Real Madrid travel to the Vicente Calderon on Saturday afternoon and will be looking for their first win over Atletico in five attempts this season. Atletico have won three of the meetings (one in La Liga, one in the Spanish Super Cup and one in the Copa del Rey) and the other two have been drawn. The onus will be on Atletico to get a result though as they are seven points behind their city rivals and a draw or loss would make things extremely difficult in their quest to retain their league title.
TEAM NEWS
Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone looks to have his full team at his disposal and any selection headaches will be purely tactical. The key decisions for Simeone will be at centre back, left back and centre forward. Miranda or Gimenez will play centre back, Guillherme Siqueira or Cristian Ansaldi will play left back and up front Fernando Torres or Mario Mandzukic will start. The likely hood is Simeone will give the nod to Miranda, Siqueira and Mandzukic but he may decide to try something different in order to surprise Carlo Ancelotti.
Real Madrid
Ancelotti has quite a few selection headaches for the game and will be without James Rodriguez, Pepe, Luka Modric, Fabio Coentrao and Sergio Ramos due to injury and Marcelo will also miss out due to a booking received in Wednesday's win over Sevilla. Real appealed against the yellow card but the LFP decided the ban stands and the Brazilian will miss the derby. The one positive for Ancelotti is the news that Cristiano Ronaldo will return to the side after serving a two game suspension but the Italian will be concerned at the lack of options in defence.
TACTICS
Atletico Madrid
Diego Simeone's side will be extremely well organised as usual and the priority will be on a solid defence from which they can launch counter attacks. In recent weeks they have used a 4-3-3 but it looks likely they will go with their favoured 4-4-2 although the way they play it often looks like a 4-3-3. They will line up as always with four in defence which will most likely be Juanfran, Diego Godin, Miranda and Guillherme Siqueira.
In midfield Tiago and Gabi will sit in front of the back four and although Koke will be listed as a wide midfielder he won't spend much of the game with his heels on the touchline. Instead the Spanish international will come inside to make a midfield three but in attack he will have more license to get forward than Gabi and Tiago. Arda Turan will play on the other wing but he will have more freedom than Koke and will be the creative influence in Atleti’s play with Simeone hoping he can create openings for the front two.
One headache for Simeone will be who to put alongside Antoine Griezmann in attack. Griezmann will play and rightly so as his pace will trouble Real’s makeshift back four but Simeone must decide whether to go with Mario Mandzukic or Fernando Torres alongside the Frenchman. Torres and Mandzukic have both scored against Real this season but they are very different players and Simeone must decide whose attributes would serve his team better in this game. Mandzukic is a much bigger presence than Torres and against a young Real central defensive pairing Simeone may feel he can cause more problems than Torres whose biggest strength is his pace.
Real Madrid
Real’s team has been more or less been picked for them with injuries and suspensions. The defence will include Dani Carvajal, Alvaro Arbeloa, Raphael Varane and Nacho. Only Carvajal is first choice but the others aren’t bad replacements to bring in and they have all played in big games before.
With James injured the midfield will include Toni Kroos, Isco and either Sami Khedira or Asier Illarramendi. Khedira and Illarramendi have both started games in the last week and it is expected Illarramendi will get the nod on Saturday.
The front line will see Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema line up alongside the returning Cristiano Ronaldo.
Like Atletico, Real Madrid are quite flexible in how they line up. They go between 4-4-2, 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 but the general idea is in defence they will have two banks of four with Bale dropping into the midfield but in attack they will have three out and out forwards with Bale moving up and often Isco will get into the attacking third too. So far it has worked well for Ancelotti and there is no reason to change it now.
KEY PLAYERS
Diego Godin (Atletico Madrid)
The twenty-eight year old Uruguayan has been sensational for Atletico Madrid since signing from Villarreal in August 2010 and has become one of the very best centre backs in the world in that time. Godin has helped Los Colchoneros to six trophies in his time at the club (2014 La Liga, 2012 Europa League, 2013 Copa del Rey, 2014 Spanish Super Cup and the UEFA Super Cup in 2010 and 2012). Godin scored the goal that clinched La Liga last season, equalising in the Nou Camp on the final day of the season and also scored the opening goal of the Champions League Final that Atletico came within seconds of winning in Lisbon last year.
If anyone needs evidence of how important Godin has become for Simeone’s side they need only look at the shambles that was the second leg of the Copa del Rey quarter-final against Barcelona. Godin was suspended for that game and Atletico looked lost without him as they lost 3-2 to Barcelona in an uncharacteristic disorganised display. Real Madrid have scored more goals than anyone in La Liga and if Atletico are to close the gap on their rivals Godin’s contribution will be vital.
Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid)
Real Madrid will be relieved to welcome the Portuguese superstar into their starting line up after he was suspended for their last two games because of his red card at Cordoba on the 24th January. Ronaldo turned thirty this week but if anything he looks to be getting better with age and he is on course to have the best season of his career. He has already scored thirty-six goals in thirty-one games this season and with seventeen league games left and a possible seven Champions League games remaining he could beat the sixty he got in the 2011/12 season.
Ronaldo has won the Ballon d’Or twice in a row now (three in total) but he will be desperate to add to his collection of team honours at Real Madrid. He has won the 2012 La Liga, 2014 Champions League, 2011 and 2014 Copa del Rey’s, 2012 Spanish Super Cup, 2014 UEFA Super Cup and the 2014 FIFA Club World Cup with Real and he will feel he has a chance to add another league and Champions League to that tally this season.
Many have been critical of Cristiano’s form since the winter break but in reality that says more about the high standards he has set himself. In six games in 2015 he has four goals and an assist which would be deemed top form for any player in the world other than Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. This will be Ronaldo’s first game in two weeks and the break could work out well for him as he prepares himself for a crucial three and a half months were he will hope to push Real towards further success. If experience tells us anything it is that Ronaldo will be central to whatever Real do in the coming months and he will come out of the traps firing in El Derbi.
Antoine Griezmann (Atletico Madrid)
Griezmann didn’t get off to the best of starts at Atletico Madrid with some lacklustre performances in the opening three months of the season. He did manage two goals in the Champions League but it took the twenty-three year old until November to get his first league goal for his new club. He got two in that game but only scored once in his next seven appearances for Simeone’s side. Suddenly just before the winter break everything clicked into place for Griezmann and he netted a hat-trick in Atleti’s 4-1 win over Athletic Bilbao at the San Mames. If anyone though that was a one off Griezmann has proved them wrong with some excellent form to start 2015. The French international has five goals and three assists in nine games for Atletico in 2015 and has earned a regular place in the starting eleven.
Griezmann’s main attribute is his pace and in a side that prefer to sit back and defend before countering the opposition he is invaluable. He cost Atletico €30m in the summer and there was a time that move was being questioned but it now looks like a very good piece of business and Griezmann is looking more and more like a world class performer as the weeks go by.
Isco (Real Madrid)
Isco didn’t start the season as first choice and in the opening months of the season his minutes on the pitch were limited, starting just two of Real’s league games before mid October. A manager will always advise such a player to take his chance when it comes and Isco is a classic example of a player doing this. Since he came into the team on a regular basis he has become a key player for Real and he now has three goals and seven assists in all competitions this season.
Many consider Isco as a luxury player but his performances this season have shown that he is capable of helping out defensively when required although his best work is done in the attacking third. Isco has a great range of passing but he can also take on opponents which can be crucial for a team like Real whose opponents will often attempt to “park the bus”. Atletico will most likely sit back on Saturday and someone like Isco could be the difference in unlocking what is usually a stubborn defence.
SUMMARY
This game is quite difficult to predict until we see how the sides approach the game. Atletico usually defend deep and look to counter but they need to win this game or their title hopes are over. Simeone has said in the past however that Real have better players than Atleti and if they make it an open game they could lose 4-0 so it is likely that he will approach the game with caution.
The question then is what will Ancelotti do? A draw would keep Real seven points ahead of Atletico but Real aren’t the sort of team who will play for a draw and they will not want to offer any encouragement to Barcelona in second place.
If both sides approach the game in their usual manner the first goal will be critical. Atleti and Real are both capable of defending a lead and on the counter they can be ruthless. The team that concedes first will be at great risk as they will have to throw caution to the wind and attack which will leave their defence exposed. With the quality of attackers on display and their ability to counter attack in particular it is likely that the team that takes the lead could go on to get more as their opponent pushes for an equaliser.
In terms of who needs to win, this game is more important for Atletico. Anything more than a four point gap will be extremely tough to overcome for Simeone’s side and would almost definitely be the end of their title aspirations. Having said that Real Madrid didn’t get to be European and World champions by not getting themselves up for the big games. They may have injury problems but the majority of their team will be internationals and they will be capable of coming in and doing a job for their team and it promises to be a fantastic encounter at the Calderon.