Path A
Path A has been considered by most to be the most competitive of the three paths, with some real quality between the sides. The four teams in this path are Wales, Poland, Finland, and Estonia. The two semi-final matchups see Wales take on Finland and Poland facing Estonia.
Wales are considered the team with the highest chance of qualification, with @We_Global stating they have a 48.15% chance of going to Germany in the summer. After a poor start to their qualifying campaign, a big win over Croatia meant that Wales had a good chance to qualify if they could defeat Armenia and Turkey. However, draws in both games meant they came up short in their attempts to qualify automatically. However, their squad is filled with quality, with players such as Harry Wilson, Brennan Johnson, and Daniel James all having fantastic seasons for their clubs. Wales will certainly be a team to watch, and it would not be surprising if they are the side to qualify.
Poland are the second favourites to qualify with a 36.06% chance of qualification. Poland’s qualification attempt was labelled a massive disappointment. In a group they were considered to be favourites in, only picking up one point against Czechia and Moldova meant that they were comfortably beaten out to an automatic qualification spot by Albania and Czechia. This came as a surprise to many, as Poland’s squad is arguably the most talented amongst the playoff sides. Led by talisman Robert Lewandowski, the veteran striker is looking for one last chance to represent his country at a major tournament. With the experience carried by players such as Lewandowski and Wojciech Szczesny paired with the young talent of players like Jakub Kiwior and Nicola Zalewski, Poland will be massive contenders for qualification, with many tipping them to face Wales for the place in Germany.
The other two teams are significant underdogs in this pathway. Finland come into these playoffs favoured over Estonia as the third best team, with a 13.06% chance of qualification. They had a solid qualification run picking up six wins but in a competitive group, it was not enough to qualify. They face a big task if they are to overturn Wales and potentially Poland to qualify for the tournament, but do not rule them out of contention.
Estonia are considered massive underdogs going into the playoffs. They only managed one point across their eight qualification matches but earned a spot in their playoffs through their performance in the Nations League. They have never featured at a major tournament but will be looking to change that in this playoff campaign. However, it is going to take a mighty effort for them to turn around their fortunes from their qualification campaign so far.
VAVEL Qualifying Prediction: Wales
Path B
Path B is arguably the most even-matched of the three paths in the playoffs. However, Ukraine are heavy favourites to claim the second spot at Euro 2024 this time around. Ukraine are no stranger to the playoffs, having experienced heartbreak during the 2022 World Cup qualifiers after a narrow 1-0 loss to Wales saw them miss out on a spot in Qatar. This time around they begin their playoff campaign with a matchup against Bosnia and Herzegovina, with a potential final against either Israel or Iceland.
Ukraine were very impressive in their qualification group, picking up draws against both England and Italy throughout their games. However, they missed out on automatic qualification on goal difference to Italy in heartbreaking fashion. Plenty of talent lies within this Ukraine squad. Mykhalyo Mudryk has stolen the headlines across the world after his massive transfer to Chelsea, but do not overlook his fellow winger Viktor Tsigankov. The 26-year-old has enjoyed a fantastic season with Girona in Spain, who have shocked many with their amazing results in La Liga this year. Oleksandr Zinchenko and Vitalii Mykolenko have both been fantastic for Arsenal and Everton respectively this year in the Premier League, whilst Illia Zabarnyi has had a massive breakout season with Bournemouth. It would be a massive shock if Ukraine were not to qualify through this path. Fueled with the emotion from their 2022 heartbreak, this fantastic side will look to bounce back in style and return to the big stage in Germany.
If they are going to succeed, one side they will have to defeat is Israel. With many question marks around the nation and whether they will be allowed to compete at the Euros, as it stands, they face a tough semi-final matchup against Iceland. They finished third in their qualification group behind Romania and Switzerland but showed impressive glimpses of form throughout their games. However, overcoming Ukraine would be a massive task for Israel if they were to reach the final but Iceland will be no pushover.
Making a name for themselves during Euro 2016 after defeating England in the knockout stages of that tournament, the success of Icelandic football did not build up as much as they probably would have expected. Despite making history by qualifying for the 2018 World Cup, it has been slow progress for Iceland since that historic tournament. Only managing ten points in the qualifiers, it left them 12 points away from automatic qualification, also seven points behind Luxembourg in third place. Iceland will hope their recent tournament pedigree can help this new group of players through a tough playoff run to return to the spotlight.
Bosnia finished one point below Iceland in their qualification group, suffering from similar issues in terms of poor results against beatable opposition. Bosnia’s only appearance in a major tournament came in 2014 when they were eliminated in the group stages of the World Cup. They are an experienced side with many players who have played at the top level in Europe including Miralem Pjanic and the nation's top scorer and appearance maker Edin Dzeko. This paired with new talent such as Anel Ahmedhodzic and Benjamin Tahirovic, they could be an underdog side to watch.
VAVEL Qualifying Prediction- Ukraine
Path C
Path C has two teams that are seen as direct competitors and a level above the other two sides. These two sides are Greece and Georgia. The other two sides in their group are Luxembourg and Kazakhstan who are considered huge underdogs in this pathway.
Greece are a team with a massive pedigree in the Euros, as they are the only team in the playoffs and one of just ten nations who have won the whole competition. Their victory came in 2004, as they defied all the odds to defeat Portugal in the final to make history.
After this victory, they qualified for every tournament bar the 2006 World Cup up until 2014. However, since the World Cup in Brazil, they have not qualified for a major tournament. This failure marked the end of their ‘golden generation’ of football. Now in 2024, they look to end their ten-year wait for a major tournament appearance by winning their playoff matches.
Greece performed well in their qualifying group but the quality of France and Netherlands meant they had to settle for third and a playoff spot. With a lot of the Greek heroes of before now retiring, it is up to this new generation of players to bring the joy back to the Greek football fans who experienced all the highs from 2004 onwards.
Georgia are looking to gain qualification for the first time to a major tournament as they look to cap off a fantastic year of football. A new era of Georgian football talent has bloomed in the last four years, with the biggest revelation of the bunch being Khvicha Kvaratshkelia. The 23-year-old since joining Napoli has been performing at a world-class standard, getting 28 G/A last season and 15 G/A this season, he is now labelled as one of the most promising talents in world football. If Georgia has any chance of qualification, it will be spearheaded by this man’s performance. His talent alongside other talented stars such as Georges Mikautadze and Giorgi Mamardashvilli, Georgia are true contenders.
Luxembourg have been the revelation of the qualification process in 2023. Many expected this side to be near the bottom of their group, but they proved everyone wrong. They finished with 17 points and were serious contenders for automatic qualification until their heavy 9-0 defeat to Portugal and 1-0 defeat to Slovakia ended their dreams and they had to settle for a playoff spot. They are a well-coached side that are determined to do well every time they wear their country's shirt. Although they are massive underdogs in this group, they have already proved so many people wrong by reaching this stage, who is to say they cannot do it again?
Kazakhstan were another team that surprised people during their qualification group. Finishing on equal points with Finland on 18 points, they are one of the best teams to come out of the group stages into this playoff process. Picking up big victories including a headline 3-2 victory over Denmark. Ranked 100th in the world and having never qualified for a major tournament, Kazakhstan are looking to make history and will take a monumental effort from them in order to qualify this time.
VAVEL Qualifying Prediction- Georgia