Pre-Match Analysis: Brighton and Hove Albion vs Manchester City
Ansu Fati retains possession under pressure from Manuel Akanji in the reverse fixture earlier this season. (Photo by Charlotte Tattersall / Getty Images)

It is getting to that crunch time of the season now where Manchester City seem imperious, unbeaten in their last 18 Premier League matches and now just four points behind league leaders, Arsenal, with two games in hand on the Gunners.

However, they are visiting a Brighton side who have only lost twice at home in league action all season, and in this fixture last term held the Citizens to a draw as they confirmed qualification to the Europa League for the very first time.

Albion, who are winless in their last four, enjoyed a week off following their dull draw away at Burnley 12 days ago.

Meanwhile, City have complained about fixture congestion in the last week, having played Real Madrid and Chelsea in that time. 

It is expected that Guardiola may have to shuffle his pack after he rested Ederson, Josko Gvardiol and Mateo Kovacic in last Saturday's FA Cup Semi-Final, while John Stones and Ruben Dias were only given 45 minutes each. 

However, hosts Brighton should be well-rested and ready for the tough task ahead, despite their double-digit injury list being added to by the injury to Pervis Estupinan just 13 minutes in last time out.

  • Brighton's possession plan

Only Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur average more than Brighton's median 61.7% possession per match and De Zerbi's men are not scared to hold onto the ball against anyone. 

Even against league leaders Arsenal, it was Brighton who, despite running out 3-0 losers, dominated the majority of possession with a healthy 55%.

However, the Seagulls need to be less wasteful with the ball and make the most of their chances.

This is because, despite having Pascal Gross in their side - who ranks second in the league for chances created this season (90 chances created), only behind Martin Odegaard by one chance created - the Seagulls have had fewer big chances (75) this season than the likes of Brentford (97) and Everton (78).

Another trouble for De Zerbi's side is that they're not as clinical as before.

Sure, this could be down to the vast amount of injuries, particularly in attacking areas with the likes of Solly March and Karou Mitoma missing huge amounts of the season.

But the Seagulls have missed 48 of their 75 big chances (64%), and despite only the top three teams in the league averaging more than their 5.8 shots on target per match, they have only scored 36 goals from open play; the same amount as 17th-placed Nottingham Forest.

So, how could Brighton snatch the points?

In this fixture last season, Brighton held the Citizens to a 1-1 draw where they played exceptionally well, however, it was a bit of magic from Julio Enciso which earned them a point.

The Paraguayan rounded off a terrific team move by picking out the top right corner from 25 yards out and earning himself last season's Premier League Goal of the Season award in the process, highlighting how individual quality is often the difference maker against the best. 

Enciso is a doubt for this one, however, his South American colleague Joao Pedro is likely to start following a well-earned rest. 

The Brazilian number nine is Brighton's top goalscorer with 19 goals in all competitions, despite only starting 22 matches and, like Enciso, struggling with injuries this campaign. 

Many may knock Pedro for scoring many of his goals from penalties, however, his success rate is 100% and he has won six penalties this season in all competitions, highlighting how his magical feet can be, always being difficult to defend against. 

  • Manchester City's high-line

The Sky Blues may be vulnerable on the counter-attack, which is something that Brighton could look to exploit through Joao Pedro and Simon Adingra in particular. 

However, their high line more often than not suffocates their opponent with their domineering possession statistics, which average a whopping 66.1% (the most in the Premier League).

Unlike Brighton, who have struggled for goals of late with only three in their last five matches and two of them being own goals from the opposition, City are in emphatic scoring form.

Pep Guardiola's side are level with league leaders Arsenal in terms of goals per match this campaign with an impressive 2.4.

This is reflected in their xG numbers where they are outperforming expectations substantially too, having scored 76 goals from an xG of 68.3.

Having the Premier League's top goalscorer Erling Haaland as their number nine may have helped them out a lot throughout the season, but he has struggled for form of late, with only two goals in his last nine matches for club and country in all competitions and missing out with a knock last weekend.

Brighton will be relieved that an expected explosive return to form for the Norwegian striker, who has netted three in three against the Seagulls, will not happen in this one due to injury.