The Serie A finally resumes its theatrics this Saturday after a wait that took all of my fingernails, most of my sanity, and seemed like 4 years instead of 4 months. Wait, you're right, it was closer to 3.5 months. Point made. What made the wait even harder, is that this is possibly the most exciting Serie A season in recent history. Multiple top names made their way to the peninsula this summer, and fewer top names left. In addition, there were players turning down Manchester United to come to Italy. For a league that less than a decade ago was reeling following a massive scandal and diminished reputation, this is huge.
Now, Juventus clearly had a terrific transfer window, but they were not alone in that regard. Are they still the favourites to repeat? Probably. Will it be easy? No. Based strictly on last season, as well as mercato moves there are at bare minimum 5 teams who could finish in a Champions League place (top 3), and 4 who could conceivably take the scudetto. What does that mean? Even more fantastic match-ups week in and week out. Can you tell I'm excited? Thought so.
Before we dive in I would like to clarify some of my notations and structure which will be used below. The "In" "Out" functions for each of the teams focus only on key acquisitions. Some clubs such as Parma and Udinese brought in a plethora of players no general fan has ever heard of, and then immediately sent them out on loan. In addition, if a player played last season with a club on loan, then was signed permanently this summer, they were also not included as they aren't new to the team (i.e. Candreva & Lazio, Cigarini & Atalanta, Cuadrado & Fiorentina, etc.). Finally, players to look are a combination of the team's best players for some of the more provincial sides, some of the up and coming players in an effort to avoid the obvious ones in a bigger side, or simply players I think are incredibly important to a side. So, when I leave Buffon off the list for Juventus, and Balotelli off for Milan, I am simply acknowledging their status as centerpieces of their sides who will most likely do well regardless.
Lastly, due to the length of this piece I have decided to break my preview into two parts. This one will cover the projected bottom half of the league, while tomorrow's (or tonight's, depending on when you are reading this), will cover the top half of the league. Phew, sorry, that was long; without further adieu, below is my team by team preview, as well as generally specific, (in some cases specifically general), predictions for how each team should perform.
Arrivederci
You should probably look away.
Livorno
Last season's finish: Winner of Serie B Promotion Playoff
In: Mbaye, Bardi, Benassi, Valentini;
Out:
Players to look: Paulinho, Belingheri, Mbaye
Quick hitter: One and done.
Livorno have been the most quiet of the three newly promoted sides, and while they have certainly reinforced their squad, they did so with unproven players; not an ideal start for the clubs return stint to the Serie A. They did well securing loans for Inter quartet Mbaye, Bardi, Benassi, and Duncan, but again all remain unproven in the top flight. Retaining leading scorer Paulinho was big as well, as he was linked with moves away, but ultimately, not making a significant move is going to hurt this squad.
Mercato grade: D
While there is promise here, like Hellas and Sassuolo much of it is unproven. Unlike Hellas and Sassuolo, Livorno did little to add Serie A experience to their ranks. Their failure to do that will hurt them, and I cannot see anyway this side avoids relegation.
Prediction: Relegation
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Hellas Verona
Last season's finish: 2nd Place Serie B
In: Toni, Longo, Donati, Jankovic, Romulo;
Out:
Players to look: Jorginho, Cacia, Longo
Quick hitter: A strong mercato has supporters hoping this season won't be as hellacious as it otherwise might have been.
Oh the challenge of promotion. The reward is often short-lived, hard to stomach in the long term. Supporters go from looking their team win on a regular basis to losing, week in and week out. Will that be the case for Hellas? I'm not quite sure. Their Mercato was solid, bringing in Luca Toni was a nice move, but I think they may regret not bringing in an experienced defender. They re-acquired Fabrizio Cacciatore on loan, but again he was with the team in Serie B last term. Samuele Longo is a nice addition as well, but again, a young striker with no top flight experience. They did well in midfield, surrounding playmaker Jorginho with journeymen Bosko Jankovic and Massimo Donati, and that should go a long way. Overall a good mercato, but it could definitely have been better.
Mercato grade: B+
The aspect I like most about Hellas is manager Andrea Mandorlini who has orchestrated a meteoric rise from the depths of Serie Lega Pro as recently as the 2010-2011 campaign. Throw in playmaking midfielder Jorginho and Serie B capocannoniere Daniele Cacia and the potential is there; again, however, I stress adaptability. It is a tossup how quickly they can make the step up in quality, and the additions of Luca Toni, Jankovic, and Donati will help, but with competition in the Serie A at a recent high, I have trouble seeing it. What it comes down to, in my opinion, is that this team was second to Sassuolo last year, and second again in terms of transfer market acquisitions over the summer. While it's possible both could stay up, it is also unlikely.
Prediction: 17th - 19th
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Torino
Last season's finish: 16th
In: Immobile, El Kaddouri, Brighi, Farnerud, Bellomo, Larrondo;
Out: Ogbonna, Bianchi;
Players to look: Cerci, Immobile, Bellomo
Quick hitter: If Immobile doesn't catch on here Il Toro will be running him off the grid.
This was an interesting market for Torino, as they suffered a huge setback letting Angelo Ogbonna walk across town to rivals Juventus, but in that same token they did well to land Immobile, whom I still have high hopes for, they were able to purchase Alessio Cerci outright which was a massive acquisition, and also landed budding talent Nicola Bellomo from Serie B side Bari. Omar El Kaddouri on loan from Napoli was not a poor move either, but it is the defense I am worried about. Losing Ogbonna is no little thing, and although they did secure Larrondo from Siena as a replacement, his quality is in fact less than the Italian international. However, in grading their involvement is worth noting that Ogbonna was bound to leave, and at the very least Torino managed to secure nothing but cash for him.
Mercato grade: B-
Torino showed hints of promise last year, but at times were simply overmatched. Immobile and El Kaddouri look to join average striker Meggiorini in prayer that something hits the back of the net, while Alessio Cerci is the creative spark that remains the side's hopes and dreams of avoiding relegation. It will be interesting to look starlet Nicola Bellomo to see how he develops, and how much time he is allotted. There will obviously be growing pains, but if he can mature fast enough it may just help stave off a bottom three finish. When it's all said and done, however, its going to be a race between Il Toro and Hellas Verona to grab the 17th, and final spot to remain in the Serie A.
Prediction: 16th - 19th
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Strugglers
A group made up of over achievers, under achievers, and whatever the hell Chievo are.
Chievo Verona
Last season's finish: 12th
In: Radovanovic, Sestu;
Out: Sorrentino, Andreoli;
Players to look: Paloschi, Thereau, Rigoni;
Quick hitter: Look out, cross-town rivals Hellas Verona have one Hell of a sucker punch.
There isn't much positive to say, as their biggest mercato moved involved them selling one of their top players in Stefano Sorrentino to Serie B side Palermo. Alessio Sestu will provide depth in the attacking department, but no more than that. There really isn't much else to say about the flying donkey's except that this lot won't be doing much flying.
Mercato grade: D-
Again, with the number of teams that improved that inevitably means many are going to suffer, namely Chievo. They will have a tough time sniffing the 12th place finish of last year, and will be lucky to hit the top 15. While it is within their ability to retain top flight football, it is also within their ability to crash and burn.
Prediction: 14th - 18th
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Sassuolo
Last season's finish: 1st Place Serie B
In: Acerbi, Sansone, Zaza, Ziegler, Rossini, Kurtic;
Out: Boakye;
Players to look: Berardi, Zaza, Chibsah
Quick hitter: These minnows will be anything but Zzz's with the frontline Squinzi has put together.
I cannot remember the last time a newly promoted side put together such an incredible transfer market. Team owner Giorgio Squinzi has made it clear Sassuolo want to stick around, and he has done a fantastic job. While Berardi's ownership is still uncertain, he playing location is anything but that. The mercurial winger will definitely be a Sassuolo player for the season, and while he won't have Richmond Boakye to work with, he will have up and coming bomber Simone Zaza. Through in giant killer Nicola Sansone (he scored match tying, or winning goals against Juventus, Inter, and Milan last season) and centre back Francesco Acerbi (who was linked with a Milan move) and this is starting to look like a very solid team. LWB Reto Ziegler came over from Juventus, and Sassuolo once again secured a loan move for Chibsah from Parma.
Mercato grade: A+
There isn't much these guys could have done better on paper, and while winning the Trofeo TIM over the summer means a scudetto is out of the reach, that isn't to say retaining a spot in the top flight is. Acerbi and Ziegler are massive additions which will help the backline transition to Serie A, and the experience (although it isn't much) of Sansone will certainly help as well. I remain wary as to how well a 19 year old Berardi adapts to the increased level of play, but if he, and the other youngsters can mature with any pace, this could be an exciting season for the Neroverdi.
Prediction: I could see them finishing as high as 14th, but 15th or 16th is more likely.
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Sampdoria
Last season's finish: 14th
In: Gabbiadini, Bartosz, De Silvestri;
Out: Icardi, Poli;
Players to look: Gabbiadini, Obiang, De Silvestri;
Quick hitter: If they play this season like they played Juventus last year, they'll be Scudetto champions by December.
Overall it was a fairly balanced mercato for Sampdoria as last year's sensation revelation Mauro Icardi walked out the door past incoming young striker Manolo Gabbiadini. Given the chance, I see Gabbiadini exceeding Icardi, but that is up to his coaches, as he was managed poorly last term and played out of position. Losing Poli will also hurt, but the addition of young defensive midfielder Salamon Bartosz is nice, as well as Azzurri call-up Lorenzo De Silvestri.
Mercato grade: B
What was a solid first season in the Serie A last year for Sampdoria was really defined by inconsistency. On one hand they were the only team to beat Juve twice, but on the other despite showing that potential they still managed to finish 14th. Overall they seem to be a team which is average just about everywhere, and stellar just about nowhere. Captain Daniele Gastaldello and Angelo Palombo provide stability in the back, and Italian U-21 centre-half Vasco Regini, who spent last season on loan, should provide a bit more quality if he can make the step up. Pedro Obiang is possibly the most underrated player on the peninsula, as he is a very solid midfield and has already been called up to Spain's national team at the U-20 level. Alongside him Nenad Kristicic and Roberto Soriano round out a solid department. The aforementioned Gabbiadini will look to provide the spark in an otherwise average attacking department primarily made up of Eder and Nicola Pozzi.
Prediction: 13th - 17th
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Best of the Rest
This last group of four is an interesting bunch, and I really struggled with which to move into the top ten, and which to place just on the other side. All four have either potential or stability, and none, except maybe Genoa, should have any relegation worries.
Cagliari
Last season's finish: 11th
In:
Out: Ribeiro;
Players to look: Sau, Ibarbo, Nainggolan
Quick hitter: ummm...
That's not a mistake above, Cagliari made really no key acquisitions. Normally, seeing as how they didn't lose too terribly much a quiet transfer market isn't too bad, but with the heavy hitting the rest of the Serie A did they were surprisingly quiet. There are rumours Juventus are pursuing striker Victor Ibarbo; while I don't see it happening, it is essential that the rossoblu hold on to him.
Mercato grade: C (Assuming they retain Ibarbo)
Like I mentioned above, retaining both strikers will go a long way for Ivo Pulga in fielding a competitive squad, as both are still young and have much to add to the mix. Combine them with midfield engine Radja Nainggolan, defender Davide Astori, and goalkeeper Michael Agazzi and they have a very solid squad. It is not however, going to get them into Europe. While improvement is possible, it is going to be tough. Look for them to finish solidly in the middle of the table.
Prediction: 9th - 13th
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Bologna
Last season's finish: 14th
In: Curci, Della Rocca, Bianchi, Laxalt;
Out: Taider, Gabbiadini, Gilardino, Naldo;
Players to look: Diamanti, Kone, Sorenson
Quick hitter: Diamanti's Hair
Not a bad mercato for Bologna, but not a particularly strong one either. The additions of goalkeeper Curci, as well as midfielder Francesco Della Rocca and former Toro striker Rolando Bianchi will help as well. Losing Gabbiadini is not as bad as it appears, as he was consistently used out of position and was limited at best last year. The same can be said with Gilardino as the Bolognese air* seemed to be the only thing keeping him upright at times, despite a surprisingly successful campaign (*see, Baggio, Roberto, and Di Vaio, Marco). Laxalt could be a nice addition as well, as the young winger brought over on loan from Inter should be a solid option behind Diamanti. Taider is a loss which will hurt, but again, the side did make some nice acquisitions.
Mercato grade: B-
A surprisingly impressive Bolognese attack last year lost parts, and seemingly replaced them well enough. I would be far from surprised to see a Gilardino/Di Vaio type resurgence from Rolando Bianchi, and expect a solid 12-14 goals from him. Diamanti will provide an incredible creative spark once again, and Kone should look to improve after playing sporadically following a mid-season transfer. Young centre-half Frederick Sorenson should continue to improve, and Curci will be an upgrade in goal over Agliardi. Again, in an increasingly tough league it is hard to predict how they will fall; as last year's 14th place finish was fairly accurate, I could see a slight improvement, or decline from the squad by May 2014.
Prediction: 12th - 15th
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Genoa
Last season's finish: 17th
In: Lodi, Marchese, Santana, Strasser, Biondini, Perrin, Gilardino, Sampirisi;
Out: Borrielo, Immobile, Granqvist, Cassani, Vargas, Olivera, Rigoni, Rossi, Frey;
Players to look: Lodi, Kucka, Bertolacci;
Quick hitter: Preziosi's ability to make loans and co-ownerships is second only to Beppe Marrotta, who once co-owned a co-ownership with the option to buy.
Genoa enjoyed an above average mercato this summer; despite losing some important pieces they did well to replace what they lost. Marchese and Lodi from Catania are the two biggest pieces, as Marchese will replace Granqvist in defense and Lodi will add creativity, vision, and ball control to the midfield. Gilardino is coming off a nice season and could very well be an upgrade to Borrielo and Immobile, especially if he can form a partnership with Napoli import Santana. The biggest question marks will be losing captain Marco Rossi to retirement (Lodi will fit in nicely, the question mark comes in the form of leadership), as well as rejuvenated goalkeeper Sebastian Frey. Newcomer Mattia Perrin shows promise, but will he be able to improve upon his play from last season at Pescara?
Mercato grade: B+
Despite receiving a good mercato grade, Genoa worries me. They have a tantalizing amount of potential (ok maybe more like above average), but year in and year out seem to do their damndest to avoid a good finish. This year, I'm placing them just outside the top ten, but reserving the right to say that if management can stabilize and find unity, they could finish as high as 8th. Don't hold your breath on that though. There is a lot to like about this team though, mainly in the midfield. Both Kucka and Bertolacci are quality young players with room to improve, and the addition of Francesco Lodi gives them one of the better regista in Italy. I would go as far as to say the potential of those three playing together makes up the midfield of a Europa League quality team, at least. Marchese is an excellent addition to the back line, and if Gilardino can retain his Bolognese form he should be an upgrade to the Borrielo - Immobile blunder buss of last year. Young Mattia Perrin looks to prove he can be a much better keeper when he actually has a defense in front of him (see Pescara, 2012-2013), and Rodney Strasser from Milan will add depth to an already impressive midfield. Overall, I like the potential, but worry as to whether it will be achieved.
Prediction: 8th - 14th.
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Atalanta
Last season's finish: 15th
In: Yepes, Migliaccio, Nica
Out: Radovanovic, Peluso
Players to Look: Andrea Consigli, Giacomo Bonaventura, Luca Cigarini
Quick hitter: Is the wrong Nerazzurri side on the second half of the preivew?
Atalanta's true mercato wins are not seen on the balance sheet above. Retaining future Azzurri contributor Giacomo Bonaventura will retain the playmaking ability and work rate he brings to the midfield; completing the transfer of Luca Cigarini after he spent the previous season on Loan from Napoli was immense as well as he was instrumental to what success the Nerazzurri were able to grab last season. Yepes should sure up the backline after coming over from Milan, and while the loss of Peluso will hurt, he was gone as of last January so it won't be felt too much.
Mercato grade: B
Atalanta were one of those whose performances last season deserved a higher finish in the table, but not much higher. Better luck could have seen them as high as 12 or so, and that's about what I expect from this team again this season. Denis will continue to score 15 or so goals, Cigarini and Bonaventura will lead, at its worst, an average midfield, and Yepes will provide a security blanket only serving to make Consigli better than he was last year, a year which saw him become one of the more talked about goalkeepers as he earned his first ever call-up to Prandelli's national team side. The squad should certainly improve on last season's result, but the ceiling is still not terribly high.
Prediction: 10th-13th
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Agree? awesome. Disagree? Good thing for me is Zamparini's not my boss (had to throw in at least one Zampa joke). Regardless, if you haven't thrown up from overuse of terrible puns, feel costless to check back tomorrow for the second half of the Serie A!