The top seed Serena Williams will play unseeded Madison Keys in the final of the Premier Five level Internazionali BNL d'Italia (better known as the Italian Open), held on clay courts in Rome, Italy.
Recent Results
Williams has played a sparse schedule this year and was forced to withdraw from Madrid last week due to influenza. The American hasn't won a title since Cincinnati last August, losing in the finals of the Australian Open to Angelique Kerber and Indian Wells to Victoria Azarenka. Amazingly, if Williams were to fail to win the title here in Rome, it would mark the first time since 1998 that she would play the French Open without having won a title beforehand that year.
Despite her lack of match play in the past six weeks, the world number one has coasted through her matches in Rome without dropping a set. Her toughest test came in the third round against the qualifier Christina McHale where she was forced to save a set point en route to taking the first set tiebreaker. The top seed then ruthlessly dispatched Svetlana Kuznetsova 6-2, 6-0 in the quarterfinals to avenge her most recent defeat in Miami and struggled through a close, rain interrupted set before cruising against Irina-Camelia Begu 6-4, 6-1 in the semifinals.
Keys has struggled to maintain consistency this year and recently assigned the well renowned Thomas Hogstedt as her coach. The partnership appears to be working as the American reached the quarterfinals in Miami at the expense of the world number nine Roberta Vinci and now finds herself in the biggest final of her career.
Despite a difficult draw, the 21-year-old has dropped only one set this week against Barbora Strycova in the quarterfinals. More impressively, she out-powered the world number nine Petra Kvitova 6-3, 6-4 in the second round and then overcame challenging conditions to edge the world number four Garbine Muguruza 7-6(5), 6-4 in the semifinals. In doing so, it marked the first time since Eastbourne 2014 that Keys has beaten two top 10 players in the same week.
Past Experience
Williams has won more WTA titles than any other active player as she looks for her 70th title here. The 21 time Grand Slam champion has only lost a mere 19 finals in contrast and is bidding to win her fourth Italian Open title after winning in 2002, 2013 and 2014. If she were to achieve this, Williams would join the illustrious likes of Chris Evert, Gabriela Sabatini and Conchita Martinez in doing do during the Open Era (1968-Present).
Paling in comparison, Keys has won just one title from two finals played. Each time, the world number 24 encountered Angelique Kerber in the final, winning 7-5 in the third set on the grass at Eastbourne 2014 but losing by the same scoreline on the green clay at Charleston 2015. Having never advanced beyond the second round here in two previous attempts, Keys looks destined to eclipse her career high of number 16 she achieved last year.
Head-to-Head
Williams dominates the head-to-head 2-0 against Keys. Both meetings came at the hard court majors last year, Williams winning 7-6(5), 6-2 in the semifinals of the Australian Open and 6-3, 6-3 in the fourth round of the US Open.
Though 34-years-old, Williams is still an awesome powerhouse capable of overwhelming anyone with her power. Her serve is undoubtedly the best in the game and given her recent layoff, she appears fresh and motivated. What perhaps is the most impressive about the top seed is the way in which her clay court game has improved dramatically since she began her coaching involvement with Patrick Mouratoglou in 2012. Since then, Williams has added extra topspin to her groundstrokes to increase their consistency and frequently uses the drop shot to catch her opponents off guard, improvements which have seen her win two of the last three French Opens.
In contrast, Keys' success on this surface has probably come as much as a surprise to her as anyone else given that the clay doesn't complement her huge serve and risky groundstrokes. However, using a heavy kick serve and committing to work the point has enabled her to overcome some of the game's most powerful opposition this week.
In the first all-American final here since 1970, Williams has the edge. Her game and experience should put her in good stead during a high-powered contest centred around dominant serving. Breakpoints may be difficult to acquire and Keys must ensure she starts well to stand a chance. However, she must be aware not to over-press as Williams absorbs power like no one else and will relish her opponent's unforced errors.
Prediction: Serena Williams in straight sets