is riding himself into shape ahead of the Giro and Nathan Haas looked very strong in De Brabanste Pijl, as did Alex Howes, but it is the Dutchman Slagter in his home race who should pose the greatest threat. Slagter has the right combination of punchy climbing and finishing speed to suggest he is going to be a factor in the Ardennes Classics for much of the next decade, and he has shown impressive enough form in 2014 to suggest that he can start contending right now..