Dominic Calvert-Lewin having his red card rescinded this week and the subsequent three-game ban wiped clear was the right outcome as far as most fans of the sport were concerned.
The striker’s challenge in Everton’s FA Cup third-round draw away at Crystal Palace last Thursday did not warrant a red card and, in the eyes of many, was a further example of VAR going looking for trouble.
Calvert-Lewin will now be available for Everton’s hosting Aston Villa this weekend at a time when Sean Dyche’s resources are being stretched and the team are in need of an uplift after a run of three consecutive Premier League defeats.
As much as the 26-year-old’s availability will be welcomed by Dyche — the Everton manager said he was “thankful for the process” of voiding the red card but “a bit concerned with how it ended up there in the first place” — he will now be wanting his leading striker to step up.
Appearances have come more frequently for Calvert-Lewin so far this term as his injury woes have receded and he has featured in 16 of Everton’s 20 league games, starting 13 of them. But the No.9 has scored only three goals and a lack of firepower up front has been an area of concern at times for Dyche.
Calvert-Lewin remains integral to Everton’s approach, and his hold-up play is a key attribute that the manager looks to harness, but he has now gone 12 matches without finding the back of the net and is showing an inevitable lack of confidence in the opposition’s penalty area.
His form will only come under greater scrutiny when Villa come to Goodison Park on Sunday and bring their own England international to lead the attack. Whereas Calvert-Lewin has failed to build a head of steam this season, Ollie Watkins has been a consistent performer for Unai Emery’s team.
Watkins has started four more games than Calvert-Lewin in the league but has scored six more goals. The Villa striker has also provided eight assists for team-mates whereas his Everton counterpart has not managed one.
What’s perhaps most telling is Watkins’s clinical nature compared to Calvert-Lewin. The number of goals that Calvert-Lewin would have been expected to score given the quality of his chances is 6.92, which is almost four goals less than he has actually managed.
Meanwhile, Watkins’ scoring rate is exactly level with his xG. Therefore, put simply, Watkins is taking his chances. And that is only underlined further by his superior goal-per-game ratio of 0.5 compared to Calvert-Lewin’s 0.2.
Drilling further into the numbers, Watkins has on average marginally more touches per game (27.9 compared to 24.2) which suggests that both see the ball as much as the other but one appears to be making better use of it.
Watkins is firing Villa to new heights
The natural caveat to this is that Villa are a more attacking team than Everton. Emery’s side are second in the table for many reasons, and scoring 43 goals is certainly one of them. Everton, in contrast, have only scored 24 in the same number of games.
Watkins has explained that his form is a result of finding rhythm with consistent game-time in recent seasons and also utilising the expertise of a coach of Emery’s pedigree. Calvert-Lewin may count himself unlucky on both parts.
With a spot as deputy striker behind Harry Kane still available in Gareth Southgate’s England squad for this summer’s European Championship, there is still much for the pair to play for.
The Everton striker has 11 England caps to date, and has scored four goals, but has not featured in over two-and-a-half years, while Watkins has nine caps and three goals and remains a regular squad member.
The Villa man is in the driving seat in terms of selection but it is fair to say that, when given the opportunity, neither has truly excelled for the national team. Both will hope to be the difference-makers for their clubs this weekend and beyond.
Everton have not won any of their last five matches in all competitions, although arguably some of their performances warranted greater reward, and Dyche admitted that “errors have cost us badly”. They could enter this weekend’s fixture in the bottom three should Luton defeat Burnley tonight.
Meanwhile, Villa will aim to go joint-top of the league with Liverpool, who do not play this weekend. Taking chances is something Villa are doing well this season. Everton need to improve in this area and will hope, after his VAR reprieve, Calvert-Lewin can play his part in that.