For the first time in since 2011, there will be a new champion in Beijing. With four-time defending champion Novak Djokovic skipping the event, a deep field featuring two of the big four will do battle to claim the first 500-level event of the fall. It is an opportunity for Race to London hopefuls to make a charge towards qualifying for the ATP World Tour Finals. Let’s take a look ahead to the China Open.
Top Quarter: Murray’s clear path
With Djokovic’s withdrawal, world number two Andy Murray is the top seed in Beijing and has been given a pretty clear path. While he could have a little bit of trouble in his opening match against Andreas Seppi, there is really nothing that can stop him from reaching the semis. Three of the eight spots in his quarters are qualifiers. Should he beat Seppi, he will face either Andrey Kuznetsov or a qualifier.
Joining Murray in the top quarter is Roberto Bautista Agut, the seventh seed, who needs a big chunk of points to keep his flicker of a hope of qualifying for London alive this week. The Spaniard opens against a qualifier and will face either another qualifier or countryman Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the second round. That would set up a likely quarterfinal clash with Murray, who he has never beaten.
Quarterfinal prediction: Murray d. Bautista Agut
Second Quarter: Thiem’s nightmare
Dominic Thiem took a wildcard into Beijing and is seeded fourth, but the young Austrian has the hardest draw of anyone. He opens against recent St. Petersburg champion Alexander Zverev and could play Jack Sock in the second round, assuming the American takes down local Ze Zhang. That’s just to reach the quarters. It’s a good thing for Thiem that he’s already in a qualifying position in London because he is staring down a gauntlet.
The other part of that quarter doesn’t get much easier. Fifth seed David Ferrer should not have much trouble with Pablo Cuevas in the first round, but he will be challenged in the second when he plays either Viktor Troicki or Fabio Fognini. Whoever comes out of that mess will play whoever survives Thiem’s nightmare in the quarters.
Quarterfinal prediction: Zverev d. Troicki
Third Quarter: Raonic seeking bounce-back
Historically, this has been a week where Milos Raonic has performed well. However, his three finals in the first week of October all came in Tokyo. He switched to Beijing last year and lost in the first round. He is coming off a shocking opening round loss as defending champion in St. Petersburg. Lucky for the third-seeded Canadian, he has a fairly easy draw in Beijing. He opens against Florian Mayer and will play either Malek Jaziri or Guido Pella in the second round. None of those players are nearly as strong on hard courts as Raonic.
Eighth seed Richard Gasquet has a very difficult opening match as he will take on the big-hitting Sam Querrey. While the Frenchman is clearly in good form having reached the final this week in Shenzen, exhaustion could be a factor. The winner of that match will play the winner between Bernard Tomic and Pablo Carreno Busta, with that winner going on to likely play Raonic in the quarterfinals.
Quarterfinal prediction: Raonic d. Tomic
Bottom quarter: Nadal’s opportunity
Rafael Nadal, the second seed once again in Beijing, has lost two of the last three finals in Beijing. But without Novak Djokovic, his conqueror in both of those finals, out of the picture, this could be his year to reclaim the title he won in 2005. More good news for the only former China Open champion in the draw is that he should have no trouble reaching the quarterfinals. He opens against Paolo Lorenzi and will play either compatriot Albert Ramos-Vinolas or a qualifier in the second round.
The quarterfinal in this section could be a grudge match as the other seed is Lucas Pouille, who beat Nadal in the quarterfinals of the US Open. Pouille, who won the first title of his career last week in Metz, will open against the ever-tricky Yen Hsun-Lu. If he wins that, he will face a tough task in the form of either Steve Johnson or Grigor Dimitrov in the second round. The Frenchman is going to have to run a gauntlet just to set up the rematch with Nadal.
Quarterfinal prediction: Nadal d. Pouille