On the 21st of January, a very out-of-form Leicester side host seventh-placed Brighton.
Leicester is yet to pick up a Premier League point since the World Cup and faces a Brighton team who have picked up nine points out of a possible 12 - their only loss post-World cup coming against top-of-the-table Arsenal.
This game will be full of many tactical battles and could be massive in the reign of Brendan Rodgers, who many Leicester fans believe has taken this team as far as he can, with an ageing squad playing with no confidence. In contrast, they are against a Brighton side which is in the form of its life.
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Styles of play
Due to the injuries of James Maddison, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Boubakary Soumare, Leicester has been forced into a double pivot of Wilfred N’didi and Namplays Mendy in recent weeks. Putting Youri Tielemans in the number 10 position means they play in a similar midfield structure to Brighton, with both teams having the two midfielders just above the two central defenders and allowing the full-backs to get high.
Roberto De Zerbi deploys Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo in front of the two central defenders and this is key for De Zerbi’s style of play where he looks to invite the press and then use the quality ball-playing ability of Levi Colwill and Lewis Dunk to play through, creating an overload in the attacking third.
However, with Colwill out, this burden will fall to Adam Webster or Jean-Paul Van Hecke. Whilst Webster is a very good long passer of the ball, his short game and ability to deal with pressure isn’t as good as Colwill's; Webster is prone to the odd mistake when pressed.
Similarly, it would be a lot to ask for young Van Hecke; however, both options have lots of quality and are still very good defenders in their own right, despite Van Hecke not having a Premier League start and Webster just returning from injury.
The Seagulls becoming more familiar with the passing patterns is allowing them to be very effective in attack and this was very clear against Liverpool in their 3-0 victory. This could prove very effective against a team who presses the way Leicester usually do.
The Foxes generally do not press as one unit as each play has an individual way of pressing. Marc Albrighton and Jamie Vardy press well and aggressively, however, Barnes and Tielemans are both quite reluctant pressers, meaning that Brighton will be able to beat the press very easily.
Brighton’s players are fantastic at playing the long ball which can make Leicester’s pressing redundant. Lewis Dunk has averaged 4.91 long passes per game, using this to start attacks and clear the ball if Leicester's press begins to pose a threat.
Ferguson and Welbeck make these long balls even more effective as their ability to hold up the ball means Brighton can then start attacks from higher up the pitch.
The aggressive nature of Wout Faes will make this a difficult task but with the retention skills of Lallana this could still be an advantage for Brighton and if Lallana or Fergurson can occupy Faes to win this ball then Brighton could go 3 on 3 against Leicester’s defence.
Leicester tries and plays a similar way to Brighton in terms of keeping the ball (and outside of the traditional big 6 only Brighton has had more of the ball) and playing out from the back, the way they try and play and they use the double pivot they to allow their full-backs to get as high up the pitch as possible however the quality of Wout Faes, Daniel Amartey, Wilfred Ndidi, Danny Ward and Namplays Mendy is not good enough to play this way when on the ball which limits their ability to play through the lines and attack.
Therefore, Leicester does not get up the pitch as well because they lack the creativity and quality required to play through the press. Despite having lots of the ball Leicester has only made 183 passes in the opposition half per game compared to Brighton’s 216.
Leicester have liked to keep the ball all throughout Rodgers’ tenure at the club and this year is no different with them averaging 51.7% possession. However, the change of shape from the previous 4-1-4-1 to a 4-2-3-1 has led to them playing deeper and their central midfielders not finding the spaces that they used to reduce the number of chances they can create.
Tielemans and Dewsbury-Hall used to play as very traditional wide centre midfielders, playing in between Ndidi and the winger and playing high up the pitch. This meant that the wide player could pick up the ball more often and get at the penalty box as well as being able to recycle the ball.
By using the double pivot, this way of playing becomes impossible as the players are just too deep and it will be Brighton’s midfield doing most of the defensive work. This lack of attacking intent is one of the reasons why Leicester have gone from 1.6 goals per game last year to a miserly 1.4 this year.
Despite being a top-quality footballer with bags of ability, Tielemans is making just 1.1 key passes per game this season whereas before his injury Maddison made 2.4 key passes per game which is another reason why it hasn’t worked for Leicester. With Caicedo and Mac Allister playing for Brighton, this midfield battle could be a very key battle that Leicester lose at the weekend.
This makes me doubt how well Leicester will be able to exploit Brighton’s weaknesses as they have often conceded goals after losing the ball and getting undone by fast-paced football on a counter-attack and I don’t think the quality of Leicester's midfield is good enough to do this making things very easy for Brighton to defend.
But when Brighton goes forwards they could very easily overpower the Leicester City defence with their speed on the ball and ability to break the lines and will use Leicester’s lack of athleticism in midfield to their advantage by moving the ball quickly.
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Changes of shape
Against teams who are likely to have more of the ball Leicester have been known to use a back three and Brighton’s ability to keep hold of the ball means this would not be a surprise. If this system is used the most probable lineup would be:
Ward
Amartey Faes Evans/Soyuncu
Castagne Mendy Tielemans Thomas
Albrighton Barnes
Vardy
In this system Leicester’s forwards offer very little width and look to use the two wingers to create some controlled chaos for the opposition defence by having very flexible positions and getting them to play to their strengths, Barnes will be very wide and Albrighton will be picking the ball up fairly centrally to use his passing ability to try and unlock Brighton and Vardy will be the focal point up front looking to use his instinct and finishing to score any half chances that may come his way.
This could prove dangerous to Brighton if these attackers have enough time on the ball, however, they still won’t be able to use Brighton’s weaknesses to their advantage. However, by inviting this pressure and making the centre midfielders play higher up the pitch, Barnes will be able to get onto the ball and run one v one against Pascal Gross who will be at right-back - this is a battle that Leicester could win.
The quality of Dunk in the middle of the defence will be able to stop Vardy meaning this match-up with Barnes will be Leicester’s most likely source of chances and really emphasizes his importance to the Foxes.
However, in this system, I think the midfield will still be an issue for Leicester as they simply can’t match Brighton’s quality in that area of the pitch. Therefore, I expect the midfield to drop off instead of going toe to toe with Caicedo and Mac Allister and trying to cut off the supply to Lallana, Mitoma and March.
This could make for a very interesting battle and mean Leicester will play out of Brighton’s hands and would really make them work for these points. It means there will be no press to play through which means Brighton can’t create the overloads on defenders that De Zerbi likes without committing too many men forwards.
When Leicester play in this formation they tend to play a very low block where the two wide centre-backs tend to go man for man on their opposite number and these would be the areas which Brighton could exploit with the one-on-one qualities of March, Mitoma and even Jeremy Sarmiento off the bench.
They also have the stature of Evan Ferguson up front which gives Brighton a position which they never really had as the young Irishman is tall enough to get on the end of crosses that are in the air and give another option for Brighton when going forwards.
If Leicester does play this formation I think two other players will be particularly key in the build-up for Brighton: Pascal Gross and Adam Lallana.
Under De Zerbi Gross plays as an inverted fullback and could be key in creating the “controlled chaos” De Zerbi likes as by moving closer to the middle of the pitch he could drag the left wing-back out of position and create space for Solly March to go one on one against the left centre back.
Whilst Adam Lallana will play in a very different way to Gross, he could create a similar outcome in terms of allowing Brighton to create more chances. Lallana will aim to find pockets of space in between defence and midfield, looking to turn towards the defence and find himself some space, using his immense technical ability and creativity to play a pass-through, ultimately breaking down the Leicester defence.
Overall, if Leicester goes with a four at the back they will be left exposed and Brighton will pull them apart much as they did against Everton the other week.
However, in a three at the back, I believe it may take a bit more time and may be a bit harder to break down but I still believe Brighton’s quality out wide means they are still too good for Leicester.