Could This Be The Season Fulham Avoid The Drop Back To The Championship?

An analysis of how Marco Silva's men have got off to a great start in the Premier League

Could This Be The Season Fulham Avoid The Drop Back To The Championship?
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By James Kirwan

Alexsander Mitrovic puts the ball on the spot, he has just won his side a penalty after bamboozling one of the worlds best defenders, Virgil Van Dijk, and forcing the foul. The Serbian marksman converted his penalty to put Fulham back into the lead for the second time in the game. Though they would go onto draw the game, the West London side rightly felt aggrieved not to have taken all three points. 

What is most surprising about the result is that it is against last season’s Premier League runners up Liverpool. Pipped to the title by a point by Manchester City last season, Jurgen Klopp’s men struggled to cope with Fulham’s intensity. Marco Silva’s men won 63.5% of their duels to Liverpool’s 36.5% and 63.9% of their aerial duels to the Anfield sides 36.1%. The timid Fulham of previous seasons in the Premier League looks set to change.

A further point was gained in a forgettable draw with Wolves at Molineux before a pulsating last minute winner from marksman Mitrovic, secured a win in the first ever Premier League West London Derby meeting against Brentford. The question over the club on yet another return to the Premier League, could they become more than just another yo-yo club? The signs in the opening games look very encouraging.

How Fulham have started the season so well

On the way to securing The Championship title last season, Marco Silva’s men played some of the best football seen at Craven Cottage for a long time. Scoring 106 goals (Mitrovic bagging 43 in 44 games), boasting possession stats of around 61% per game, they were in control of most of their matches and kept the second highest number of clean sheets; Fulham were simply ruthless for the majority of the campaign. 

This season, though still playing a high pressing game, the focus has shifted to a more pragmatic approach. With the step up in quality from The Championship to the Premier League that is to be expected. Possession numbers have dropped drastically down to 39.1% (the lowest in the division), instead Fulham prefer to allow the opposition the ball and press high up the field to win possession to start attacks. 

The key to their success so far has been the defensive workload the side has put in. The men from Craven Cottage have made the most interception & tackles in the league with one hundred-thirty five (twenty-three clear of Tottenham in second), won more aerial duels than any other side with seventy three (fifteen clear of Aston Villa),  Harrison Reed has made the most ball recoveries of any player in the league with thirty-seven and the side are averaging only 1.3 goals conceded, placing them above the likes of top six clubs such as Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United in this regard. 

From an attacking standpoint, the plan has been to utilize star man Mitrovic’s aerial prowess and strength up front, Fulham have been a lot more direct in their approach play. Alongside their possession numbers, their passing stats are among the lowest in the league. It has worked so far with the Serb having his best start to a Premier League season. The approach has been to get the ball wide and get crosses into the box to the big Serb to capitalize on his strength in the air. 

His effectiveness in the opening game of the season was Mitrovic at his very best. It has been a long time since Liverpool’s Virgil Van Dijk struggled against an opponent. Pressing relentlessly from the front, winning his aerial and one v one duels; it was a masterclass in forward play. The performance was capped with a towering back post header and scoring a penalty he had won, after forcing the flustered Van Dijk into the foul. 

Arguably up there with the most impressive forwards of the opening three games, his stats back up a man out to show he belongs at this level. Three in three and joint second with Manchester City striker Erling Haaland in the expected goals tally, the Serb looks a different player from the one who struggled in the top flight in 20/21. Of course given his profile, Mitrovic has also won the most aerial duels, with twenty-five, eleven clear of the nearest player. Quite simply no Premier League defense will fancy facing the forward on current form. 

Two key signings for the West London club have been the purchases of Andreas Pereira from Manchester United and Joao Palhinha from Sporting Lisbon. Much derided during his time at Old Trafford, Pereira has been a revelation since his transfer. The Brazilian looks like a player reborn, given creative license by Silva, his intelligent movement and distribution as well as his willingness to get on the ball and start attacks have seen him quickly become a fans favorite at Craven Cottage. His excellent close control allows him to beat players and win free kicks, something Fulham will hope to capitalize on in their bid to stay up this season. 

Palhinha has also hit the ground running, the Portuguese is building a dynamic partnership with fellow midfielder Harrison Reed. The former Sporting player sits in front of the back four, operating as a deep lying playmaker ensuring his side always have an outlet in the build up play.  Though not spectacular with his distribution, Palhinha ensures that Fulham do not give the ball away needlessly. Alongside this he shields the back four brilliantly, providing protection and allowing the energetic Reed and Pereira to get forward to support the attack. 

Where Fulham could struggle as the season progresses

There is no such thing as secrets in football anymore but Fulham definitely have caught teams on the hop in their first three games. The question is can they sustain the excellent start?

Mitrovic is an excellent forward on his day but an emphasis of playing only to his strengths could lead to other clubs adapting their style of play to counter this. As the season progresses being so one dimensional could hurt Fulham in the long-term. Their low possession stats need to improve to enable them to create better quality chances and not just rely on crosses as an outlet for goals and chance creation.

If the Serb were to suffer a loss of form or receive a serious injury, the worry would be where the goals will come from. Decordova-Reid and Kebano are not known for their profligacy in front of goal and with Manor Solomon picking up a serious knee injury, the club are very light on forward options. With still a few days of the window left surely Silva is pushing owner Tony Khan hard to get some more recruits to bolster the squad. 

As already mentioned, the defense has been excellent so far this season. As they continue to play a high line and make use of the offside trap, new goalkeeper Leno will have to be sharp in sweeping behind his back four. The aging American Tim Ream will be targeted due to his lack of speed, sides with explosive forwards could find joy in the space he might leave behind. This was one of many weaknesses in Fulham’s back line in their relegation season of 20/21.