Predicting The Red Sox 2016 Lineup

For the second straight year, the Boston Red Sox are calling up their prospects in August and giving them a two month tryout with the big league club to see who fits into the picture for 2016. The Red Sox are sitting twelve games behind the New York Yankees in the American League East division and 9.5 games behind the Los Angeles Angels for the second wild card spot. According to MLB.com, they have a 0% chance of making the postseason. So, instead of acquiring key veterans at the trade deadline and gearing up for a postseason push, the Red Sox have called up pitching prospect Henry Owens, along with outfield prospects Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo and corner infielder Travis Shaw. More prospects are sure to follow, like pitcher Brian Johnson who is on the disabled list but should be ready to go in a few weeks. It’s the perfect time to start predicting the 2016 roster which is what Ricky Doyle of Nesn.com did on August 10.

Doyle predicts this starting lineup for the Red Sox:

CF Mookie Betts

2B Dustin Pedroia

SS Xander Bogaerts

DH David Ortiz

1B Hanley Ramirez

3B Pablo Sandoval

RF Rusney Castillo

LF Brock Holt/Chris Young

C Christian Vazquez

Bench:

Young/Holt

Jackie Bradley Jr. OF

Travis Shaw 1B/3B

Ryan Hanigan C

That looks pretty good. Of course, this all hinges on how much Ben Cherington wants to think about acquiring outside help. All of those players are under contract for 2016 except Chris Young, the New York Yankees outfielder. Most of the lineup could be correct as well. Betts will almost certainly sit atop the lineup though maybe not necessarily in center field. Some people think the Red Sox should trade Dustin Pedroia and move Betts back to his more natural position at second base. The Pedroia trade is unlikely but if it happens, it would probably happen during this offseason, as his no-trade clause kicks in following the 2016 season. So if Pedroia gets traded, this lineup is obviously incorrect. However, assuming Dustin stays with the team, that lineup looks like it has a an excellent 1-2 combination.

Xander Bogaerts who has been superb in his second full season after a disastrous rookie campaign is a staple in the lineup. While Bogaerts has been batting third lately, it’ll be interesting to see whether he stays there. He has power (12 home runs in 2014) but seems to have traded power for a high average. He has only three home runs but his average jumped from .240 to .313. If Bogaerts can improve his power and keep a decent average, batting third is an excellent spot for him. If not, maybe he switches with Pedroia in the order. Pedroia isn’t exactly a power hitter but he has flashed power this year, swatting nine dingers before his injury.

David Ortiz will, assuming he doesn’t go a huge power streak down the stretch, will continue his chase for 500 home runs in 2016. He’s another staple in the lineup.

Hanley Ramirez is an interesting piece in the lineup. He has not been bad on offense in his first season with the Red Sox after signing a four year, $88 million contract. His .262 average is respectable and his 19 home runs are great at first glance. However, when you consider the fact that 10 of those home runs came in April, the nine home runs in the past 3.5 months is less impressive. However, the big issue with Ramirez is his defense. He has shown an inability to play left field and it is time that the Red Sox consider moving him to a new position. His best options are third base and first base. However, Ramirez has no experience at first base and he does have some, albeit limited, experience at the hot corner. If Ramirez moves to third, that means the next hitter in this order, Pablo Sandoval, would move to first base.

Though primarily serving as the San Francisco Giants’ third baseman, Sandoval has experience on the other side of the diamond and could move there, if only to get Ramirez out of the outfield. Sandoval hasn’t been good defensively either and is suffering through a career worst offensive year. His .254 average is forty points below the .294 mark he accumulated during his seven-year stint with the San Francisco Giants.

Right now, Sandoval is just a big bust after Cherington signed him to a five-year contract. It’s even possible that Sandoval, after starting the season as Boston’s dangerous #5 hitter in the order, could drop down to the seventh or eighth spot much like Mike Napoli this season. He remains a hitter that can hit the ball a mile and has proven that he can hit for a high average but just isn’t performing.

The seventh man in Doyle’s lineup is right fielder Rusney Castillo. After the Red Sox signed Castillo to a massive seven-year, $72.5 million contract, Castillo was bust for the better part of 2015. He started in Triple-A, starting the season on the disabled list and, in a few call-ups to the big club, did not perform well. However, in his latest call-up, Castillo has shown promise. The Cuban outfielder is hitting .326 since he was recalled from Triple-A on July 27, has walloped one home run, along with 8 RBI. His batting average jumped from a dismal .237 to a respectable .268. If Castillo can perform like he is now, is spot in the lineup is almost certain.

Batting eighth and platooning in left field in Doyle’s lineup is super utility man Brock Holt and the veteran Chris Young. Holt can play anywhere on the field, is hitting .273, can bunt, steal bases, and is under contract for just over 500,000 dollars. Not a bad deal. In fact, he's good enough that there isn’t much reason to go after Young.

Young is a career .236 hitter, better known for his defense. He’s affordable but less affordable than another Red Sox option in Jackie Bradley Jr. Bradley has looked less overwhelmed at the plate in a few appearances with Boston this season and has put together two straight two-hit games, including his game on Sunday when he accumulated a whopping 5 RBI. If he can pull his average up to the .230-.240 range, he could be an excellent fourth outfielder for the Red Sox. He provides Gold Glove-caliber defense, a nice thing to have off your bench.

The ninth slot in Doyle’s lineup is a controversial one. He has Christian Vazquez starting as the catcher. Vazquez and current Red Sox catcher Blake Swihart have almost the exact same amount of MLB experience. Swihart has shown to be a little bit better offensively, but not much better. He has made less errors than Vazquez but has thrown out just 32% of potential base-stealers while Vazquez has thrown out over 50%. Hanigan is a good choice to back up the catcher position and develop Swihart and/or Vazquez. Swihart reportedly much more offensive potential than Vazquez so it’s not a crazy idea that he could see some time at first base, depending on where the Red Sox stick Hanley Ramirez. Doyle doesn’t have Swihart on the roster which appears to be unlikely at this point but anything could happen.

On the bench for Doyle is Bradley, Hanigan, Holt/Young, and Shaw. Hanigan, Bradley, and Shaw are all excellent choices. Bradley can be the fourth outfielder, filling in for Holt when the super-utility man is needed elsewhere. Hanigan can be an excellent veteran backup catcher and Shaw can backup the corner infielder spots. As stated above, there isn’t much reason to bring Chris Young into the picture. The Red Sox have a deep farm system and they might as well start using it. Deven Marrero has seen action with Boston in a few separate stints with the big club. He is known for his spectacular defense and is said to have a decent bat. He’s normally a shortstop but played second base during his call-ups to Boston. He’s a great option to back up the middle infielders, rather than have a fifth outfielder in Young. Another option if Marrero doesn’t develop well is to keep newly acquired utility man Josh Rutledge on the roster and use the infielder to back up Bogaerts and Pedroia.

While the offense doesn’t need a lot of adjusting for the Red Sox, the pitching certainly needs work. Doyle has this pitching staff for the Boston Red Sox:

RHP Stephen Strasburg

RHP Clay Buchholz

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

RHP Rick Porcello

LHP Wade Miley

Strasburg is the bold pick there but Doyle explains in his article why it is actually a plausible idea that the Washington Nationals will shop Strasburg. Other options for an ace include new Toronto Blue Jays pitcher David Price, new Kansas City Royals hurler Johnny Cueto, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke, Chicago White Sox pitcher Jeff Samardzija, and Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitcher A.J. Burnett. All of those pitchers, except maybe Samardzija, are ace-like pitchers.

Burnett is the cheapest of those options but his 3.06 ERA in the National League may not be the numbers that the Red Sox are looking for in their ace. Price, Cueto, and Greinke are all likely to obtain contracts of six or seven years, north of $130 million. The Red Sox don’t have the money to dish out for that kind of ace so, unless they can convince one of those aces to come to Fenway for less money, Boston will have to look elsewhere. Veteran Mark Buehrle and the ageless Bartolo Colon could be cheap enough options but also may not be the ace that the Red Sox are looking for.

One option is to bring back John Lackey who is having another excellent season. He’s 36 years old and will likely come cheap enough for Boston’s budget. Lackey, despite his age has done well avoiding injury since his Tommy-John surgery in 2012. Besides the surgery, he’s been quite healthy throughout his career. John Lackey could be an excellent ace for Boston and Buchholz would fit well in the #2 slot. He’s a guy that can be dominant, but due to his injury history, he cannot be relied on as an ace. Eduardo Rodriguez, Rick Porcello, and Wade Miley would fit nicely to round out the rotation, though it may be a good idea to flip Porcello and Miley, giving Porcello the #5 slot until he returns to his former self. Henry Owens could fit in there too, depending on how his two-month try-out goes.

We now move to the bullpen where Doyle has put in a few controversial names:

Drew Storen

Koji Uehara

Junichi Tazawa

Joe Kelly

Steven Wright

Charlie Furbush

Mike Dunn

Out of those seven names, three aren’t on the Red Sox roster right now and two are in the starting rotation.

Storen is the Washington Nationals’ closer-turned-set-up man. Rumor is that he is not happy after his team acquired closer Jonathan Papelbon and knocked Storen down to the set-up role. While it could be possible that the Nationals trade Storen, the Red Sox may also go the free agent route.

Closer Koji Uehara is showing few signs of slowing down and has been excellent this season. However, Uehara is now out for the season which could affect his 2016 campaign. If this is the case, then the Red Sox should invest in a closer like Pittsburgh Pirates’ closer and free agent to be Joakim Soria, (24 saves, 2.53 ERA). Or do the Red Sox shoot for the stars and grab one of the best closers in the game in Wade Davis of the Kansas City Royals who will be a free agent after the season. They would bump Uehara down to a set-up role and give Tazawa the seventh inning. That’s an excellent 1-2-3 punch at the back of the bullpen.

The Yankees have essentially two closers at the back end of their bullpen in Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller. That way they can use strategy in the ninth, mixing and matching pitchers based on matchups or, if one pitcher is slumping, move him down to a set-up or seventh inning role until he returns to his form.

The next big bullpen need is a middle relief man. Doyle has current starter Joe Kelly in the bullpen which is an excellent idea. Kelly’s high-90s fastball and decent slider could fit well into a middle-relief role.

Steven Wright is an interesting pick for the bullpen. Knuckleballers, particularly those who are still trying to make a name for themselves in the major leagues, are a little too unpredictable to put in a battered and ineffective bullpen. Maybe as a long relief/mop-up role if he goes to the bullpen. However, if Wright can pitch well over the last few months, he could make a bid for a rotation slot come spring training.

The last two pitchers on Doyle’s list are Charlie Furbush and Mike Dunn. Furbush, who is in the midst of a career best season, may be an unlikely bullpen addition for Boston as he’s a 29-year old pitcher who has a 2.08 ERA and is under the Seattle Mariners’ control for several more years. Unless the Mariners decide to sell high on him, there’s little chance that the Red Sox acquire Furbush.

As for Dunn, who is a member of the Miami Marlins, there is little reason that the Red Sox would want him. In five full seasons, Dunn has put together two bad seasons, two mediocre seasons, and one good season. This season is one of his bad campaigns. In fifty appearances, Dunn has pitched to the tune of an ugly 5.30 ERA.

So, without Dunn or Furbush, the Red Sox are looking at a bullpen of Uehara, Tazawa, and maybe a new addition like Soria or Davis at the back end of the ‘pen, while Joe Kelly and Steven Wright handle middle relief and long-distance duties. There’s room for another pitcher or two which the Red Sox can probably find in their system. Fireballers Matt Barnes and Pat Light are both in Triple-A. Other Triple-A relievers include Jonathan Aro, Robby Scott, and Noe Ramirez.
Ramirez, Barnes, and all have minimal major league experience.

So, after exploring many options and examining Doyle’s lineup, here is this writers' prediction for the Boston Red Sox 2016 lineup, bench, starting rotation, and bullpen:

Lineup:

CF Mookie Betts

SS Xander Bogaerts

2B Dustin Pedroia

DH David Ortiz

3B Hanley Ramirez

1B Pablo Sandoval

LF Brock Holt

RF Rusney Castillo

C Blake Swihart

Bench:

OF Jackie Bradley Jr.