It truly is tough to say who the favorite is to win the 2015 450 Lucas Oil Pro Motocross Championship, although it can definitely be narrowed down to the three most likely riders: Ryan Dungey, Ken Roczen, and Eli Tomac. However, other riders such as Trey Canard, Blake Baggett, and Weston Peick may all be able to vie for podium finishes. Here are this writer's top-10 championship contenders, ranked in order from first to tenth.
1. Ryan Dungey
After an amazing Supercross season, Ryan Dungey, in my opinion, is the most likely title contender for the 2015 Pro Motocross Championship. The combination of his surreal consistency and fitness makes him a threat to win every time he’s on the track. He also has been getting very good starts all season long, which is crucial to obtaining good results. Dungey has improved a lot since last year, and has been impressive all year so far. Expect him to continue his winning ways as the outdoors season gets underway this weekend.
2. Ken Roczen
Roczen will make his return to racing as the reigning national champ after suffering an ankle injury in the Supercross season; his ankle is supposed to be fully ready for Hangtown. Roczen clearly has what it takes to win a championship, but he seems to always slightly fade in the last half of a season; this small inconsistency will be all that it takes for him to lose the title to Dungey. There’s no doubt that he will be fast however, so expect him to get quite a few moto wins.
3. Eli Tomac
Tomac definitely has the speed to win the championship this year, but in my opinion bad starts and general inconsistency will prevent him from doing so. However, if he manages to figure those things out, he very well could be your 2015 450 Lucas Oil Pro Motocross champion. Keep a close eye on his position around the first corner, and his ability to come through the pack.
4. Trey Canard
Unfortunately, Canard is supposed to miss the first couple of rounds due to the arm injury he suffered in Supercross. However, he should only miss two rounds at the most, and should still be able to finish quite high in the overall point standings at the end of the series. Once he does come back, I expect him to be riding near the front, and definitely contending for wins. At the very least, expect some podium finishes from him. Canard is very fast when he’s healthy, and his great supercross season before the injury will provide him with lots of confidence.
5. Weston Peick
Peick is having a career-best season so far this year, and I expect him to continue that trend into the motocross series. Generally, he seems to always do better outdoors than he does in supercross, so if that pattern upholds, he’s in for some podiums and lots of top five finishes this summer. However, he did seem to be struggling with his fitness for most of the Supercross season, although it looked like he had it figured out by the last round in Vegas. Nonetheless, his fitness will be something to watch for this summer.
6. Blake Baggett
Baggett is another rider that always does better outdoors. Thus, after a very impressive rookie 450 supercross season, I’m expecting an even more impressive season for him outdoors this summer. He’s definitely capable of some top 5 finishes and some podiums. He also won a Pro Motocross title back in 2012 in the 250 class, so he knows what it takes to ride near the front. At this point, the only doubt I have about him is whether or not he can be consistent for all 12 rounds in his rookie 450 season.
7. Justin Barcia
After an injury-riddled indoors season, I’m expecting Barcia to be very motivated to get back near the front. However, he has never done the greatest outdoors, and I personally don’t think he has the speed for a full moto to grab a win against Dungey, Roczen, or Tomac. Futhermore, he sat out most of the motocross series last year with an injury, so expect some inconsistent finishes from him as he figures things out.
8. Cole Seely
Seely typically doesn’t ride as good outdoors as he does in Supercross, so I don’t think he will be nearly as impressive as one may expect based off of his Supercross results. However, he did seem very well adjusted to the HRC Honda 450, and perhaps his smooth riding style on the bigger bike will allow for him to get some good results this summer. Regardless, I don’t foresee many finishes for him outside the top 10.
9. Jason Anderson
Anderson has the speed to potentially finish within the top five, but I think some crashes throughout the series and some bad starts will probably hold him back. For the most part, I expect him to be riding just inside the top 10 for most of the races. However, he is training with Aldon Baker, and riding with Dungey, Musquin, and Cianciarulo for practice, so perhaps he will be more prepared and more consistent than I expect.
10. Christophe Pourcel
Pourcel’s results are really hard to predict, for he has definitely had some ups and downs throughout his career. He has only raced two 450 rounds in his life, so he is essentially a rookie to the class. As a result, I expect him to finish mostly just inside or just outside the top 10. However, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see him very fast and riding within the top 5; only time will tell.
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