Despite the 27-10 loss to the Bears in their opening preseason game, any Dolphins fan would be lying if they said they weren’t thrilled about how the team looked on Thursday. The training camp buzz was that Ryan Tannehill has taken a huge step forward in his second training camp under Bill Lazor’s offense. Tannehill delivered, completing six of his seven attempts on the opening drive for 56 yards with a touchdown to second year receiver, Jarvis Landry. He finished the drive with a quarterback rating just under 140. Lamar Miller also looked sharp during the series, rushing for 32 yards on just three carries, including a 27-yard run. And although they had two holding penalties on that drive and were missing former Pro Bowl left tackle Branden Albert, the offensive line looked decent.
When the defense got onto the field, it was clear Ndamukong Suh wanted to make his presence felt. On his first play in a Dolphins uniform, Suh caused the Bears’ offensive line to jump early, resulting in a false start. The Bears were forced throughout Suh’s short time being on the field to double team him, leaving holes in the offensive line that players like Jelani Jenkins, Reshad Jones, and Cam Wake were able to take advantage of. The second team defense didn’t look quite as good as the first team did, but 2nd year defensive end Terrence Fede and rookie defensive tackle Jordan Phillips both looked sharp, which is a good sign because they are expected to be part of Miami’s defensive line rotation.
Once the second half started and the third stringers were in the game, the Dolphins fell apart on both sides of the ball, but, honestly, most of those players won’t be on the 53-man roster once the regular season comes around. So this leaves us with the question: based on Miami’s first preseason game, are they a playoff team? Last year they went 8-8, which was good enough for 11th in the AFC standings and 3rd in the AFC East. Based on how the team has looked in training camp and against the Bears on Thursday, Miami looks like a 10-6 team that has the potential to go 11-5, but injuries to key players could drop that record to another 8-8 season.
Last year, 10-6 would have put the Dolphins in a tie with the Ravens for the second wild card spot. The Bengals had the other wild card spot with a 10-5-1 record. However, the Dolphins will also be challenged for the wild card this year by the Chargers, Texans, and Chiefs. In terms of the division race, the Patriots went 12-4 last year but they will start 2015 with Tom Brady on the sidelines for four games, unless his suspension gets removed or shortened. The Patriots face the Jaguars and the Bills during that time, so when Brady returns from suspension, the Patriots will most likely be at least 2-2, which is exactly how they started last year. It may take a key injury for the Patriots to drop below 11-5, but the team lost both Vince Wilfork and Darrelle Revis in the offseason season, so they could drop to 10-6 without any key injuries.
The Dolphins are right at the edge of being a playoff team or just missing the playoffs, but the team could raise their chances of making the playoffs by making a move before the season starts to fill one of their holes at guard. Evan Mathis was an all-pro guard for the Eagles in 2014 but after demanding an extension, he was cut from the team. Now he is a 33-year-old free agent but expects a lot of money or at least a deal that gives him multiple years. The Dolphins may not have the financial stability to go after Mathis without adjusting another player’s contract.
A cheaper option that would still improve the offensive line for Miami would be Rob Sims. From 2010 until 2014 he started every game for the Lions as their left guard. Sims went into the offseason expecting to re-sign with the Lions but they didn’t offer him what he thought he deserved and Detroit decided to go in another direction, signing former Broncos guard Manny Ramirez. It is not clear whether Sims would want to join the Dolphins or any team in the NFL, as he is considering retirement.
The third option would be to trade for a guard. If the Dolphins want to deal for a top-notch guard, they’ll have to give up either some significant draft picks or a vital player. One player that they could consider dealing is Olivier Vernon. Vernon is a good pass rusher who has 21.5 sacks in his three seasons in Miami. He is in the final year of his rookie contract and is not expected to re-sign with the Dolphins next offseason due to their lack of cap room. Terrance Fede has taken a huge step forward in his second training camp with the Dolphins and seems ready to have regular playing time. He or Derrick Shelby could take Vernon’s spot opposite of Cameron Wake on Miami’s defensive line.
Even if the Dolphins don’t make a move before the regular season starts, they have what it takes to make the playoffs this season. Joe Philbin is in a do-or-die situation- if the Dolphins don’t make the playoffs he knows his job is on the line. If they do make the playoffs, Philbin could be in position to get a contract extension by season’s end. The motivation is there, the talent is in place, and all that is left is the execution.