After three long months away, it is finally time for the teams to fire up the engines as Formula One roars back into life this weekend with the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix from Sakhir.
The 2024 season is already sizzling with storylines - and we have only just finished pre-season testing. Max Verstappen begins his quest for a fourth straight title, Lewis Hamilton starts his farewell tour with Mercedes and Ferrari look set to be the immediate challengers to the latest Red Bull dynasty.
We have new cars, new names and new faces in the teams in Formula One this season, although no new drivers are on the grid. Extraordinarily, this weekend’s race will mark the first time in Formula One history that the lineup of drivers for the season opener is exactly the same as the final race from the season prior.
There are no new circuits either this year, but Formula One will hold a record 24 Grand Prix in 2024 in 21 countries across five continents. This elongated season will undoubtedly push the drivers and teams to their limits and perhaps this season will be more a test of endurance than outright speed.
Speaking of endurance, F1’s feature length season requires a feature length preview. Let’s take a deep dive into what could define Formula One’s 75th season.
Hibernated during the winter? Here’s what you missed:
Lewis goes all in on red
An unusually active off-season was, of course, highlighted by the announcement of Lewis Hamilton’s blockbuster move to Ferrari for the 2025 season. Hamilton will be 40 years old when he dons the famous Scuderia red for the first time and will likely stay for a couple of years to try and win that elusive eighth title.
Hamilton’s departure from Mercedes at the end of 2024 will mark the end of the greatest driver-team pairing in the history of the sport, but his move to Maranello is more indicative of the Brackley based team’s current position. Being in the third fastest car on the grid and without a race win since 2021 is simply not good enough for Lewis Hamilton and therefore his exit from the Silver Arrows is not as surprising as one immediately may think.
One thing that can be guaranteed is the domino effect on the rest of the grid that Hamilton’s move will have and a thought must be spared for the unseated Carlos Sainz who will likely find himself in a more uncompetitive car in 12 months time. Mercedes certainly have a plethora of options to fill the vacant seat, perhaps even Sainz himself.
Two hot favourites for the hot seat in Fernando Alonso and Kimi Antontelli couldn’t be more different with regard to age and experience. For context, Antontelli was just two months old when Alonso won his second title and has lived fewer years on Earth than Alonso has years driving in F1.
Either would be a more than adequate replacement for a seven-time world champion. Mercedes will be more than thankful they have the best part of the entire season to make the teams biggest decision since 2016, when then champion Nico Rosberg stunned everyone with his retirement.
Andretti down, but not out
January saw the news that Andretti’s bid to join the grid for 2026 as the sport’s 11th team was turned down by Formula One, much to the dismay of fans. F1 cited that Andretti would not add value to the sport and nor would they be competitive as their reasons for denying the American team’s entry.
Regardless, the door has been kept open for a potential debut in 2028, one that would be backed by General Motors and Cadillac. Andretti will hope this will add more value to their bid as they look to become the first team to join the sport since Haas did in 2016.
Hola Madrid! F1 to head to the Spanish capital
Formula One also announced in January that the Spanish Grand Prix will swap Barcelona for Madrid from 2026 onwards. The new race will take place at a semi-permanent street circuit near the city’s Barajas airport and will mark a return of the sport to the Spanish capital for the first time since 1981, when F1 raced at Jarama.
The news was unpopular with fans who have become somewhat unsatisfied by the amount of non-permanent venues used in modern day Formula One, but the sport’s bigwigs say that the event’s sustainability and accessibility will make Madrid a massive success. We will see in 2026 when Madrid becomes F1’s ninth street circuit.
How are the teams shaping up heading into 2024?
2023 Constructors Championship: 1st
Drivers: Max Verstappen & Sergio Perez
It would be almost impossible for this year’s RB20 to reach the sensational heights of last season’s dominant RB19, even under the guise of the indomitable Max Verstappen, but Red Bull certainly have no plans on relinquishing their stranglehold over the rest of Formula One.
They will have more competition this time around, certainly at least from Ferrari, but Max Verstappen will be the overwhelming favourite and any result other than the Dutchman claiming his fourth championship will be a huge surprise.
The big question in Milton Keynes revolves around the team’s number two driver Sergio Perez. Checo’s contract with the team is up at the end of the season and the odds on the Mexican retaining his seat are not stacked in his favour, in part thanks to an error-strewn 2023 season that saw him stumble to a second place finish in the driver’s standings in F1’s most dominant car ever.
No one really expects Perez to challenge Verstappen for the championship, but the gap certainly has to close. Perez’s Formula One future might well depend on that fact.
Prediction: Verstappen to win Drivers Championship, Red Bull to win Constructors Championship, Perez to lose his seat.
2023 Constructors Championship: 3rd
Drivers: Charles Leclerc & Carlos Sainz
We’ve seen this rodeo before with Ferrari, but the signs from pre-season testing are certainly encouraging for the Scuderia.
The most notable improvement with the SF-24 compared to its predecessor is its long run pace. While the gap hasn’t completely closed, it would appear Ferrari are closer to Red Bull than at this stage last year, a fact that will delight the Tifosi.
The single lap, low fuel runs looked pretty good too, although it is easy to forget that Ferrari actually claimed seven of the 23 pole positions available last season and came mighty close on numerous other occasions.
Aside from the car, Ferrari’s in-race management also needs to markedly improve. We won’t see whether it has until lights out on Saturday but the team can’t continue to squander opportunities if they expect to compete with Red Bull.
If nothing else, Ferrari must ensure they send Carlos Sainz, an unfortunate fall guy in the ultimate Formula One power trip, off with a bang. An invaluable servant to the team, Sainz has been much more than a number two driver to Charles Leclerc. The Scuderia must not do him wrong.
Prediction: Ferrari and Leclerc to finish 2nd in respective championships, Sainz to leave Ferrari with at least one race win.
2023 Constructors Championship: 2nd
Drivers: Lewis Hamilton & George Russell
To put it in perspective, Sir Alex Ferguson was still manager of Manchester United when Lewis Hamilton joined Mercedes back in 2013 but the two must now unite for one final ride in 2024.
The W15 is a vastly different car to the W13 and W14 and yet the jury is still out as to whether it is much faster. Testing would suggest the Silver Arrows have edged closer to Red Bull but have also been leapfrogged by Ferrari in the process.
Lewis Hamilton himself remarked that the W15 is “easier to drive” than the two previous iterations of machine that Mercedes have sent out in this current era of F1. Toto Wolff will know better than anyone that a happy Lewis translates into a faster Lewis.
Regardless, the potential certainly appears to be there to extract a race win or two out of this car, something Mercedes will be desperate to give to Hamilton who has remained winless since that extraordinary inaugural race in Jeddah at the end of the 2021 season.
Attention will then turn to the unenviable question: who will replace Lewis Hamilton?
Prediction: 3rd/4th place finish in the Constructors Championship with Hamilton winning one race.
2023 Constructors Championship: 4th
Drivers: Lando Norris & Oscar Piastri
No team has ever improved their car as much from pre-season testing to season's end in recent memory as McLaren did last year, as the Woking team climbed from second slowest in the pecking order to arguably second fastest.
The extra work on the 2023 car might put them on the backfoot initially in 2024, but should the MCL38 receive the same levels of in-season development as its predecessor, McLaren will be well on the way to their best season of the turbo hybrid era.
The papaya and black team also have one of, if not the strongest driver pairings in all of Formula One. Lando Norris is now incredibly entering his sixth season while Oscar Piastri will begin his sophomore season coming off the back of a highly successful rookie campaign.
Crucial to Norris’s season, and to some extent his McLaren legacy, is finally getting that first Grand Prix win that has so far eluded him. It will certainly be tough given the competition, but if not now, then when?
Nevertheless, breaking into the top three once and for all will certainly be a success for McLaren this season. With two great young drivers, they can definitely afford to play the long game.
Prediction: Norris finally claims first Grand Prix win, 3rd/4th place finish in the Constructors Championship.
2023 Constructors Championship: 5th
Drivers: Fernando Alonso & Lance Stroll
Every year it seems that there is a team that finds itself in ‘no man’s land’ and this year it appears to be Aston Martin.
Slower than the four in front and yet significantly faster than the rest of the midfield, it is hard to pinpoint what Aston Martin can achieve in 2024. Their biggest achievement might in fact come off the track if they can convince Fernando Alonso to stay instead of leaving for Mercedes.
Aston Martin might have some speed, but they appear to be lacking in momentum. The Silverstone outfit were the talk of testing a year ago as they became Red Bull’s closest challengers, but the development race soon caught up with them and they finished a disappointing fifth.
Any advance on that seems hard to see at this moment but another fifth place finished is certainly not to be sniffed at.
Prediction: Comfortable 5th place finish.
Visa Cash App RB
2023 Constructors Championship: 8th
Drivers: Yuki Tsunoda & Daniel Ricciardo
It would (thankfully) appear that RB spent the majority of their winter break focussing on their new car, rather than their new name. Certainly the pre-season testing results have paid dividends.
RB, then known as AlphaTauri, spent much of the 2023 season at the basement, but the arrival of Daniel Ricciardo coupled with some mid-season developments changed the fortunes of the team as they were able to climb up the pecking order. Small sample size aside, RB again seem to have made great strides and look set to lead the ‘second half’ of the midfield when F1 gets going for real at the weekend.
RB arguably have the two drivers under the most pressure in their lineup this season. Yuki Tsunoda is coming off a disappointing 2023 season in which he was outperformed by Liam Lawson while he deputised for the injured Daniel Ricciardo. Lawson will surely be a shoe-in for a 2025 seat if Tsunoda struggles once again.
Ricciardo himself will have one eye on the Red Bull seat, regardless of when it opens up. The Australian must drive himself into contention and earn the right to partner Max Verstappen once more, whenever that might be.
Prediction: 6th place finish in the Constructors Championship, Tsunoda to lose his seat at the end of the season.
2023 Constructors Championship: 7th
Drivers: Alexander Albon & Logan Sargeant
No rookie season in Formula One is easy, and nor should the achievement of reaching F1 be understated, but Logan Sargeant’s debut season with Williams was distinctly poor.
Alex Albon excelling in exactly the same machinery didn’t do much to help the American driver’s case either and despite being contracted to remain with the team from Grove for 2025, Albon will certainly be looking further up the grid for a seat in a more competitive car.
Williams appear to be set in a midfield battle once again and there is certainly no shame in that for a team lacking the financial muscle that its great rivals such as McLaren and Ferrari have at their disposal.
It would be fantastic to see Williams further up the grid, but expectations are realistic at the team. Allocating resources to build up the confidence of struggling Sargeant will surely end up well spent.
Prediction: Make a run at RB for 6th place, Sergeant to lose his seat at the end of the season
2023 Constructors Championship: 6th
Drivers: Pierre Gasly & Esteban Ocon
It has rained a lot in the UK over the winter break, but perhaps nowhere more so than at Enstone - the home of the beleaguered Alpine F1 Team.
Alpine have become notorious for their ruthlessness at dispensing of personnel when it comes to not meeting expectations. Suffice to say then that the outcome of testing in Bahrain will have gone down like a lead balloon amongst the team.
Far too much money has been spent and far too many people have lost their jobs at Alpine for the project to still not only be struggling, but seemingly also be heading in the wrong direction.
First impressions of this year’s A524 are not good. Pierre Gasly himself described the car as “not great” - about as damning an assessment as a driver can give. The team know what they have to work on though and it wouldn’t be at all surprising if Alpine’s 2024 challenger is completely different by the time the European races roll around.
For the time being, however, expect a difficult start to the season.
Prediction: Alpine remain pointless for the first few races before eventually finding some form.
Kick Sauber
2023 Constructors Championship: 9th
Drivers: Valtteri Bottas & Guanyu Zhou
Another team with a new, or rather returning identity for the 2024 season, Kick Sauber are about to embark on their first season without any affiliation with Alfa Romeo for the first time since 2018.
It also feels as if the team are just biding their time ahead of the new technical regulations in 2026 and, more importantly, the huge financial plus that is the upcoming Audi takeover.
Before then, Sauber have plenty of work to do on and off the track to provide Audi with a suitable launchpad for when they take over the team. The Swiss team have two more than capable drivers in Valtteri Bottas and Guanyu Zhou but as always in Formula One, you are only as fast as the car underneath you.
Sauber must aim to capitalise on the ‘crazy’ races this season, where big points can fall right into teams’ laps. Do that and they could finish higher than many people expect.
Prediction: Sauber prevail in a tight battle with Haas for 9th place.
2023 Constructors Championship: 10th
Drivers: Kevin Magnussen & Nico Hulkenberg
It has been a tumultuous off season for Haas. Changing team principals midway through the winter break has led to instability in the team, with new team boss Ayao Komatsu left to pick up the pieces in the wake of Guenther Steiner’s departure.
Despite this and while they appear to have the slowest of the ten cars on the grid, testing wasn’t by any means an unmitigated disaster for F1’s American team. Testing is as much about run time as lap time and Haas were able to complete more laps than any other team over the three days in Bahrain.
Like other teams on the grid, Haas will have a decision to make regarding their drivers come the end of the season. Both are ageing and out of contract but also carry a wealth of experience that could prove invaluable.
Whether they choose to stick with what they have or opt for youth in the future, Haas can’t afford any more misses in their decision making. They otherwise risk being left behind at the back of the pack.
Prediction: A “competitive” 10th place finish in the Constructors Championship.
Follow the 2024 Formula One season with us at VAVEL, beginning with the Bahrain Grand Prix from the Sakhir International Circuit this Saturday.