This weekend sees the last round of fixtures before the early September international break. Arsenal are looking to end on a positive note after their ‘very average’ start to the season, while Steve McClaren is looking to register his first league victory as Newcastle boss. Based on what we’ve seen from both teams in the opening three games, what can we expect from this weeks early kick off at St James’ Park?
Poor conversion proving costly
Arsenal have averaged the highest shots per game so far in the league at 20.7 shots, whilst Newcastle the least – 6.7 per game. Given Newcastle tend to concede 17.7 shots per game, it will be no surprise to see Tim Krul kept busy.However, surprisingly both teams have only scored two goals this season. That gives Arsenal a conversion rate of just 3% and Newcastle a conversion rate of 10%. With both teams seeing approximately 8% of the shots against them hit the back of the net too, it doesn’t bode well for a high scoring game.
Both teams have lost possession around 26 times per game this season. The big difference being that for Arsenal that figure is heavily weighted on being dispossessed – i.e. the ball is won by the opposition player. For Newcastle, over 60% of those lost possessions are down to bad touches – the highest in the league. Their tendency to give away the ball without being under pressure explains why they attempt the least shots and concede the second most shots per game in the Premier League.
This could, and should play into Arsenal’s hands. If they are gifted the ball back, there’s no reason why with the creative players in the side and the pace of Alexis Sanchez those situations cannot be exploited.
Style of play
The style of play for both sides creates an exciting matchup. The Gunners have seen the majority (43%) of their attacks come from the left hand side. No surprise given Sanchez is stationed out there whilst on the right we have a central midfielder in Ramsey. To compliment this Newcastle have had 42% of their attacks down the right side, where Sissoko and Obertan have shared the position. This should make for one side of the field to be considerably busier than the other. The differentiator could be who can exploit the other side of the pitch better.
The heat maps for both sides make for interesting comparisons. Below are the heat maps for Arsenal (v Liverpool) and Newcastle (v Man Utd), which are similar to their respective season so far.
As mentioned earlier, you can see Arsenal’s dominance down the right flank and Newcastle’s favour to the left wing. The surprise in the heat map is the red shadow around Cech’s penalty area. Even against Crystal Palace this was similar, and shows the defensive pressure we’ve been under so far. The Magpies on the other hand have a serious lack of shadow in the opposition box. At Old Trafford this could be expected, but it has been the case in all three of their games – even when they scored twice against Southampton.
From the games so far it seems McClaren is happy to concede possession and play the counter attack. That’s a big call and means he will be very reliant on the efficiency of his new £40m worth of attackers as well as an impenetrable defence. Although to be fair to the former England manager, he’s kept two consecutive clean sheets on two tough away trips.
Key Men
From what we know about the style of play of each side it’s interesting to see who the key men would be for both teams. It’s expected that Arsenal will be camped in the Newcastle half, especially given that the Gunners have seen the most action in the opposition half so far this season (35%) whilst Newcastle have seen the most in their own half (33%). If this trend continues, players like Ozil and Sanchez will be key to unlocking a tightly packed defence, and most likely Giroud will be the man expected to double his goal tally for the season. It won’t be easy given Arsenal’s reluctance to score recently and Newcastle’s reluctance to concede, but should make for a compelling battle.
For Newcastle, the defensive players will be important, that goes without saying. But if they’re looking for the win it would be Wijnaldum, Obertan, new signing Thauvin and whoever starts between Cisse and Mitrovic that are vital. If Arsenal’s first choice defence are not back in time for the trip north, a speedy, ruthless counter attack could be a very potent tactic.
Arsenal have won their last six in a row against Newcastle scoring 18 in the process, conceding only five. At St James’ Park, it’s only four wins in the last six with two draws, although both draws came when the North London side were down to 10 men. Both clubs have started the season poorly from their respective points of view, and both managers will be looking for a win before the international break. The early kick off promises to provide entertainment and plenty of chances. Let’s just hope there are goals too!