Week 4 Playoff Picture: "Chosen" Rosen Bounces Back

Welcome to the week four playoff picture! After four weeks of college football season only one thing is clear, nobody has any idea what is going to happen. Fortunately, that's not what we are here to do. In anticipation of some new reader's this week, let's re-establish the parameters of this little exercise. First, these are not predictions, they are merely a snapshot of how the college football world stands after a week of play. There are some reasonably good predictive factors that go into the rankings, but that doesn't mean that they are intended to be used as such. Next, this is solely based off of what has happened on the field to date. Preseason rankings and future matchups have no bearing on any of this. Lastly, it should be noted that one of the major factors that comes into play here is how well you play against your competition in a given week, in addition to who you play. The premise being that all wins have value (and losses have negative value) and the real challenge is assigning the appropriate value to those wins. Anyway, enough about process, it's time to take a look at this week's imaginary bowl games.

Cotton Bowl (#1 vs. #4)- UCLA vs. Florida State

Florida State RB Dalvin Cook (Photo Courtesy of USATSI/CBS Sports)

Whoawhoawoowah Borat! UCLA looked unreal on Saturday night. Josh "Chosen" Rosen, coming off of a game where he looked like the true freshman he is, returned to the quarterback savant form he exhibited in his first two college games. The running game was also at peak performance with Soso Jamabo, also a true freshman, and Paul Perkins combining for 181 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Defensively, the Bruins benefitted from Arizona QB Anu Solomon leaving the game early with a likely concussion. Losing Myles Jack didn't cost UCLA too much this week, but that is still a massive loss and when added to the loss of Eddie Vanderdoes, the front seven injuries have to be the biggest source of concern for this team going forward. If Josh Rosen continues to play like this, then this team can overcome those injuries and is not only a Pac-12 contender, but also a national title contender.

Florida State enjoyed a week off this week, and many people have been less than impressed with the Seminoles offense so far this season. However, Dalvin Cook is on his way to a monster year running the football and the defense has been stout. The 'Noles defense has allowed a mere thirty points through three games. Sure, USF, Texas State and Boston College aren't exactly offensive juggernauts, but until someone proves they can be scored on the defense has earned some recognition. Everett Golson has shown flashes of brilliant play, but at other times has looked like the turnover machine he turned into late last season. His play, more specifically consistency of play, will be the determining factor in how good this team will be going forward.

Orange Bowl (#2 vs. #3)- West Virginia vs. N.C. State

WVU Safety Karl Joseph (Photo Courtesy of USATSI/CBS Sports)

N.C. State makes its second straight appearance in the weekly playoff after undressing South Alabama with a 63-13 win in Mobile. The Wolfpack, like Florida State, haven't exactly played a murderer's row so far, but they have controlled their last sixteen quarters of football. Jacoby Brissett, one of the many former Florida quarterbacks around college football, has been excellent so far this season completing 78% of his passes for 809 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. Matthew Dayes also has nine rushing touchdowns through four games. The Pack open conference play this week against Louisville before travelling to Blacksburg to take on the Hokies.

Couches are aflame in Morgantown and for great reason. West Virginia's defense has looked exceptional giving up only one touchdown to FBS competition this season. Shutting out Georgia Southern sounds unimpressive, but before you fall into that pit of thinking consider that Georgia Southern has topped 40 points in every other game they've played this season. The defense has also forced eleven turnover already this season, which trails only Cal (who has played one more game than the Mountaineers), and lead the country in turnover margin at +9. Wendell Smallwood and Rushel Shell are an electrifying running back duo and Skyler Howard has looked competent so far in Dana Holgorsen's offense, which is very demanding of good quarterback play.

Sugar Bowl- Baylor vs. Georgia

Baylor HC Art Briles (Photo Courtesy of Tony Gutierrez/AP Photo)

Greyson Lambert carried over his stellar quarterback play from last Saturday this week en route to a walkover win over FCS Sourthern. Nick Chubb tied Herschel Walker's consecutive 100+ yard rushing game streak in the process at twelve. This will be a big week for the Bulldogs with Alabama coming to town. The Dawgs can still win the East and even the SEC with a loss this weekend, but if they want to get into the playoff debate and cement themselves as a contender, then a win this weekend is paramount. Georgia has all of the tools to beat the Tide, especially with it being a home game, but if there is a source of concern it will be the front seven matchup. UGA has one of the strongest defensive fronts in college football, but there strength lies in rushing the passer. They were built similarly to an NFL front seven with speed rushers off the end like Leonard Floyd, but against Alabama it's much more important to be strong in the middle. Slowing down Derrick Henry will be critical if the Dawgs want to win, because if they can force Jacob Coker to beat them, then the odds are that he will not be able to do it based on what he has shown so far in 2015.

Two things seem constant for the Baylor Bears in the Art Briles era: gaudy offensive stats and a featherweight non-conference schedule. Fortunately, the Bears closed out non-conference play this week by beating Rice like a drum. Baylor opens conference play next weekend at Texas Tech in a game where the over/under might just be one hundred. The Red Raiders are much better this year, as seen by their defeat of Arkansas and near defeat of TCU, and the Bears need to bring their "A" game or they will not be leaving Lubbock with a win.

Rose Bowl- Ohio State vs. Utah

Ohio State QB Cardale Jones (Photo Courtesy of Steve Helber/Associated Press)

Ohio State bounced back from a lackluster showing against Northern Illinois, and Cardale Jones seemed to put his part in that weak showing behind him. Jones passed for 288 yards and two touchdowns on the day, both of which came in the first half. Ezekiel Elliott continues to run wild on opposing defenses having topped one hundred yards in nine consecutive games dating back to last season. Braxton Miller hasn't been quite as big a part of the offense since his breakout party in a new role in the opener, but if needed he could still be a gamebreaker when the offense has to have a play late in a close game. As for the defense, they were always expected to be great this season, even before they embarked on that championship run to close last season. It's hard to tell just how good they are given their competition level up until this point, and they did give up 24 to Virginia Tech on Labor Day, but there is good reason to believe that they will be very good on that side of the ball going forward.

Utah had the most surprising win of any power five team on Saturday. That they won is not surprising, but the manner in which they won was very surprising. There's a good chance that we end up looking back on this game as the closing of Oregon's championship window under the current regime. Oregon is clearly not as good as they were last year, but their step back looks so significant that the program doesn't even look the same. Many people believed that Chip Kelly's departure would ultimately cause a return to the pack for this program, and it seems as if those people might be right. Granted, the season is still young and Oregon is still immensely talented so this could end up being a minor setback, but that's not how it looks currently. Utah, on the other hand, looks like a program on the rise despite the internal turmoil of their head coach and athletic director being unable to stand each other. Travis Wilson had a monster game with 227 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and five total touchdowns. Oh, and that win over Michigan in the opener is looking more and more impressive.

Fiesta Bowl- Texas A&M vs. Navy

Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett prepares to hit Arkansas QB Brandon Allen (Photo Courtesy of Sam Craft/The Bryan-College Station Eagle via Associated Press)

This game may not be a service academy game per se, but considering that Texas A&M is a senior military college, it's pretty close. Texas A&M has one of the largest ROTC programs in the country and is one of only six colleges and universities in the country to receive the designation of senior military college. The Aggies are pretty good at football too. Christian Kirk is the latest freshman offensive star for the Aggies, and Kyle Allen is starting to come into his own. Kyler Murray also adds a running quarterback element to the offense, making them that much more difficult to gameplan against. Myles Garrett is considered by many to be the current favorite to go first overall in the 2017 draft, and nothing in his game currently suggests that he isn't already an NFL caliber defensive lineman. He and Daylon Mack, along with the leadership of John Chavis, bring a ferociousness back to a Texas A&M defense that has been a major drawback for this team over the last couple of seasons.

Keenan Reynolds is most likely going to be the NCAA career rushing touchdown leader by the end of this season, and Navy seems like a contender for both the AAC championship and this automatic "Group of Five" New Year's Six bid. The win from two weeks ago over ECU looks even better now that the Pirates just knocked off Virginia Tech, and the Midshipmen won handily, if not impressively, over UConn on Saturday. The next two weeks will be more telling of just how good this team is with a home date against a solid Air Force squad this coming Saturday and a trip to South Bend on the 10th. That will be the last big game for Navy until November which contains trips to both Memphis and Houston in games that will be major factors in shaping the AAC championship race in all likelihood.

Peach Bowl- Ole Miss vs. Notre Dame

"Swag" and the Rebs came out flat against Vandy on Saturday, but still managed to get the win, which will be all that matters as long as they keep winning. Ole Miss riding the power of powder blue picked up a big win over the Tide though, which puts them in the catbird seat in the SEC West alongside LSU. Their top talent is as good as anybody's, especially if and when Laremy Tunsil returns, and that defense might be the most balanced in the conference. One thing Ole Miss does need to do better if they want to win the West and compete for a playoff spot is run the football. Jordan Wilkins is a little bit bigger than Jaylen Walton, and based on that may be a little better suited to being the every down back using Walton as a change of pace back and a return man. Walton is a talented player and a solid home run threat, but his size is not conducive to carrying the ball twenty plus times a game. It's also worth noting that after last season's performance in the Peach Bowl maybe this isn't the destination for them, but from a location standpoint it made the most sense.

Notre Dame has battled through the loss of Malik Zaire admirably. The Irish kicked off the season with an impressive drubbing of Texas and even though the scores of the Virginia and Georgia Tech games aren't outstanding, they won and did it with Dashone Kizer stepping in and stepping up. Kizer definitely has the ability to be a high caliber college quarterback and "can make all the throws", but he is still nineteen years old, so he inevitably will have some growing pains. A big key for the Golden Domers, like UCLA did against BYU, will be finding a way to win when their quarterback suffers through some youthful mistakes. The experience surrounding Kizer, both on offense and on the other side of the ball, should make that easier. There is also a pretty good chance that an opportunity to find that out will come sooner rather than later with Notre Dame traveling to Clemson for the "Gameday" game this coming Saturday.