As I sit here, waiting for my coffee to kick in, I'm beginning to harbour feelings for this piece much akin to the weather outside, overcast, with not even the slightest chance of sunshine. Usually, it's not too terribly difficult to glance at a team and say, yeah, they've got what it takes to get there, or no, they don't have enough. This however, isn't most years. Bayern Munich, fresh off their own Champions League triumph have reloaded, only with bigger ammunition. Mario Goetze, Thiago Alcantara, and Pep Guardiola have already entered the fold. In addition, Madrid and PSG have grown, while Manchester City have quietly (as quiet as a noisy neighbour can be spending almost £100m) rebuilt their own side to look slightly less imposing on paper, however also slightly more practical. Essentially, the competition is so tough that it is hard to say any whether or not they can realistically win.
An out and out pragmatist looks at the added depth to their (Juve's) defense, and additions of Llorente and Tevez to an already world class midfield, and finds it hard to see anything but an improvement to the quarterfinals squad from last year. However, that same pragmatist also looks to the ability shown by Bayern Munich, and the quality present at the other teams listed above. With the Bavarian giants improving on what was one of the most dominant teams in recent history, they remain the odds-on favorites to repeat.
And that right there raises an incredibly important question, what exactly does "realistically win the Champions League" mean? What qualifies as realistic? Does realistically mean favourites? Does it mean it would not be surprising? Or does it just mean they could, if pieces fall the right way? For the sake of this article, and as an aversion to the deluge of verbosity it would take to analyze every possible aspect of the word realistic, I'm going to define realistic as "It would not be surprising." Yes this raises, various questions as to who it would or wouldn't surprise, but I think we can all agree that most unbiased pundits would all be surprised, and not surprised by the same things.
The Optimist would say, absolutely yes, this team has a great shot at glory.
The Pessimist would say no, not yet, not this year.
But this article isn't about best or worst case scenarios. A best case scenario would see Padova winning the Coppa Italia and Serie B this season, but that isn't happening. A worst case scenario could see the Southern European economic crisis expand north, decreasing stadium and memorabilia revenue to a point where clubs start declaring bankruptcy and shutting down. I hate best and worst case scenarios. They are as likely to happen as Max Allegri changing formation, Conte to start re-growing hair, or Serse Cosmi's blood pressure to drop.
That being said, back to realism. Juventus cannot realistically win the Champions League this year. Not under the definition provided. Not that they don't have a chance, they absolutely have a legitimate shot at winning, but too many people would be surprised if they won. Mainly, because this would mean Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester City, Paris St. Germain, et al. didn't. It could be, that as an Italian I am going to hard on them, underestimating their quality in the eyes of intercontinental football pundits, but I don't think I am. A quick look at the squad shows that Juve's answer to a lackluster attack last season was to bring in someone who hasn't played for a year, and pair him with a hotheaded megalomaniac. Add to that an aging trio of Pirlo, Buffon, and Barzagli, and it may appear some of Juve's core are past their prime. Granted, Marchisio, Vidal, Pogba, Chiellini, and Bonucci are all top quality players; Lichtsteiner, Asamoah, Vucinic, and Padoin aren't far behind either.
What remains however, is that those are too many questions that need to be asked of a Champions League winning caliber team. All Juventini up to this point seem to think Tevez and Llorente are going to step in and solve problems; they very well might. They may also step in, and then step right back out. Look at Eljero Elia two summers ago. He made a last minute jump to Juve, had loads of untapped potential, and went on to make only a handful of appearances. Big profile transfers are far from a done deal and hopes on such transfers should be treated with caution. Hope however, remains, nonetheless.
As I sit here finishing this piece days after I began it, the overcast sky still looks on disapprovingly; whether of my opinion, or of Juventus' chances only time will tell. Granted, this team is talented, there is absolutely no denying that. Are they ready to be considered legitimate Champions League Contenders? Yes. Will it be a surprise if they win the Champions League this year? Yes. And because of that, realistically they cannot be counted among the small number of teams who could win. Not based on my definition of realistic. They could absolutely end up winning, but it would come at the surprise of many.