The women's semifinals get underway tomorrow at the Australian Open. In the top half of the draw, the seeds have gone according to plan with top seed Serena Williams and the 4th seed Agnieszka Radwanska playing for a place in the final.
Recent Results
Williams might not have completed a match coming in here since last year's US Open, but has looked anything but rusty this past week. The American hasn't dropped a set and claimed an 18th successive victory against the 5th seed Maria Sharapova in the quarterfinals, edging a close first set before running away with it 6-4, 6-1.
In contrast, Radwanska has been the in form player since last year's US Open, winning four titles in Asia. Agnieszka won the title in Shenzhen to begin this year and has dropped just one set in this tournament so far against Anna-Lena Friedsam in the fourth round. After recovering from 2-5 down in the third set to win that one 6-7(6), 6-1, 7-5, Radwanska was all business for the most part in taking down 10th seed Carla Suarez Navarro 6-1, 6-3.
Past Experience
A winner of 21 Grand Slam singles titles, Williams is exceptionally tough to beat at this stage of a major. The world number 1 is 25-4 in Grand Slam semifinals and has never lost in the last four at the Australian Open, going on to win the title all six times she's made it this far. The defending champion is looking for a 70th career title this week as well as looking to equal Steffi Graf's 'Open Era' record for the most Grand Slam singles titles won.
Radwanska is no stranger to this stage of Grand Slams herself. Unfortunately, the world number 4's record is nowhere near as positive as her opponent's as she's only won one of the four semifinals she's played. That was at Wimbledon 2012 when she beat Angelique Kerber before losing to Williams in the final. A winner of 18 WTA titles, Radwanska will be hoping to put on a better showing than she did in her only previous Australian Open semifinal, when she went down 6-1, 6-2 to Dominika Cibulkova in 2014.
Head-to-Head
Williams dominates the head-to-head 8-0 and has only lost one set, in the aforementioned Wimbledon final of 2012 where Williams won 6-1, 5-7, 6-2 having initially led 6-1, 4-2. On hard courts, the closest Radwanska has got was in the semifinals of Toronto 2013 when she pushed Williams before losing 7-6(3), 6-4. The two haven't played since the WTA Tour Finals 2013.
It's clear that the 34-year-old overpowers Radwanska with her huge serve and groundstrokes. She can also swat the Pole's second serve away for winners at will and isn't really put under pressure from Radwanska's baseline game, which is built on consistency rather than power.
That being said, this is Radwanska's best chance to spring an upset. The 26-year-old is currently in the best form of her life after winning big at the WTA Tour Finals last year and did actually get an unofficial win against Williams on Australian soil last year, winning 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-1 at the Hopman Cup. Her first serve and forehand have also vastly improved in the past two years since they last met officially. If she uses her inherent all court wizardry and mixes it up enough, she could pull a 'Roberta Vinci' and equal her career high of number 2 set back in 2012.
Prediction: Serena Williams in straight sets