In match day three of the Champions League, Arsenal secured their first victory of this season's group stage, winning 2-0 against German champions Bayern Munich in a hard-fought, resilient display where Arsene Wenger set his team up to absorb pressure from the Bavarian side and counter-attack with pace.
The game plan may have been a deviation from a typical Arsenal performance as Bayern were allowed to have possession of the ball, but Wenger’s side were desperate for a win and a win is what they got.
It was a most-needed victory as the results that preceded the first match against Bayern Munich were two less-than-stellar performances: A 2-1 loss in Croatia against Dinamo Zagreb following a Olivier Giroud red card and a 3-2 loss at home against Greek champions Olympiakos, a game where Petr Cech was controversially rested for David Ospina who then ended up scoring an own-goal during the match.
Table
Before the fourth match in Group F, Arsenal sit bottom with three points, joint with Zagreb on points but behind due to the head-to-head rule the Champions League employs for the group stages. Top place belongs to Bayern currently, who have six points but they top the group due to having beat Olympiakos 3-0 in the first match day, therefore coming out top on head-to-head themselves.
Fixtures to come
Arsenal have three games left in the group: away to Bayern Munich, home to Dinamo Zagreb before a final group match away in Piraeus against Olympiakos. Nine points are up for grabs for the side from London and if they were to come away with the full nine points, they would qualify from their group definitely as either the first place or second place team, depending on the results of Olympiakos and Bayern Munich.
A win in Bavaria is not essential and indeed, most Arsenal fans do not expect to come away from Germany with three points. A draw or even a loss would not end Arsenal’s qualification chances but would certainly toughen the process and force them to rely on head-to-head or Zagreb nicking a draw away in Greece.
Arsenal have to beat Zagreb by at least two goals to go ahead of them on head-to-head and then beat Olympiakos by at least two goals also for the same reason. The chances of Arsenal qualifying would also be greatly improved if Olympiakos are held to a draw by Zagreb on match day four, even if Arsenal fail to win themselves.
Bayern’s strength
A presumption has to be made that Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich will win their remaining two group stage matches after the game against Arsenal, with both Olympiakos and Zagreb being massively inferior to the German side coached by the Spanish man. Bayern put five past Zagreb and three past Olympiakos without reply so surely must be expected to do something similar again. Even in defeat against Arsenal, Bayern looked good and created enough chances to win the game, with Douglas Costa in particular looking dangerous throughout.
Ideal scenario
Arsenal could still top the group but they would have to win their remaining three matches to do so; victory against Bayern, Olympiakos and Zagreb would put the Gunners on 12 points. If Bayern then win their remaining two games after a second defeat to Arsenal, they would also be on 12 points but would be in second place due to head-to-head results.
Most likely scenario
Whilst every Arsenal fan would love the scenario mentioned previously as it would enable the club to face a group runner-up rather than a group winner in the next stage, it is more likely that, should Arsenal qualify, they will do say as the second place team and qualify courtesy of a better head-to-head after out-gunning Olympiakos on their own stadium when the pressure of being able to clinch qualification causes the Greek side to collapse.
Therefore, in this hypothetical situation, Bayern win the group with 13 points (two wins against Olympiakos and Zagreb plus a draw against Arsenal) or 15 points (three wins) and Arsenal will come second with nine points (loss against Bayern but a big win versus Olympiakos and victory over Zagreb) or ten points (draw against Bayern and two wins versus Zagreb and Olympiakos) whilst Olympiakos finish with nine points after beating Zagreb on home soil causing Zagreb to end the group stages with three points.
A fateful night in Greece
Essentially, the chances of Arsenal qualifying for the latter stages of the Champions League rest on beating Olympiakos away on the last match day of the group stages. The fact there are still three games to go means the guessing game of predicting how Arsenal’s group will finish is almost impossible but if it is accepted that Bayern Munich are the most likely to top the group, and that Dinamo Zagreb are the most likely to foot the group, then the difference between entering the round-of-32 in the Europa League and entering the round-of-16 in the Champions League for Arsenal depends on their match against Olympiakos in the Karaiskakis Stadium.
The bad news for Arsenal is that they have lost each of the three previous matches against Olympiakos in Greece. The good news is that should Arsenal fail to qualify for the latter stages of the Champions League, Arsene Wenger and his men can concentrate their efforts on the Europa League and/or the Premier League. Every cloud and all that, eh?