The Premier League run-in: Outside bets for top four

Will Tottenham or Arsenal fail to qualify for European football and finish outside of the top six for the first time in over 10 years? Is this Sheffield United's year to make their mark and guarantee a Europa League or even Champions League spot for next season? 

Sheffield United are currently sitting in seventh place but with a game in hand over surrounding teams which, with victory, could see them into fifth place, overtaking Manchester United and Wolverhampton Wonderers. Just below are Tottenham who rest uncomfortably in eighth place with North London rivals Arsenal just one point behind and with a game in hand over the Lilywhites. 

With the season about to commence behind closed doors, we are at a critical moment for all three sides who can't afford any more slip-ups if they wish to finish in the top four, or even top six, this season.

How will the break impact the Blades?

Sheffield’s form before the suspension was the strongest of the three sides. They were undefeated since January, securing FA Cup wins against Millwall and Reading and Premier League wins over Norwich, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace. In hindsight, lockdown couldn’t have occurred at a worse time for United and the true test will be whether they can keep the momentum rolling with the return behind closed doors. 

The energetic nature of this current Sheffield side can be seen as unbreakable, even during the suspension, with Huddersfield manager Danny Cowley stating after their friendly: “I thought we took a lot from the two games against Sheffield United in terms of the physical returns and the learning as well.”

Three days after this match, June 9 saw United thrash visitors Hull City 4-0 with goals from John Fleck, Richairo Zivkovic and two from John Lundstram, proving their Premier League dominance over the Championship side and giving the players the boost they need restart their tremendous season. 

The only thing that could hinder Sheffield is that their squad doesn’t have the same depth of the notorious top 6 sides Tottenham and Arsenal, however the current situation may have actually ensured they are fully rested and ready to finish the season how they left off. 

Can Spurs escape their rut?

After a poor run of form without a win since mid-February, this break could be what Tottenham need to rebuild some strength in their side to finish the season on a better note. This spell has allowed their injured stars, including big names Harry Kane and Heung Min Son, to regain fitness, giving Spurs a fully fit squad ready to get back to playing. 

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However, Spurs won't be playing their typical starting eleven for the first game back with Dele Alli suspended over an inappropriate Coronavirus tweet earlier on in lockdown. This should give the chance for latest signing Steven Bergwijn to keep his spot after making a great mark on the club, scoring twice in just five matches played. 

In this suspended period Tottenham have been making the headlines,  criticised heavily for wanting to furlough their non-playing staff. They were essentially forced by the media to reverse this decision with chairman Daniel Levy telling the BBC:

"We regret any concern caused during an anxious time and hope the work our supporters will see us doing in the coming weeks, as our stadium takes on a whole new purpose, will make them proud."

The club's Player of the Season Heung Min Son completed his three-week mandatory military service in South Korea, after his success in the 2018 Asian Games kept him from having to complete 21 months. The forward won an award for the best performance so there should be no doubt that he's fit and strong and ready for season to continue.

Last week Tottenham played a full 90-minute intra-squad match as a friendly, ensuring that their players will all be ready for Friday's tie against Manchester United. They need a full squad with the first run of games being so close together.

The Spurs side also took on Norwich in a friendly, losing two goals to one at their own ground. It looked as if Spurs are still just as shaky as they were before the suspension. Since the match, one unnamed player for the North London side and two Canaries have tested positive for Covid-19 so the Premier League will need to be strict in their testing to ensure that when the season recommences there are no chances of a greater spread of the virus. 

Being regular top four finishers under Mauricio Pochettino, there is no doubt that Jose Mourinho will want to follow through this success and reach the same standards, so this gap should see Spurs start working as a collective unit under their new management and start playing as they have done over the last few seasons.

Arteta's influence

Arsenal seem to have turned a corner under previous Manchester City assistant coach Mikel Arteta, who has taken the team from sitting in twelfth place and six points behind local rivals Spurs going into the New Year to now just one point behind with a game in hand.

Arsenal are unbeaten in the league in 2020 and have won their last three games leading up to the break so, like Sheffield, they desperately need to make sure that they can regain this momentum and not drop their form for the remainder of the season. They will be desperate to finish above their rivals for the first time since 2016 and whilst Spurs seem to be on a poor spell of form, Arteta will be looking to see how he can overtake Jose's side.

Charlton took a 6-0 thrashing from the Gunners in a friendly last week with goals from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Alexandre Lacazette, Eddie Nketiah and Joe Willock. Another friendly tie was a 3-2 loss to Brentford but Arteta is still feeling positive:

"We are trying different things, we are trying to give minutes in the legs to all the players. We have had to change a lot of players through the games.

"We are getting adapted to playing in an empty stadium as well and losing that energy from the fans. It was good, we played two friendlies and we are getting the rhythm, we haven’t played for a while. We tried to make it as close as possible to a real Premier League game."

Cedric Soares missed out on the friendly matches despite recovering from his knee injury, however it's still hopeful that he'll be ready to be in the squad for Arsenal's first match against league holders Manchester City. After injury problems before the break, Keiran Tierney has made his return to playing in the 6-0 win over Charlton. There is still uncertainty when Lucas Torreira will be fully fit but Arsenal fans will be pleased that it's looking likely he will play again this season.

Arteta was one of the first football names to test positive for the coronavirus but it being so early on in lockdown, he was fully fit and ready for when the government allowed training to resume. With Arsenal's training being essentially unhindered, they are looking to be reaching near peak fitness levels to ensure that they can keep up with their top four challenging rivals.

The road to top four

This season has shown more than any how no team can guarantee a win against any club so Sheffield, Spurs and Arsenal need to be ready and assertive against every team they have yet to face.

With Man United being in fifth place, Tottenham need a win on Friday if they want any chance of finishing in the top four and a loss could see them lose all motivation for the remaining games with little hope that they will achieve a European spot. 

Arsenal still have top two clubs - Man City and Liverpool - yet to play, so their run-ins aren't by any means going to be an easy slide for the club. A loss in their first game back could shake their form so they need to not be fazed by the previous champions. With Watford fighting for survival, Arsenal's last game of the season may prove to be one of the toughest if it ends up riding on that game for the Hornets. 

Aston Villa will also be hoping to get out of the relegation battle so Sheffield need to be sharp in their return and hold their ground away to the Midlands side. Chelsea, Wolves, Leicester and Man United look like the best bets for the third and fourth positions so the games against these sides will be very decisive matches over whether Sheffield can breach into one of their places.

It's likely that the ties between the three sides will determine their rankings as Tottenham need victory against both Sheffield and Arsenal in order to place above them, without taking into account the other matches. The three sides have got themselves into a tricky position to where, to make the top four, they not only need to win virtually every match, but they rely on their competitors to lose.

What to watch out for

Dean Henderson, arguably Sheffield's best player of the season, has been an outstanding addition during his loan period to the club, showing great confidence between the posts. He will be looking to push for the number one goalkeeping spot at Manchester United next season and even striving to be on England's first team sheet for the European Championships next year. Man United head coach Ole Gunnar Solskjaer told Sky Sports that Henderson has 'proved he will be England's number one and Man United number one at some point'. The question is: will Michael Verrips step up an take that spot or will Sheffield be looking for a replacement in the summer?

Despite the suspension likely being beneficial for the Spurs squad, it has hit hard on their finances, losing revenue from hosting NFL Games and Anthony Joshua's boxing match which was meant to bring in sums of money to help pay off the stadium debt. It's unlikely that Spurs will be able to make any major signings in summer but the most important thing is keeping hold of their big names if they finish outside the top four and trophy-less yet again. Many may want to follow in Christian Eriksen's footsteps and move onto clubs which they hope will advance their careers further and see them picking up silverware. Many believe Tottenham may consider selling their top goalscorer and past golden boot winner Harry Kane in order to ease their finances.  

A possible target for Spurs is Wolves forward Raul Jimenez and the club have also been linked with Roma goalkeeper Pau Lopez in the last few days. He was loaned to Spurs in 2016 but failed to make an appearance for the main team. 

The futures of Arsenal's young stars Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Emile Smith Rowe are uncertain but the question will be whether clubs will pay the large asking prices Arsenal are placing on their heads. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has given Arsenal his demands, leaving them to create a new deal as he's out of contract next year. Being the current golden boot holder and considered one of the best strikers in the world at the minute, there is no doubt that there will be big clubs interested in him in the summer so Arsenal need to move soon if they want to keep him or have a significant replacement set up.  

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Writer's prediction

With ten games left to play there's still chance for many twists and turns this season and the eight points that separate fourth-place Chelsea and ninth-place Arsenal can be quickly overturned with the dynamics of the Premier League.  

The only team I can truly see threatening the top four is Manchester United due to the addition of Bruno Fernandes, who's made a tremendous start for the club, however, personally, I can't see the top four altering from how it is now. The inconsistency from Man United, Arsenal and Spurs lately makes them unlikely to solidify a top four position. With the new substitution rule allowing a team to make five rather than three subs a game, Wolves and Sheffield lack the squad depth to utilise this as effectively as the bigger clubs who have a greater range of players on the bench that will make an impact on the game.

Whilst Chelsea haven't by any means played as well as expected based off their form at the start of the season, I still think they look the strongest to remain in that fourth place spot for the remainder of the games.