Date: Monday, December 30, 2013
Where: Fort Worth, Texas
When: 11:45 AM Eastern Time
TV: ESPN
Line: Navy -6, Over/Under is at 56
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8-4 Overall, 6-2 in C-USA, Finished T-2nd in East Division)
It was an interesting season for Middle Tennessee. They started 3-1 with victories over Western Carolina, Memphis, and Florida Atlantic. They dropped three in a row to BYU, East Carolina, and North Texas. The Blue Raiders then won their final 5 games. All four of their losses were to teams that will play in bowl games. They were 1-4 overall against bowl teams with the lone win over Marshall. Here are Middle Tennessee's stats for the 2013 season:
Last Bowl Game: 2011 GoDaddy.com Bowl vs. Miami (OH) (35-21 Loss).
Passing Offense: 207.4 yards per game (85th in the FBS)
Rushing Offense: 208.3 yards per game (25th)
Points Scored per Game: 30.9 points per game (57th)
Passing Defense: 218.8 yards per game (42nd)
Rushing Defense: 185.4 yards per game (85th)
Points Allowed per Game: 26.4 points per game (64th)
Player to Watch: Quarterback Logan Kilgore. It was tough to pick a player with the balanced offense that Middle Tenneesse has. He is more than able to manage the game for the Blue Raiders. In the 4 losses, he had 2 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. In the 8 wins, he had 10 touchdowns to 5 interceptions and never had a negative touchdown to interception ratio.
Navy Midshipmen (8-4 Overall)
Navy started the season with a big upset win over Indiana on the road and then beat Delaware handily at home. Unfortunately for Navy, 4 of their next 6 games to drop to 4-4 overall. Navy finished the season on a 4 game winning streak including the 3 overtime thriller over San Jose State and the victory over Army. This will be Navy's 10th bowl game in the past 11 years. Here are Navy's stats for the 2013 season:
Last Bowl Game: 2012 Fight Hunger Bowl vs. Arizona State (62-28 Loss)
Passing Offense: 98.9 yards per game (122nd in the FBS)
Rushing Offense: 322 yards per game (2nd)
Points Scored per Game: 34.3 points per game (33rd)
Passing Defense: 215.8 yards per game (T-36th)
Rushing Defense: 186.2 yards per game (86th)
Points Allowed per Game: 25.9 points per game (58th)
Player to Watch: Quarterback Keenan Reynolds. As with any triple option offense, the quarterback is the key and Navy is no exception. Reynolds has 250 carries for 1124 yards and 26 touchdowns. Reynolds can throw the ball as well despite the preference to run in this offense. He has 1028 yards passing with 8 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. By the way, he is only a Sophomore so he will be around for a 2 more years.
Prediction
The uniqueness of the triple option is tough to simulate in practice and takes at least one quarter to get used to at game speed. In addition, Navy gets a favorable matchup against the 85th ranked rushing defense. Still, Middle Tennessee's balanced offense should allow their defense to get the rest needed from Navy's rushing attack. Let's go with Navy to win 35-30.